OrderFlow charts and Notes 15/07/15

[08:50]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:51]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-15th-july-2/
[08:51]   r m : http://vtrender.com/orderflow-charts-and-notes-140715/
[08:51]   r m : http://vtrender.com/option-values-dt-140715/
[08:51]   Porus : GM RM
[08:51]   r m : Hi Porus
[08:52]   Sumit K : GM r m
[08:52]   r m : Hi Sumit
[08:52]   r m : Nifty JUL Future levels | Key reference area 8435 | Hypo1 above 8480➜8503➜8536 SL 8452 | Hypo2 below 8434➜8413➜8396 SL 8455
[08:52]   Manoj : GM RM
[08:52]   Manoj : GM all
[08:52]   r m : Hi Manoj
[08:52]   r m : Banknifty JUL Future levels | KRA 18878 | Hypo1 above 18949➜19080➜19190 SL 18870 | Hypo2 below 18800➜18738➜18666 SL 18895
[08:53]   Vikkas C : GM all
[08:56]   Kris : GM All 🙂
[08:57]   Porus : Hi Kris
[08:57]   r m : Hi Kris
[08:57]   Hemant : GM folks
[08:58]   Sandeep : Good morning all
[08:59]   Shai : GM all
[08:59]   Shailesh : GM all
[08:59]   Manoj : GM kris & shai
[08:59]   Mohul : GM all
[09:01]   Sharad : GM all
[09:04]   Ashish : GM all
[09:04]   Srini A : GM All
[09:05]   Tejpreet : GM All
[09:10]   Sudhakar : GM Shai,Rm &All frnds
[09:11]   Shai : sgx pointing to a flattish open
[09:11]   Kiran : GM all
[09:11]   Shai : saw some selling at 8480 who if they cover can create 8503 per hypo
[09:11]   Shai : but safe new longs abv 8503 F on day
[09:12]   r m : Hi Sudhakar
[09:13]   Moses : GM All
[09:15]   Kathir : GM Shai RM kris all friends
[09:16]   Shailesh : Chart working ?
[09:17]   Kathir : BNF kra 18878 and high same 18878 🙂
[09:18]   Kathir : no charts
[09:18]   Shai : Charts take a min or 2 to fire up in morning with new data added overnight
[09:19]   Venkatesan : gm shai,rm,kris and frends
[09:19]   Shai : not streaming?
[09:19]   Manoj : took A 30 pt quike in bnf entrd long in 18864 & exit @ 18894
[09:20]   Kathir : congrats Manoj
[09:20]   Shai : NF is a long abv 8476 VAH today
[09:21]   Shai : NF buy abv 8503 tgt 8536 sl of 8473
[09:22]   Shai : BNF buy abv 18910 sl of 18850 tgt 18950/ 19010
[09:23]   Kris : If someone got into 8300PE yesterday – have an SL of 36 or so. I will continue holding them for a couple of days.
[09:26]   Manoj : buy on ???
[09:26]   Naveen : nf bought
[09:26]   Manoj : in nf
[09:27]   Dhrumil : NF & BNF Buy Triggered ….
[09:28]   Manoj : bot nf @ 8500.35
[09:30]   Hemant : Kris, what are you expectation with 8300 PE?
[09:31]   Kris : @Hemant – it is a positional buy – with MO in upwards of 50!
[09:31]   Kris : so – will expect a touch of 70-80 once atleast – if not more.
[09:31]   Shailesh : Shai volume of almost 12 lakh..gud to start the day?
[09:31]   Sumit : GM everyone
[09:32]   Hemant : MO yesterday was above 50, so we are hoping it crosses over 60+ today? and hence hope for a down move?
[09:32]   Kris : yes – 8500 PCR itself is very bad – and will be difficult to sustain above 8500 – till more writing happens here.
[09:33]   RK : GM Shai,RM and all
[09:33]   Hemant : Great
[09:33]   Shai : not a lot of conviction in this move up
[09:33]   Kiran : bought BNF 18910
[09:33]   r m : Hi RK
[09:33]   Hemant : I suppose Kris this would be a time to add to some puts?
[09:33]   Shai : need more buyers in greens
[09:33]   Kathir : hI rk
[09:34]   Shailesh : alright Shai thats wht i was loking for
[09:34]   Shai : BNF keep 18950 as part booking order in system
[09:38]   Kris : yes Hemant.
