After the imbalance and the long liquidation seen yesterday the NF returned to balance today but buyers were not able to exercise much control over the day’s proceedings.
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Nifty OCT F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 430 points . Targets for the Upmove as long as 7900 spot holds (+/- deviation of 50) are 8300/ 8581 in the medium term. Support at 7900/ 7500 spot. Our Profile studies indicate 11600 as a long term target on the Nifty in 2016-17 provided 6300 holds through 2015
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/4g5gs9rqde49cv9/Oct_NF.png?dl=0 1) A normal day which saw a late probe higher meet sellers and finished near vwap 2) Today’s chart shows a profile which was well balanced in terms of structure but the sellers had an upper hand at the close and the profile had a small bias towards the downside 4) Data shows long liquidation again today as the profile probed above 7910 to add to the liquidation in the 7936- 7910 zone yesterday and the 8010- 8015 zone of last wed. 5) 8020- 8056 remains a poorly auctioned zone 6) Profile was imbalanced towards the downside at the close slightly. Hypothesis : Hypo1 ) An auction below 7883 tomorrow with a confirmatory move below 7855 would mean a test of the 7790- 7796 F zone . Sl for this view would be 7910. Hypo2 )Above 7910 tomorrow we look again to a probe to 7936 and a possible 7970/83 above that immediately tomorrow. View wrong below 7885 F. BankNifty Oct F : |
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Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680
Observations in Today’s session :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/r4rbs7x5ci8huw0/Oct_BNF.png?dl=0 1) The profile in the BNF was balanced today and rotational. 2) Buyers were seen early in the day near 15220 support . 3) day type was normal variation day 4) profile was imbalanced towards the downside at the close today
Hypothesis : Hypo1) If we stay below 15450 tomorrow then BNF can move to support at 15227- 15240 again. Below 15227 it can drop fast to 15101/ 15051 F Hypo2 ) Above 15470 it will move towards the seller at 15597 and a move above that will bring 15750. |