Market Profile Analysis dated 10th Apr

Nifty Apr F:

NF made a hat-trick of OAIR as it opened & stayed in the previous day’s Neutral Extreme reference zone in the ‘A’ period. The auction made a higher high of 11744 in the ‘B’ period but was still unable to get above the yPOC of 11745 which was an indication that sellers had come in at close the previous day just like that did on Friday to make use of the higher levels as we are still in that composite. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then probed lower in the next 2 periods & went on to break below the IBL in the ‘D’ period making a low of 11706 but could not extend it further in the ‘E’ period which was an inside bar and it left poor lows which meant that the sellers were still not ready to drive the prices lower. NF then got back above VWAP to move higher over the next 3 periods as it made a high of 11743 in ‘H’ but was not able to get above the IBH which confirmed that there was no demand coming in. This confirmation led to the sellers striking with their full might as NF made a big move down in the ‘I’ period as it made a fresh range extension lower leaving an extension handle at 11706 and continued to probe lower till the ‘L’ period as it made a low of 11642 to complete the 3 IB range extension down where it took support & made a small balance lower as it left a pull back high of 11684 to give a DD (Double Distribution) profile for the day within the larger composite of 11655-11730-11751. Staying above 11655 in the next session, NF can look to continue filling up the composite and will be attracted to that composite POC of 11730 and will be weak if stays below 11655 and goes on to break below the FA of 11632.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Double Distribution Trend Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 11654 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11699 with volumes of 79.5 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11744-11642 for a range of 101 points
• NF confirmed a FA at 11632 on 09/04 and tagged the 1 ATR move up of 11745. The 2 ATR move up comes to 11858
• NF confirmed a FA at 11834 on 03/04 and almost tagged the 2 ATR move down of 11620 on 08/04. This FA is currently on ‘T+6’ days
• NF had confirmed a FA at 11432 on 26/03 and tagged the 2 ATR move of 11632 on 27/03. This FA has not been tagged & is now strong support.
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 11673
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 11327 & 11448 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11645-11654-11718

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) Staying above 11655 at open, NF can move to 11675-685 & 11703-706
b) Below 11655, the auction can test zone of 11632-620 & 11608-601
c) Above 11706, NF can probe higher to 11721-730 and 11745-751
d) Below 11601, NF could tag lower levels of 11589-585 & 11570-552
e) If 11755 is taken out & sustained, the auction can rise to 11780-785 & 11806-811
f) Break of 11552 would be weak for a move down to 11535 & 11521-514

BankNifty Apr F:

BNF opened with a gap down of more than 100 points rejecting the spike close it had in the previous session as it made a low of 30161 in the ‘A’ period. The auction then attempted to probe higher in the next 2 periods but the range started to contract as it got into the spike zone of 30285 to 30359 and even got above the IBH (Initial Balance High) making a dreaded ‘C’ period extension as it made a high of 30335 but was not able to stay above it. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) BNF then went on to confirm the FA at top as early as in the ‘D’ period as it probed below the IBL to make a new day low of 30121 but again the close was inside the IB. The ‘E’ period made another attempt below IBL but could not make new lows & ended up as an inside bar which led to a retracement move as BNF probed higher over the next 3 periods to get above VWAP making a high of 30308 in the ‘H’ period to stall below the IBH of 30321. The auction then broke VWAP in the ‘I’ period which led to a big move down as BNF made a fresh range extension and continued to move lower till the ‘K’ period as it made a low of 29919 completing the 2 IB move lower & almost tagging the 1 ATR target of 29911 from the day’s FA. ‘L’ period gave a pull back making a high of 30105 but failed to even test VWAP which lead to BNF closing weak giving another Neutral Extreme profile which now makes the count to 6 in the last 8 sessions.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 30250 F
• Vwap of the session was at 30151 with volumes of 30.1 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 30335-29919 for a range of 416 points
• BNF confirmed a FA at 30335 today and almost tagged the 1 ATR move down of 29911. The 2 ATR move down comes to 29487
• BNF had confirmed a FA at 29890 on 09/04 and tagged the 1 ATR move up of 30303. The 2 ATR move up comes to 30727
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 30500
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 29061 & 29778 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30050-30250-30316

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate resistance at 30028-56 above which it can rise to 30106-121 & 30235-260
b) Immediate support is at 29950-940 below which it can move lower to 29890-835 & 29758
c) Above 30275, BNF can probe higher to 30335 and 30380-395
d) Below 29758, the auction can tag levels of 29711-680 & 29620-600
e) If 30395 is taken out, 30434 & 30485-516 could be expected
f) Break of 29600 could lead a fall to 29544 & 29490-477

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