[09:38]   Suyash : r m – could you help me with the profile chart of 7/7 ?
[09:38]   Suyash : It’s opening the profile of 8/7 on the blog
[09:38]   Kris : Well – we are more or less here at 8530 which Shai wanted – so – time to get into full PE – and wait for a day or two!
[09:39]   RK : Hi Kathir
[09:39]   Shai : little bit of buying coming back
[09:39]   Manoj : booked part nf @ 8521.25
[09:41]   Hemant : Ok Kris 🙂
[09:41]   Shai : Book part NF 8525 revise upper tgt of 8545 and keep sl at 8502
[09:43]   Hemant : Shai, Kris, would shorting 8500 CE help too in that case?
[09:43]   Shai : we would be patient with BNF here- it is into that 80% rule as well and would like that yesterday seller to be tgtd at 19008
[09:44]   Shai : it didn’t work out yesterday afternoon but here is a chance to make ammends
[09:45]   Kris : @Hemant – we are at a breakout – shorting 8500CE is much riskier.
[09:45]   Kris : 8300PE – max risk is 32 – and – it wont reach zero just like that – but if it breaks out – 8500CE can even go to 300 🙂
[09:46]   Hemant : Ok Kris will revise 🙂
[09:46]   Manoj : now happy with zero position
[09:47]   Hemant : How about 8700 CE?
[09:47]   Manoj : all booked
[09:50]   Shailesh : 8500 call writers some has given up…oi down
[09:53]   Kiran : 18950 high but order not filled.
[09:56]   Kris : @Shai – take a bow – here is your 8530+!
[09:56]   Srini A : +1 Krish 🙂
[09:56]   Hemant : Well done Shai 🙂
[09:56]   r m : (*** Private to Suyash ) http://screencast.com/t/GoYoL9IiL sorry for delay
[09:57]   Kris : @Rm – MO is at?
[09:57]   Shai : Thanks guys – but I got an axe to gring with BNF here 🙂
[09:57]   Shai : grind*
[09:58]   Shai : vah hit in BNF
[09:58]   Shai : FA visist is pending
[09:58]   Kris : @Shai – BN might take NF another 30 points?
[09:58]   Kris : that extra push when MO crosses 60?
[09:58]   Shai : can part book BNF and raise sl to 18900
[10:00]   Vikkas C : @RM what is MO now ?
[10:00]   r m : MO at +72
[10:01]   Vikkas C : thanx RM
[10:01]   r m : welcome
[10:06]   Shai : The early part of the move seems dne here
[10:06]   Shai : we look for a trigger above IBH to confirm if it is a trend day
[10:07]   Shai : sl on all longs are at vwap now minus small fliter
[10:07]   Manoj : but bnf seriously underperformed right ???
[10:07]   Shai : sellers will come and take it to yesterday vah if vwap breaks
[10:07]   Shai : yes Manoj for now it is
[10:08]   Sudhakar : 8440 shai?
[10:08]   Vikkas C : 8476
[10:11]   Shai : vah 8476
[10:12]   Shai : for quick ref look at top left of 5 min charts
[10:12]   Shai : we have the weekly lvn’s and prev day values there
[10:12]   Sudhakar : ok shai
[10:14]   r m : Banknifty profile is like those wooden toys of yesteryears, each fitting inside the bigger one 🙂 http://screencast.com/t/1LTqmr5bxX
[10:14]   Venkatesan : lol @ rm
[10:16]   Shai : BNF
[10:17]   Naveen : so we can short nf below 8513??
[10:18]   Shai : why 8513?
[10:18]   r m : vwap
[10:19]   Shai : below 8502 with sl just abv vwap if looking for shorts tgt 8478
[10:20]   Shai : we are seeing profit booking at these highs
[10:20]   Vikkas C : can BNF spoil the party for nifty shai ?
[10:20]   Shai : can
[10:21]   Vikkas C : cool thanx
[10:21]   r m : @Shai, first an attempt should be made to enter longs at vwap with small stop to see if trend day is intact?
