Weekly hypos for the week dated 15th Jan- 19th Jan ( spot prices)

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Last week we wanted to see a continuation of the move of Friday and the index stayed above 10600 for most of the week and hit a high of 10690 on Friday.

 

The zone around 10540 is a breakout zone for a 10-week range of 10540 to 10090 and as long as the index sustains above the breakout zone there is no immediate threat of a breakdown in the medium term outlook. But we also know that most breakaway zones get retested and our shorter time frame objectives look to be met around 10720 on the Nifty. My preferred view from here, is that if the index does not cross 10720/ 10730 smoothly early in the week we should be headed lower for a test of 10540 in the week ahead. This is my preferred view. As I state that, I realize that the Nifty is a week and a half from settlement day and about 2 weeks and a half from the Budget session. Both are significant dates impacting inventory of trade participants in multiple ways. Thus, experience teaches us to be more fluid around such events and move cautiously away from a rigid ‘left of center’ position. What’s also not helping the market is that the premium in the middle of the series in the Nifty and the BankNifty is non- significant and nearly zero which points to the broader market being either aggressively short or hedged with aggressive short Index Positions against cash longs. This could open up the possibility of a short covering move as we drift closer to the 2 events.

 

On the Nifty, if we stay above 10720/30 spot in the week ahead we should be moving to 10905 as the month closes. This is an alternative I cannot dismiss as the run-up is a solid 200 points.

 

Last week’s post is at – http://vtrender.com/weekly-hypos-week-dated-08th-jan-12th-jan-spot-prices/

 

Our outlook for 2018 is at – http://vtrender.com/2017-done-heres-2018-can/

 

Nifty weekly spot TPO profiles:

 

n_weekly

 

 

Last week was traded with a vwap of 10632 and the highest volume got transacted at 10623. We continue to see these 2 points giving support to the index on any drop.

 

It’s still a “Buy the Dip” market as we have been suggesting and the best point to buy for the medium term is 10500 spot now.  For the week to come the Buy the dip zone is 10610 and followed by 10520. Stops for these would be below 10470

 

For the week ahead here are the expectations ( valid until Friday 19th Jan)

 

  1. The Nifty has a short-term objective of the run up above 10500 at 10720.
  2. Staying below 10720 the Nifty can restest 10610 and 10520 in the week ahead.
  3. If 10720 is crossed the auction can rise to 10790.

 

For tradeable ideas on these hypos visit the trading room.

If not a member you can get immediate access at – https://in.explara.com/e/vtrender–trading–room/checkout

 

 

Bank Nifty weekly spot profiles:

 

bn_weekly

 

 

Last week was traded with a vwap of 25666 and the highest volume was transacted at 25666

 

We continue to see the 25800 zone as a supply point.

 

For the week ahead here are the expectations ( valid until Friday 19th Jan)

 

  1. The BN has supply at 25820- 25840
  2. If the index manages a move above 25840 early in the week it could run above 25940 to 25990.
  3. However, a failure to cross 25840 would mean the index would  stay between 25840 and 25650
  4. Second support is at 15560 but below that, it can drop to 25340.

 

For tradeable ideas on these hypos visit the trading room.

If not a member you can get immediate access at – https://in.explara.com/e/vtrender–trading–room/checkout