We had a normal distribution in the markets today. A “Normal distribution” unlike what the name suggests is fairly uncommon and is often the reason for either a neutral extreme or even a trend day situation in the next session.
Nifty Dec F:
Background / Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: We have done a review on weekly charts at:http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-30-nov-04-dec15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF was Normal day again but with a Gaussian Profile
#) Vwap of the session was at 7972 with volumes of 81.2 L in a session which traded a range of 7994-7952 of 42 points
#) Day POC was at 7978 levels
#) We see a trending move coming out of this profile and limiting our view to a neutral extreme or a trend day tomorrow.
#) In either case the possibility of going either beyond 8034 or below 7912 remains high in the session.
#) 7910 NF is the support roughly now below the index can drop to 7848 and even 7782 quickly
#) As mentioned in the post yesterday, we await a move above 7999 to confirm the bullish intent ( It did not happen in Monday’s session)
#) Value areas are at 7986-7978-7970– for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit:http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
Hypothesis :
(based on Dec F)
K.R.A is 7905 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 7997 it could move to 8023 and 8072. SL for this view is 7966
Hypo 2) IF NF auctions below 7953 it could move to 7923 and 7868. Sl for this view is 7987
BankNifty Dec F:
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: For Banknifty we have updated a spot auction view with a chart at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-30-nov-04-dec15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF was a normal day and again a P-shaped profile
#) A P shaped profile seems to suggest short interest being covered.
#) Vwap was at 17490 with volumes of 21.3 L in a session which traded a range of 17548-17389 of 159 points
#) day POC was at 17478 levels
#) We saw hesitation in the BN near the 17510 mark discussed in the weekend post ( high of 17498 spot today)
#) The profile has value higher and the higher probability move is a further push to 17770 F during the week, provided we take out the weekly resistance mentioned.
#) Value areas are at 17502-17478-17466 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit: http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
Hypothesis :
( Based on Nov Futures)
K.R.A is 17080 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) IF BNF auctions above 17533 it could move to 17647 and 17760. Sl for this view is 17430.
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions below 17430 it could move to 17375 and 17230. SL for this view is 17525.
All Hypos to be traded with the mentioned stops and mechanically. If in the trading room, can use the Order Flow to qualify the entry and exit for the hypos.