[10:38]   Shai : yes see greens a vwap and then enter
[10:38]   r m : Thanks
[10:38]   Shai : this looks like a P to me
[10:38]   Shai : could stay 8504- 8545
[10:38]   r m : ok
[10:38]   Manoj : guys 1 msg not related to mkt
[10:39]   Manoj : Some facts:Shahid kapoor 35 married Mira rajput 21 who is 14 years younger to take revenge with Kareena who married Saif who is 14 years elder to Kareena.Observations:Instead of doing this Shahid should have married Saif Ali Khan daughter who is also 21 years and made Kareena his mother in law….that wud have been a SWEET REVENGE
[10:39]   Manoj : sorry mods
[10:39]   Hemant : 🙂
[10:40]   Shailesh : Shai 8600 call can be a buy now ?
[10:40]   RK : looks like another kind of day where index move done by morning and rest of the day stocks do all the job
[10:40]   Shailesh : 62 major res…trading at 59 touched 64 and come back?
[10:42]   Shai : Shailesh that 62 was an end of day number much like the 8536 here in F
[10:42]   Manoj : bnf again very close to Vwap
[10:42]   Shai : we will allow it a few points
[10:42]   Shai : if by afternoon we are abv and looking to close then we buy fresh for 87
[10:43]   Shai : right now look to reduce index longs
[10:43]   Shailesh : alright shai thanks 🙂
[10:46]   Naveen : are we getting responsive selling here shai??
[10:47]   Shai : no not yet
[10:53]   Rahul G : shai can you zoom in a bit for niftt
[10:53]   Vikkas C : huge buying in BNF happening shai ?
[10:53]   Vikkas C : at vwap
[10:56]   Abhishek : hi all gm
[10:56]   Shai : rahul done
[10:56]   Shai : yes Vikkas buying efforts being made
[10:57]   Rahul G : thanks
[10:57]   Sandeep : shai any trade here was not there in the morning
[10:57]   Manoj : 18965 does it looks wil come b4 hitting our tsl ???
[10:59]   Kathir : @manoj you are afraid of bnf SL’s 🙂
[10:59]   Vikkas C : shai if at all BNF does come ard 19000 then can a 18500pe be bought ?
[11:01]   Manoj : shai tht last 15 min candle opnd & closed @ exact same lvl went 25 pt up & 24 pt down & closed @ 18925
[11:08]   Tejpreet : Shai the next target of this upmove on weekly scale is 8620 ?
[11:09]   Shai : Vikkas BNf has to break y’day lows for tha PE to make an impression
[11:09]   Vikkas C : thanx shai
[11:09]   Shai : so far on day there is no evidence of big wekness in BNF
[11:10]   Shai : Sandeep look to get into longs near 8225- 30 with sl of 8502 for 8545/ 8563
[11:11]   Shai : 8525- 8530**
[11:11]   Shai : Yes tejpreet
[11:11]   Sandeep : okay
[11:19]   Shai : that first move abv IBH not getting greens
[11:24]   Naveen : Shai, today’s move done by OTF?
[11:29]   Shai : yes otf at open
[11:29]   Shai : but now they are gone
[11:30]   John : @Shai, yesterday’s FII OI was an hint for today’s morning move in NF?
[11:30]   Kathir : @RM views on FII’s this pas two days?
[11:32]   r m : @Kathir, seems to be biased towards longs http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/fiioi7.png
[11:34]   Kathir : @RM thanks
[11:34]   r m : welcome
[11:35]   Shai : BNF not making any attempts to move abv vah yet
[12:01]   Sumit K : r m – MO ?
[12:18]   Shai : NF – go long again abv 8547 sl of 8527 tgt 8565 and 8588. Hold till close- trade a 50% size
[12:19]   Shai : buy abv**
[12:19]   r m : @Sumit, MO cooled down to +65, the way stocks are climbing in a stampede it may end up higher
[12:19]   Shai : current profile of NF is simmilar to 22/05 and 07/07 in the same area
[12:20]   Manoj : shai view on bnf ???
