Nifty FEB F  |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. There is another failed auction at the lows on 19/01 at 8530 which should form another supporting base for the index
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 7200 now.
Weekly levels :
(On spot prices)
For the coming week first support is the previous highs of 8623 in the spot. If 8623 spot breaks the Nifty opens a potential 200 point downside to 8423 – 8450 with only a support of 8530 FA point in between.
A close above 8636 should negate some weakness during the week and set the market up for a 8751 spot visit during the week.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile operated below VAL again and auctioned lower into the close #) vwap of the day was at 8600 with volume of 117 L. #) Auction saw supply building up from 8619 levels #) Minor excess noted at 8644 on 09/02 and an anomaly at 8574 on 09/02 #) Profile of 30/01 confirms what we stated based on the 28/01 profile that the up auction is moving into a sideways mode and price adjustments.We looks forward to the anomaly adjustments noted below. #) Scene of the crime is at 8958 from 30/01 where the seller first appeared. ON 05/02 we saw aggressive selling happening in the rise from 8830 to 8890 . #) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan. #) Day Profile of 20/01 shows anomalies in structure at 8733, 8714, 8686 which need repair in the coming sessions. 8733 and 8714 almost repaired on 05/02 with 8686 pending
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8581 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8581 then shorts remain in control for 8530 and upto 8492. Sl for this view is 8598
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 8607 then it will move to 8643 and 8689 and further to 8733 Sl for this view will be 8595.
BankNifty FEB F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- 18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
BN weakened considerably last week by exhibiting a drop below 20050 levels. Profile showed a HVN at 18750 spot holding up the index 18270 is now the immediate support below 18700 spot
Weekly levels :
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week upsides in BN possibly only if we close above 19150 spot. Even then it has to still negotiate supply around the 19280- 19380 spot zone.
Friday low of 18740 is support followed by 18200-18250 right below it. A move below 18575 spot should set up an easy 350 point trade to 18210 spot.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile continued to make lower lows #) vwap was at 18628 today with volumes of 30 L #) A move below friday lows opens downside to 18424 F on Monday . This fell short by 30 points today #) Pull back high of 19710 in the profile of 3/02 is immediate hurdle on any move to the upside #) The profile of 30/01 left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F #) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256. #) VPOC of 3/02 is placed at 19610 #) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18555 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 18555 then it will move to 18230 . Sl for this view is 18600.
Hypo2) If BNF auctions above 18644 then it can move to 18759 and 18880 . Sl for this view is at 18580 now
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