Nifty FEB F
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| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 8200 now.
Weekly levels : (first updated 15/02)
(On spot prices) Last week we spoke about a close above 8636 essential to negate weakness and the Nifty responded by going 185 points higher to hit 8822 just short of the 8840 cash supply. This week we watch 8842 to confirm our projected view for 9035 cash.
8755 spot and 8713 spot will be the support band this week with bulls having to protect 8713 at all costs on all dips. We will update this para as the week progresses. (Update 18/02) On the Time scale we have a closing above 8840 now, however as mentioned above we didn’t get supporting buying volumes. Whilst it is not negative we await a test where we expect these volumes to come back. Support now moves to 8820 spot and it is essential that we close above 8820 spot hereon till the month closes. (Update 19/02)
The expected volumes came below 8840 . The auction tomorrow should see dip buyers and most probably rally in last hour .
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile tried staying above 8900 in the morning but met renewed selling which took it down to 8802. #) Buyers were seen in the NIfty from 8810 to 8896 F on 19/02 #) vwap of the day was at 8862 with volume of 129.6 L. #) Profile has an anomaly at 8726 which is new support to keep the trend up. However a revisit at 8726 F is pending. #) Another anomaly at 8796 on 13/02 #) Profile is in balance now and looking to consolidate the gains of last week. #) The projected imbalance is to 9054- 9076 F Next week. #) Below 8726 long liquidation setup in play for 8643
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#) Scene of the crime is at 8958 from 30/01 where the seller first appeared. ON 05/02 we saw aggressive selling happening in the rise from 8830 to 8890 . #) Sellers were seen getting absorbed around 8626- 8644 levels and they will continue as important ref areas in the days to come #) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan. #) All anomalies pointed out in previous posts have been repaired
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8904 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8904 then it will move to 8956 and 8979 above 8925. Sl for this view will be 8871.
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8870 then shorts should push the auction to 8844 F again . Sl for this view to play out fully is at 8899.
BankNifty FEB F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- 18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels : (first updated 15/02)
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week upsides in BN possibly only if we cross 19385 decisively. We mentioned 19380 as supply all last week and BN went to 19441 but did not close above 19380.
We see 19660 and 19784 as immediate supply during the week. However a cross above 19785 should ensure 19970 quickly ( 185 points)
First support lower during the week is at 19240 followed by 19065
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF went past 19221 in the early part of the day, and dropped 300 points lower before a recovery #) vwap was at 19156 today with volumes of 44.8 L # Profile showed strong buyers below 19000 who bought the dip aggressively #) The BNF can give a break above 19485 targeting 19610/ 19747.
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#) a buying tail was seen on 10/02 at 18288 and should indicate the end of the down auction from 21130F #) The profile of 30/01 left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F #) The profile of 03/02 shows anomaly at 19768 #) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256. #) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 19210 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 19210 then it will move to 19485 and 19610 . Sl for this view is 19160
Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19160 then it can move to 18960 again . Sl for this view is at 19215 |