Here is a look at the weekly profiles of the Nifty and the BankNifty over the past three weeks.
The charts are 30 minutes each with a value area of one week duration instead of the regular day session we follow.
The larger value area duration helps us to track the motives of traders who carry positions for over a day. The value area in the above charts is in blue and the purple horizontal lines running across them are the POC's
The past three weeks show a sideways going value with the POC of last week just around the POC of 15 days prior.
If anything, it confirms that the big upmove from 4600 levels has stalled and the larger market is balancing after the big imbalance move in the months of Jan and Feb. This is in keeping with the Steidlmayer distribution pattern which says that the markets go from balance to Imbalance and back to balance.
Clearly we are all looking for a trending move to come out of this patern.In theory the distribution or the Balancing can retrace upto 50 % of the initial price movement or IPM. This projects a number upto 5150 for the market to safely retrace without that early Jan move being in danger.
However should the market break 5150, then it would confirm that we are back into a state of imbalance again and a trending move lower would have begun.
For the moment we are watching the market move into the balance region on the weekly time farme.
Last week we came very close to the bottom of this three week trading range. 5150 is just 50 points below that range.