The markets found support at last week’s lows near 7956 F and staged a bounce off the news based selloff. It’s expiry tomorrow and option writers will take control over the market.
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Nifty Sept F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 430 points . Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot (achieved) and 8300/ 8581 in the medium term. Support at 7900/ 7500 spot. Our Profile studies indicate 11600 as a long term target on the Nifty in 2016-17 provided 6300 holds through 2015 We maintain our view of expiry around 8100 levels On the weekly TF the Sept support for the expiry week is at 7956 and resistance at 8093/ 8162 F. Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h6tlot01rnzmqk/sept_nf.png?dl=0 1) Seller seen 028- 8035 2) vwap of the day was at 8015 3) The NF completed the double distribution off tuesday and raised the possibility of an auction between 8016- 8095 tomorrow Other Observations from previous profiles : 1) Failed auction noted at 7955 on 27/08 . Since it was not visited in 5 days we now have confirmation that the move off 7955 makes that level a support for the near term 2) Pull back high of the trend day dt 24/09 is at 8075 and resistance now. Hypothesis : Hypo1 ) If we move above 8035 at open then NF will probe 8056 and 8075 where OrderFlow needs to be watched for signs of sellers coming back. A move above 8078 would mean 8093/ 8110. Hypo 2) If we fall below 8015 then NF can again drop to 7985 and 7956. BankNifty Sept F : |
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| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term- Friday May16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680 .
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/lg4vnpn8e09hgy8/sept_bnf.png?dl=0 1) The chart above shows sellers dominating the session. 2) vwap of the day placed at 15822 Hypothesis : Hypo1) If we cross 15840 BNF then it can rise to 16040 F Hypo2 ) Below 15740 BNF can drop again to 15640 . |