Market Profile Analysis dated 10th July 2020

Nifty Jul F:  10766 [ 10805 / 10696 ]
HVNs – 10190 / 10293 / 10475 / 10570 / 10730

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘On the larger timeframe, we have a nice weekly balance being formed with the current Value at 10710-10755-10800 and the rejection of today’s spike could NF continue to remain in this Value

NF not only rejected previous day’s spike of 10818-10845 but opened with a good gap of over 50 points and took support just at yPOC of 10764 after which it probed higher as it made a high of 10805 in the IB (Initial Balance). However, the inablity to stay above the composte VAH then led to start of the 80% Rule as the auction made an OTF (One Time Frame) lower for the next 5 periods making multiple REs (Range Extension) lower and in the process traversing thorugh the entire composite Value Area and made lows of 10696 in the ‘G’ period where it left a small buying tail ending the OTF which also indicated that NF is still not ready to move away from the balance it has been forming all week. The auction then began the 80% Rule on the upside as it stayed above the composite VAL of 10710 and probed higher but got stalled at 10785 as it left a PBH (Pull Back High) there as the day’s range kept contracting leading to a PBL of 10721 before it closed the day at 10766, just around the prominent weekly POC of 10752. There is a very good chance that this balance forming from the last 5 days could be coming to an end but we will need initiative volumes from this Value in the coming session(s) for more confirmation for a start of a new imbalance.

View of how the day’s auction got rejected at both ends of the 4-day Composite Value on MP Lite

  • The NF Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The Day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (NV)
  • Largest volume was traded at 10736 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10751 with volumes of 147.2 L and range of 109 points as it made a High-Low of 10805-10696
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 10533 on 06/07 and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10742 on 06/07. The 2 ATR target is at 10950
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10440 on 02/07 and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10654 on 06/07. The 2 ATR objective comes to 10868
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10172 on 29/06 and and the tagged the 2 ATR target of 10619 on 06/07. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • The 18th June & 01st July Trend Day VWAPs of of 9957 & 10350  would be important support levels.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Jul) is 10240
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 10110 & 10110 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of May Series is 9183 & 9109 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Apr Series is 8999 & 9010 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10725-10736-10780

Main Hypos for 13.07.2020:

a) NF needs to stay above 10772 for a rise to 10792-823 / 10847-868 & 10909-914
b) The auction below 10757 can test lower levels of 10732-716 / 10686-657 & 10637

Extended Hypos:
c) Above 10914, NF can probe higher to 10940*-965 / 10995 & 11033-55
d) If 10637 is taken out, NF could fall to 10637 / 10596-570 / 10542-536 & 10500-480*


BankNifty Jul F: 22435 [ 22820 / 22325 ]
HVNs – 21000 / 21294 / 21430 / 21840 / 21990 / 22240 / 22720 / 22800

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘Value & Range for the day remained inside previous day thus giving a nice 2-day Gaussian profile with Value at 22681-22820-22891 with a close above the VAH indicating that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) would be to the upside towards 23313 & 23414 provided it stays above 22880 in the next session

BNF for the second consecutive day rejected the Neutral Extreme reference of previous close as it opened with a gap down of 150 points and continued to probe lower while making a low of 22675 taking support right at the 2-day composite VAL as well as saving the FA of 22650. The auction then probed higher in the IB as it hit 22820 in the ‘B’ period but could not get above the 2-day POC and this triggered a fresh move to the downside as BNF trended lower all day completing a 3 IB down day and made lows of 22325 in the ‘K’ period before forming a small balance at lows as the DPOC also shifted down to 22400. The profile represents long liquidation with completely lower Value so staying below 22400 in the coming session could see more downside towards the weekly VPOC of 21840 zone with the HVN at 22241 & VPOC at 22080 being minor support levels. On the upside, BNF has supply points at 22572 & 22675 which will be on watch on the ability to sustain above 22400.

Click here to view the MP Lite chart of the rejection in BNF from the POC of the 2-day Gaussian profile

  • The BNF Open Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The Day type was a Normal Varation Day – Down (NV)
  • Largest volume was traded at 22400 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 22544 with volumes of 70.5 L and range of 495 points as it made a High-Low of 22820-22325
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 22650 on 09/07 and the 1 ATR objective comes to 23313 This FA got revisted the next day & is no longer a valid reference.
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 22001 on 07/07 and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 22708 on 08/07. The 2 ATR objective comes to 23414
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 20901 on 29/06 and the tagged the2 ATR target of 22625 on 07/07. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • The 18th June & 01st July Trend Day VWAPs of 20494 & 21650 would be important support levels.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Jul) is 21430
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 20918 & 21000 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of May Series is 18767 & 19633 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Apr Series is 19605 & 19710 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 22357-22400-22620

Main Hypos for 13.07.2020:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 22469 for a rise to 22540-572 / 22614-675 / 22740-755 / 22810-862 & 22922-980
b) The auction accepting below 22400 could test 22308-240* / 22141 / 22098-080* / 22000 & 21939

Extended Hypos:

c) If 22980 is taken out, BNF could start a fresh probe to 23100-160* / 23230-313 / 23370-440 & 23510-580
d) Breaking below 21939, there could be a fall to 21840* / 21750-649 / 21564-545 / 21468-420 & 21355-319

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