In the end the closing price did not reflect at all the nature of the two way auction which took place today and the market finished as a neutral day from a MP perspective
Nifty July F :
Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
The Friday May 16th range of 7639- 7182 looks like a completed bell curve now as the market has successfully auctioned out the entire range building volume. This zone forms the base of the move we may see in the NF.
Short term :
Sellers seen at 7812 NF. Trend remains down below till 7685 F is not taken out on closing basis. Short term downside now opens to 7182 on a move below today’s low of 7486 F
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Yesterday’s notes :
The 7620- 7650 zone is now well traded and a zone of uncertainty. An entry either side away from this zone has the best risk reward ratio
1) The Market has to climb above VAH 7656 for a chance to meet 7708/ 7720 and possibly 7755 where previous buyers are stuck. Sl for that swing trade will be below 7620 tomorrow
2) We pointed 7555F as good support but the market stopped at 7567 on the way down today. Weakness remains below 7620 F and sellers can still look at 7555/ 7500/ 7448 as potential targets below 7620 with stops above 7655.
Observations in Thursday’s session :
1) Neutral day which closed closer to the Day low than the center indicating seller dominating the close
2) Buying support came at 7486 but sellers returned at the scene of the crime near 7750 from tuesday.
3) vwap of the day was at 7620.
Hypothesis for Friday :
1) 7555 is the reference point for the early morning auction. If we go below then the NF will check for unfinished business at today’s lows of 7486. The actual support is at 7469 F.
2) A move above 7573 would mean that the odds of a friday close at 7640/ 7660 F are greater .
BankNifty F :
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
Friday May16th huge range of 15888- 14418 June F provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.
The updated auction of the JulyF is here : http://prntscr.com/3wrs9g
Short Term :
BNF has closed at an Important daily support today at 14760. There is weakness below 14930 and levels of 14418 are next.
Observations in Thursday’s session :
1) Neutral extreme day with vwap near 15000 amd a close near 14870
2) Profile covered all anomalies from tuesday
Hypothesis for Friday :
1) weakness persists on an Open and auction below 14915 and the BNF should retest 14630 and 14345 below 14930.
2) An auction above 14920 can bring the BNF back to 15150/ 15200 again.