Weekly charts (27th to 31st July 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (27th to 31st July 2020)
Spot Weekly – 11073 [ 11341 / 11026 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘Nifty could continue to remain in this balance unless it is able take out the similar highs it has formed at 11240 effectively for a probe higher towards the composite VPOC & VAH of 11290 & 11388 respectively in the coming week

Nifty started the week with a rare Normal Day as it remained inside previous week’s Value continuing the balance it was forming since the last 4 days before moving away from this balance on Tuesday in the form of a Trend Day higher as it scaled above previous week’s highs and went on to tag the composite VPOC of 11290 while making a high of 11317. This imbalance continued at open on Wednesday as the auction made new highs of 11341 but left a selling tail in the IB (Initial Balance) which signalled the end of the up move for the week leading to the retracement of the entire Trend Day range with Nifty making a late RE (Range Extension) and spiking lower into the close as it formed an outside bar on the daily. Thursday saw a gap up open indicating the previous day’s spike was more emotional and even made a RE on the upside but could not test previous day’s selling tail and got rejected from 11300 after forming an overlapping POC around 11275 leading to a Neutral Extreme Down day resulting in new lows for the week at 11085. After this imbalance, Friday saw a balanced day as Nifty remained in the narrowest daily range of just 124 points inspite of making new weekly lows at 11026 ending the week just as it had started which is with a perfect Gaussian profile and a prominent POC at 11085 which would be the reference for the coming week which could start with an imbalance.

Value for the week was overlapping to higher at 11121-11277-11301 but the close was much lower and staying below 11085, Nifty could revist the FA of 10953 and a break of that could start a probe towards the weekly VPOC of 10806 in the coming week(s) and on the upside, acceptance above 11086 could lead to a probe higher to 11159 / 11213 & this week’s POC of 11277.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11085 for a rise to 11131-159 / 11213-238 / 11277-301 & 11343-375
B) The auction staying below 11070 could test 11022 / 10978-953 / 10897-869 & 10806-781

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11375, Nifty can probe higher to 11426-450 / 11503-537 & 11582*-611
D) Below 10781, the auction can fall further to 10713-670 / 10628-609 & 10562-557

NF (Weekly Profile)

11095 [ 11339 / 11025 ]

NF opened the week with a initiative probe lower as it fell from 11226 to 11080 in the IB on Monday but could not extend further down and began an auction to the upside which gained momentum on Tuesday resulting in a Trend Day Up as it not only scaled above the PDH but extended it by almost 100 points to hit 11320. This imbalance to the upside continued at open on Wednesday as NF made new highs for the week at 11339 but left an initiative selling tail in the IB which marked the end of the up move and started a fresh leg down for the rest of the week resulting in new lows being hit at 11025 on Friday with a close at 11095 leaving a Neutral Centre weekly marketprofile. Value for the week overlapped & extended at both ends at 11061-11109-11241 with a close right at the RO point of the new series.

BankNifty Spot Weekly MarketProfile (27th to 31st July 2020)
Spot Weekly – 21640 [ 22668 / 21375 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly marketprofile resembles a DD with completely higher Value at 22530-22670-23110 and has closed right at the prominent POC of 22670. On the downside, the daily VPOC of 22381 will be the important reference in the coming week below which BankNifty could turn weak whereas on the upside, staying above 22670 could give a probable rise to 22850 & the higher VPOC of 23027 and finally the weekly selling tail of 23122 to 23211

BankNifty opened the week with an almost OH start at 22668 and gave an Open Drive Down from right below previous week’s POC of 22670 as it left a big selling tail on Monday from 22668 to 22233 and went on to make the biggest daily range of the month of 867 points as it hit a low of 21801. The auction continued this imbalance on Tuesday and made a lower low of 21688 in the IB and went on to make a C side extension on the downside where it made new lows of 21611 but got swiftly rejected back which was a sign that the probe lower was done. BankNifty then made a late RE on the upside confirming a FA at lows and completed the 1 ATR objective of 22153 while making a high right at the base of previous day’s initiative selling tail at 22233 leaving a Neutral Extreme daily profile. Wednesday saw acceptance of the Neutral Extreme zone in the first half & multiple RE attempts made on the upside from the ‘E’ to ‘I’ periods but all of them made similar highs around the 22345 zone which indicated exhaustion leading to a liquidation move into the close as the auction gave a successive Neutral Extreme profile but this one was on the downside. As happens most of the time, there was no follow up to the Neutral Extreme close on the next open as BankNifty opened higher on Thursday but remained below previous day’s POC of 22294 as it remained in a narrow IB range of just 170 points for the first half of the day before giving a RE lower in the ‘G’ period triggering a trending move for the rest of the day which saw the revisit of the FA of 21611 as new lows for the week were made at 21580. This imbalance continued on Friday open as the auction hit 21375 but left a small buying tail in the IB after which it formed a balance all day inside the IB range ending the week with a Gaussian profile and a prominent POC at 21621.

The weekly profile resembles a ‘b’ shape long liquidation one with a big selling tail from 22346 to 22668 and completely lower Value at 21700-22090-22310. The close has been below the VAL so staying below 21620 in the coming week, BankNifty would remain weak for a probe towards the daily VPOC of 21314 & the monthly VPOC of 21000. On the upside, acceptance above 21700 could see a test of higher levels of 21920 and this week’s POC of 22090.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 21685 for a probe to 21760-831 / 21921 / 22020-090 / 22165-202 & 22294-345
B) Staying below 21620, the auction could test 21560-455 / 21390-314* / 21250-140 / 21025-000 & 20953

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22345, BankNifty can probe higher to 22420-530 / 22606-670 / 22760-850 / 22911-944 & 23027-122
D) Below 20953, lower levels of 20880 / 20774-640 / 20570-445 / 20390-320 & 20211-165 could come into play

Additional Weekly Hypos

E) If 23122 is taken out, the auction can further rise to 23181-260 / 23333-450 / 23565-624 / 23716-822 & 23901-950
F) Break of 20165 could lead to a fall to 20100-031 / 19890-780 / 19648-507 / 19450-375 & 19320

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

21691 [ 22617 / 21400 ]

BNF opened the week with a Open Test Drive Down from the weekly POC and left a selling tail in the IB from 22617 to 22160 and trended lower falling by more than 1000 points till the C side extension on Tuesday where it made a low of 21610 which signalled the end of the probe to the downside as it confrimed a FA there. The auction then went on to give a retracement to 22390 on Wednesday but similar highs in this zone signalled exhaustion which led to a fresh leg down as it negated the FA of 21610 and went on to make new lows for the week at 21400 at open on Friday where it left a small buying tail to close the week at 21691 a bit above the RO point of August which is at 21615. The weekly Value was completely lower at 21670-22060-22230 with a HVN at 21580.