[12:20]   Shai : we will take annother bullish bet abv 8545 estimate and wait on a short covering rise
[12:21]   Shai : BNF falt here till VAH is not crossed
[12:21]   Shai : flat*
[12:21]   Shai : can take a 40 point trade abv 18965 with a sl of 18930 for 19005
[12:21]   Shai : again less qty size
[12:21]   Manoj : it is just rotating Btwn DVah & DVal
[12:22]   Manoj : ok
[12:22]   Shai : yes
[12:22]   Manoj : thnks
[12:22]   Shai : NF also trade is good as long as IBH is maintained by these new greens
[12:24]   Shai : To play the MO at close would suggest to buy one lot of 8550 pe and sell 2 lots of 8300 pe against it
[12:25]   r m : oops, posted in wrong place 🙂
[12:25]   Shai : for only those who are used to writing
[12:25]   Shai : can do it near close or do it when vwap breaks anytime before close
[12:26]   Hemant : 8545 just hit and its trying
[12:32]   Ashish : Europe opens flat
[12:32]   Manoj : ekdum flat
[12:33]   Shai : exit all BNF
[12:33]   Porus : but DAX futures were falling. Expect the index to dip too.
[12:33]   Shai : we will look for a fresh one there
[12:33]   Manoj : ok
[12:33]   Ashish : Thanks porus for info
[12:38]   Naveen : nf buy triggered
[12:41]   Shai : yes
[12:41]   Manoj : yes baveen even i am long
[12:41]   Manoj : *naveen
[12:41]   Naveen : 🙂
[12:46]   Shai : It’s a sl or tgt trade- hold till close
[12:49]   Abhishek : Shai BNF 18860 can buy here
[12:49]   Mohul : SL in system?
[12:53]   Varun : Whats vwap @shai
[12:53]   Manoj : hello varun
[12:53]   r m : should be near 8520
[12:54]   Vikkas C : 8526
[12:54]   r m : ok
[12:55]   Varun : thanks
[12:55]   Vikkas C : 🙂
[12:58]   RK : we got one basket pump here
[13:00]   Augustin : @Shai – Can get into 8600CE ?
[13:01]   Shai : Augustin that CE looks risky
[13:01]   Shai : suggest avoid
[13:01]   Shai : we are just playing an intra long move to close
[13:02]   Augustin : Ok
[13:02]   Augustin : Plan is to get into 8550 PE at close?
[13:03]   Shai : yes hedged for price benefit
[13:04]   Augustin : Ok
[13:22]   Manoj : sl missed by 30 paise
[13:24]   Tejpreet : Shai below vwap in NF can we go for VAH 8476.
[13:27]   Shai : posible 8503/ 8476
[13:30]   Shai : NF seeling buying at vwap
[13:31]   RK : Shai havent seen in many days that we revolve around LVN for such longer time! So base is being built here or kind of resistance..how should we take this?
[13:32]   Shai : if we don’t collapse it is acceptance
[13:32]   RK : Have always seen LVNs just push the price
[13:32]   RK : ok got it
[13:32]   Shai : these are weekly and I generally allow 20 pints around it in NF
[13:33]   Shai : just like 8455
[13:33]   RK : got it
[13:43]   Kathir : @RK nice Q – very usefull thanks
[13:45]   Vikkas C : nf staying abv vwap and bnf staying below vwap ..divergent views
[13:49]   Shai : yes
[13:49]   Shai : BNF can do 18950 again here sl of 18855
[13:49]   Vikkas C : ok thanx shai
[13:50]   Abhishek : i was abt to long @ 18860
[13:52]   Srini A : Jaitley Bhaashan 🙂
[13:58]   Shai : exit the NF long trade if 8538 breaks again
[14:02]   Manthan : if BN goes 950+ i think 19000+ may be there
[14:04]   RK : buyers think sellers will take this mkt down and sellers think vice versa and we are stuck for 4 hrs now 🙂
[14:05]   Hemant : 🙂
[14:06]   Srini A : The only positive for bulls is CNBC is negative!
[14:07]   r m : 🙂
[14:07]   John : 🙂
[14:07]   r m : half the battle is won then 🙂
[14:07]   Manoj : 🙂
[14:12]   Sripathi : how do u play MO?. Any article?.
[14:12]   Sripathi : as far as i know eod MO >65 buy puts.
[14:12]   Sripathi : eod MO <-60 then buy calls.
