Expiry day turned out to be a trend day as the market broke below series lows and finished the series at the lowest points.
Nifty OCT F
Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.
The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 430 points .
Targets for the Upmove as long as 7900 spot holds (+/- deviation of 50) and 8300/ 8581 in the medium term. Support at 7900/ 7500 spot.
Our Profile studies indicate 11600 as a long term target on the Nifty in 2016-17 provided 6300 holds through 2015
Observations in Today’s session :
1) Seller seen from the Open price and chart above shows sellers getting stronger around 8020.
2) vwap of the day was at 8013
3) The NF still is in one time frame (read seller) mode and Ordeflow shows sellers dominating
Hypo1 ) If we move above 7982 at Open then NF will go to 8020 where the seller should respond again. The imbalance target of the Move is at 7900 Oct F below 8020.
Hypo 2) A move above 8020 should bring 8065-8080
BankNifty Oct F :
|Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term- Friday May16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680 .Observations in Today’s session :
1) The chart above shows sellers dominating the session.
2) vwap of the day placed at 15605
Hypo1) An open above 15510 would bring 15660 into play where the seller should respond again. The Objective of the imbalance was at 15385 and got achieved in today’s session in OCTF . We look to see if the selling abates at these levels tomorrow in line with a higher bounce to meet more sellers.
Hypo2 ) Below 15385 the BNF continues down to 15130 F