Levels and Plan for 31st July

A short covering of Morning shorts and the shorts from Monday ensured that the Nifty closed near 7800 again

NF_Compo1

Background / Previous Auctions :

(no change from last report)

 

Medium Term :

The Friday May 16th range of 7639- 7182 looks like a  completed bell curve now as the market has successfully auctioned out the entire range, building volume. This zone forms the base of the move we may see in the NF.The projected range expansion is upto 8100 in index F .

 

Short term :

Buyers seen holding up the index F at 7466 and 7538  and at 7628 .. Projected imbalance target met ( 7832 spot / high of  7839 F .1st line of support this week at 7720F.

 

Observations in Wednesday’s session :

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/v07iuc61bcadt58/OF_10min.png

 

1) Chart above shows sellers active in the morning session, but a lack of new sellers below 7720 and shortcovering above 7735 and later at 7755 took the market higher to hypo2 target from yesterday

 

2) vwap at 7747 is an important number for expiry tom

 

3) Neutral extreme day type

 

Hypothesis for Tomorrow 

 

Hypo1 ) An open below 7794 tomorrow would mean a test of 7768 low and if no buyers come at 7768 then a further drop to 7743- 7747

 

Hypo2 ) If we open above 7794 then NF can go to 7807/ 7840 / 7868

 

BankNifty F :

 

BNF_compo

 

Background/ Previous Auctions :

(no change from previous report)

Medium Term :

Friday May16th  huge range of 15888- 14418 June F provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.

 

Short Term :

Supports in BNF for the current week are at 15270 F followed by the old one at 14830. Resistance at 15470- 15510 and then 15640.

 

Observations in Wednesday’s session :

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nib52br89ukijnv/OF_BNF_10.png

 

1) Short covering seen above 15310

 

2) High of the day was near prior resistance at 15470

 

3) vwap of the day almost flat at 15307

 

Hypothesis for Tomorrow 

 

1) Hypo1 ) An open below 15470 should take the BNF back to 15380 where OrderFlow should show buyers responding. However a failure at 15370 will bring 15300 again

 

2) Hypo2 ) An open above 15470 should bring higher levels of 15550 immediately followed by a chance of 15640 again.