[14:13]   Abhishek : yes above 60 buy puts a
[14:15]   r m : @Sripathi, for those who are used to writing options Shai suggested
[14:15]   r m : (12:24) Shai :To play the MO at close would suggest to buy one lot of 8550 pe and sell 2 lots of 8300 pe against it(12:25) Shai :for only those who are used to writing(12:25) Shai :can do it near close or do it when vwap breaks anytime before close
[14:16]   Shai : exit NF longs – not staying abv IBH
[14:16]   Manoj : i took tht bnf call
[14:16]   Manoj : hold or exit??
[14:16]   Manoj : i took @ 18906
[14:17]   Sripathi : understood today call. asking in general, what is the best way to play
[14:17]   Hemant : Sripathi, thanks to RM, MO has been broken down as a simple indicator. Ofcourse other information is also useful to figure out what to do & confirm trades (which Shai and team are brilliant at) . That 8536 NF was just brilliant 🙂
[14:17]   Shai : exit Manoj
[14:17]   Manoj : ok
[14:18]   Shai : Sripathi it is best to play at -60 and +60 as you have mentioned
[14:18]   Shai : has to be positional and willing to stay for 2- 5 sessions
[14:18]   Shai : sometimes it may not give the result in 1 session as MO can stay at that level for some time if mkt is balanced
[14:19]   Shai : it’s a low risk high return play and we have seen it deliver 9/10 times
[14:20]   Sandeep : shai and rm then please update Mo before closing
[14:21]   Sandeep : so that we can trade
[14:21]   Vikkas C : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qxh_IC1rRj9CnD0Urma3vQOOkxajJWpXvMwoV2t4tRY/edit#gid=172978882
[14:22]   Vikkas C : Rm’s MO sheet
[14:22]   r m : http://tinyurl.com/McOsc
[14:23]   r m : short cut 🙂
[14:24]   Vikkas C : 😉
[14:24]   Sripathi : Thanks for the info.
[14:29]   Kiran : Shai the three red volumes in BNF in was the reason to exit BNF long?
[14:30]   Hemant : Just abouve IB, enough to keep everyone interested here
[14:34]   Shai : yes Kiran as also the failure of the initial greens to tae out vwap
[14:35]   Kiran : thanks
[14:40]   Shai : Did feel the market would stall ealy morning but we stil took a punt abv 8547 and paid 10 points fr it
[14:40]   Shai : but there is no short confirmation in the mkt yet
[14:40]   Shai : and that was the most obvious trade
[14:40]   Shai : (10:38) Shai :this looks like a P to me
[14:41]   Shai : let’s see if OTF wants to come and re-assess here
[14:41]   Shailesh : shai it was a trend day ? i guess not
[14:41]   Shai : one outside chance we will give t
[14:41]   Shai : No shailesh
[14:42]   Shailesh : it was rather a normal day or boaring day in our term
[14:43]   Shailesh : mkt is just moving 10-20 points on both sides
[14:46]   Kiran : Shai Poor High NF ? Whats implication ? I feel a dip to dVAL and again DH ?
[14:52]   Shai : Kiran the bigger takeaway if the single prints from 8470
[14:52]   Shai : if sellers do not break below 8504 now then that means bias stays up
[14:54]   Ashish : you said and selllers active now
[14:54]   Shai : yes
[14:54]   Shai : BNF weaker
[14:54]   Porus : bnf below val
[14:55]   Shai : Time to take that 8550 pe with 8300
[14:56]   Vikkas C : RM whats MO now pls
[14:56]   Shai : that MO intra day is not imp
[14:57]   Shai : will not change much if market is flat
[14:57]   Hemant : Shai, 8300 PE short is sort of intra?
[14:58]   r m : MO 53
[14:58]   Shai : No
[14:58]   Vikkas C : thanx RM
[14:58]   Shai : Both positional view
[14:59]   Hemant : Kris suggested to buy and hold for 3-4 days and we are shorting these.. what to do?
[15:00]   Vikkas C : shai BNF for 18500
[15:00]   Shai : Hemant that pe at 90plus is expensive and may not give much before Mon/ tues next week hence using 8300 pe to minimise damage
[15:00]   Shai : Oh Hemant go 50 points down then
[15:00]   Hemant : Got it Shai, thanks
[15:00]   Vivek K : shai targeting the FA of 13/7?
