Levels and Plan for 20th April

Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 19/04)

review :

(On spot prices)

Last week the expected move to price objective of 8912 fell short by 67 points as supply came at the 8850 mark in a market which rallied for 11 sessions holding VAH and an MO of 80 plus. Something had to give and the sellers forced the late longs off the table quickly.

For the coming week we will find the Nifty trading close to the 8560-8580 support band early in the week but at risk of more longs being pushed out on rallies to 8685 spot.

Trading below the 8685 spot mark this week should point to  new supply coming into the index . The sellers should maintain control till 8735 spot is not taken out convincingly and on closing basis.

Staying below 8635 spot the Nifty has a destination trade at 8534 in the coming days . An upmove during the week which meets new sellers at 8685 spot should point to 8342-8321 spot as the final  objective of the move these next few weeks with stops on a closing above 8740 spot.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a normal variation day which closed at session and week lows.

#) Day saw sellers at 8660 today ( 17/04/15)

#) vwap of the day was at 8678 with volume of 94.2 L  (Less than Previous session)

#) Profile closed  below VAL for the third straight day this series.

#) Pull back high of the day is 8749 and resistance into any pullbacks

#) 8610 and 8622 are 2 areas where buyers were seen previously . Sellers seen in composite profiles at 8660 directly above.

#) Value areas are at 8694-8682-8666 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/

#) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players.

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#) Buying was observed at 8622 on 07/04.

#) Day saw sellers active at 8742 and 8752 on ( 16/04/15)

# buying/ short covering noted  at 8610

#) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03

#) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03.

#) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03.

#) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F

#) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Apr Futures) 

K.R.A is 8660  ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1) If NF auctions below  8660    then shorts  should move it  to 8610   F and 8563 F if 8610 does not sustain. Sl for this view is 8688.

Hypo2) If NF auctions above  8690   then it should move to 8724  and  8749    . Sl for this view is 8651.

BankNifty APR F :

( updated 22/03)

 Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb.  There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 19/04)

(based on spot prices)

Last week the fast move below 18800 on that failed upper move brought pressure on recent longs to close positions and the BN went below second support mentioned for the week at 18598 quickly.

For the current week there is more evidence of supply building up at 18724 and 18810 . We can  see all up moves to these points in the coming week meeting up more supply.

Support for the index is at 18232 and at 18131 right below it. If 18800 is not taken out on closing basis the destination trade in the coming weeks is at 17900 spot.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was dominated by sellers in the IB hour and closing hour

#) Day type was a normal variation day which closed at day lows.

#) vwap was at 18510  with volumes of  29.3 L (Less  than the previous session)

#) Value areas are at 18564-18516-18468 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/

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#) aggressive seller seen holding 18740 on 16/04

#) we see aggressive selling at 19090 in today’s profile and 18885 also showed minor sellers in the spike  dt 15/04.

#) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction seen since 20000 levels

#) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03

#) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404.

#) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone

#) excess also at 19860 on 09/03

#) excess also at 20904 on 04/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 18375 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions below 18375 then it should move to 18294 and 18185. Sl for this view is 18475

Hypo 2) If BNF auctions above 18475 then it should move to 18550 and 18625. Sl for this view is 18369