Weekly hypos for the week dated 04th Dec- 08th Dec ( spot prices)

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In the week gone by the Nifty was trading in a balance for the first 3 sessions but a combination of settlement inventory caught upside down, and some long liquidation brought about a sharp drop in the last 2 sessions of the week. We know the triggers were related to settlement as the highest volume traded in the past 2 weeks still sits at 10350- 10380 spot as the charts we place below will show. From a Market Profile perspective, we call such selling emotional, and being away from value, the market can make a push back to the higher volume pockets pointed out above.

 

Before we place our weekly Profile charts, here is another look at how the auction is playing on the monthly scale :

 

Nifty Monthly TPO Charts :

 

n_monthly

 

 

We have posted these charts and the possibilities they give based on the Value Area Rule of Auction Market Theory. These are of course the TPO version of the charts posted here – http://vtrender.com/weekly-hypos-week-dated-20th-nov-24th-nov-spot-prices/

 

BankNifty Monthly TPO Charts :

 

bn_monthly

 

 

To reiterate, for the Nifty and the BankNifty the immediate downside is protected as long as we stay above the composite highs marked in the charts which are equivalent to 10040 spot. In the BankNifty that number is around 25050 spot. Please remember this is an area and not a number. ( Don’t trade intra day based on swing areas)

 

A move below that 3 month old balance sets off the Value Area Rule and the odds increase for a visit to  23800 in the BN and 9700 in the Nifty.

 

From last week’s post here- http://vtrender.com/weekly-hypos-week-dated-27th-nov-01st-dec-spot-prices/ we know that for the leg of this uptrend from 7900, no major correction has been more than 490 points. So from the pivot highs of 10490 seen in Nov, an equivalent drop will still put support near this 10040 mark reconfirming the balance highs  we know there

 

Nifty weekly spot TPO profiles:

 

n_weekly

 

 

From the chart above we see that last weeks profile closed below the high volume pocket of 10154 but has moved too far away from the 2 recent volume pockets at 10378 this week and 10344 in the previous week.

 

We also see 10016 as the next big support on the chart

 

Accordingly for the week to come here are the hypos ( valid until Friday 08th Dec)

 

  1. Since the trend is down for the past 2 sessions we are searching for support and that region would be 10016 on the charts
  2. Holding 10016 the Nifty can start consolidating putting an end to the imbalance and moving to balance
  3. On any upsides expected to see resistance initially at 10222 the previous high volume pocket and the zone where the selling accelerated last week
  4. Above 10222 the market can push back to 10350 – 10370 volume pockets as highlighted above.
  5. If 10020 is broken in the week then the Nifty can drop to 9900-9916.

 

For tradeable ideas on these hypos visit the trading room.

If not a member you can get immediate access at – https://in.explara.com/e/vtrender–trading–room/checkout

 

 

Bank Nifty weekly spot profiles:

 

bn_weekly

 

In the BankNifty TPO charts, we see the same structure as that in the Nifty charts.  What stands out immediately is the 2 higher volume pockets at 25770- 25815 making us believe that the lower pocket at 25015 if held then the BankNifty would stage a recovery in the week ahead.

 

 

Accordingly for the week to come here are the hypos ( valid until Friday 08th Dec)

 

  1. The BN has 2 major supports at 25015 volume pocket and the TPO buying tail at 24920 right below
  2. Holding 24920- 25015 the BN can attempt a bounce to 25460 and 25600 right above it.
  3. However if 24920 breaks for any reason then the BN can drop to 24650 quickly.
  4. Selling was heavier in BN than the Nifty last week so expect sellers to come back on rises.

 

For tradeable ideas on these hypos visit the trading room.

If not a member you can get immediate access at – https://in.explara.com/e/vtrender–trading–room/checkout