[15:00]   Shai : My idea is to reduce our cost
[15:00]   Hemant : I can only wish 🙂
[15:01]   Shai : Yes Vivek
[15:01]   r m : if wishe were bears … 🙂
[15:01]   Hemant : RM, If only.. 🙂
[15:01]   r m : lol
[15:02]   Shai : Just to clarify again – My 8550 pe trade is purely based on the MO
[15:02]   Shai : price wise and on Market Profile we still have to signal a reversal
[15:03]   r m : @Shai, regardless of MO, just going by MP, is there a chance of gap up open in NF?
[15:03]   Venkatesan : shai today singles upto 8512 is support?
[15:04]   Shai : RM spot 8561 to shake out can happen but should be sold
[15:04]   r m : OK Shai, Thanks
[15:04]   Shai : 8561 spot last swing high before dip to 8315
[15:08]   r m : from 7th July
[15:08]   Shai : 22 May also some where there
[15:09]   r m : ok
[15:09]   Shai : same profile as today
[15:10]   Venkatesan : 8489.55 spot high on 22nd may shai
[15:11]   r m : NF high was same on 7th july – http://screencast.com/t/UitZ2QV5
[15:11]   Shai : ok
[15:15]   Manthan : Does BN showing Buyers???@shai
[15:15]   Shai : 22 May F was 8548
[15:16]   Shai : Yes Manthan at close yesterday and even earlier yesterday BNF showed buyers at 18830
[15:16]   Abhishek : now climbing again
[15:17]   Manoj : bye all
[15:17]   Manoj : bye rm
[15:17]   Shai : Most likely we will do a webinar on friday on OrderFlow
[15:17]   Vikkas C : lovely shai
[15:17]   Shai : will confirm via email later tonight
[15:17]   Manoj : lovely
[15:17]   Tejpreet : Cheers to that Shai !!
[15:17]   Soumya : thank would be awesome !!!!
[15:17]   Hemant : That’ll be excellent 🙂
[15:17]   Srini A : Thanks Shai
[15:18]   Abhishek : that will be great shai..
[15:18]   Shai : would request you to take screen shots if possible over tom and fri of these prices and we can have a talk on them in an open forum
[15:18]   r m : Where is Varun today, Poor highs and Varun missing 🙂
[15:18]   RK : Shai when is the live workshop? 🙂
[15:19]   John : Thanks shai 🙂
[15:19]   Shai : post close Fri maybe 4
[15:19]   Shai : will confirm
[15:19]   RK : lets have it in Dehradun 🙂
[15:19]   Shai : 🙂
[15:19]   r m : good idea 🙂
[15:19]   Shai : oh the workshop? I read that as webinar
[15:19]   RK : Yes workshop 🙂
[15:20]   Shai : Will love to RK but life has gotten a bit more busier and If I do anything more on the weekends I will end up in a family court for a divorce
[15:21]   Shai : 🙂
[15:21]   r m : lol
[15:21]   Hemant : lol
[15:21]   Shailesh : lol
[15:21]   Shai : But we will do it once for sure
[15:21]   RK : lol..we all in a same catch situation Shai 🙂
[15:22]   Shai : 🙂
[15:22]   Kiran : NF out of IB
[15:22]   RK : huge nos in trades NF
[15:24]   Kathir : lol
[15:24]   Kathir : late LOL
[15:26]   r m : LLOL
[15:27]   Shailesh : 8550 put can be bought here shai?
[15:27]   Shailesh : BTST
[15:27]   Shailesh : with the strategy?
[15:28]   Shai : yes
[15:28]   Shailesh : alright
[15:28]   Shai : same as in announcements
[15:28]   Shai : MO strategy
[15:29]   Venkatesan : thank you shai,rm, kris and frens
[15:30]   Tejpreet : Bye all.
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   John : Bye all 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : day high close
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shailesh : bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:30]   Vikkas C : bye all
[15:30]   Srini A : Thanks all, bye
[15:30]   Porus : bye all
[15:30]   Ashish : Bye all
[15:30]   Mohul : Bye
[15:30]   Moses : Bye
[15:30]   Sudhakar : Bye all
[15:31]   Kathir : thanks and bye all 🙂
[15:31]   Kiran : bye
[15:37]   Manthan : bye