Market Profile Analysis dated 11th October

Market Profile Analysis dated 11th October 1

Nifty Oct F: 11312 [ 11385/ 11185 ]

HVNs – 11155 / 11250-253 / (11276) / 11310 / 11341-354 / 11400 / 11480 / 11550

NF opened strong giving an drive up as it got above PDH & went on to make new highs for the week at 11385 within the IB but was swiftly rejected and turned the auction completely on its head making a huge move down of 200 points as it hit 11185 in the ‘D’ period. This move down seemed to be more emotional and could have been caused by the late longs liquidating as NF left a buying tail at lows after which it made a balanced profile for the day and giving a retracement to 11365 before closing at 11312 with overlapping to higher Value building up on the composite it has been forming for the past 5 sessions which can be viewed at the link below.

(Click here to view the 5-day composite in NF)

Market Profile Analysis dated 11th October 2

  • The NF Open was an Open Drive – Up (OD) which failed
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (2 IB)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11308 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11286 with volumes of 147.7 L and range of 199 points as it made a High-Low of 11385-11185
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11113 on 09/10 and completed the 1 ATR move up of 11309. The 2 ATR objective comes to 11505
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 09/10 at 11224 will be important support and this held on 10/10 as well as on 11/10
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is an important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 11630
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11127 & 10960 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11262-11308-11371

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) Sustaining above 11310, NF can probe higher to 11328-334 / 11358-365 & 11406-409
b) Staying below 11308, the auction could test 11285-267 / 11245 & 11228
c) Above 11409, NF can probe higher to 11430 / 11450-456 & 11473-480
d) Below 11228, auction becomes weak for 11205 / 11185-173 & 11155-150
e) If 11480 is taken out, the auction go up to to 11505-510 / 11529-538* & 11550*-565
f) Break of 1150 can trigger a move lower to 11125-120 / 11092-90 & 11068-22


BankNifty Oct F: 28139 [ 28723 / 27805 ]

HVNs – 28025 / 28130-152 / 28275 / 28400 / 28580-605 / 28860 / 29350-382

Market Profile Analysis dated 11th October 3

BNF also made an outside day getting rejected at both ends as it opened with a drive higher & scaled above the previous day’s OH of 28690 but got rejected from 28723 after which it made a big move lower of 900+ points to mark lows of 27805 in the ‘D’ period where it left a buying tail till 27900 as it gave a retracement back to 28397 before closing the the high volume zone of 28130-152. Similar to NF, BNF has also been forming a composite over the last 6 sessions which can be viewed at the link given below & we would need to watch for volumes in the coming session(s) for a move away from this balance.

(Click here to view the 5-day composite in BNF)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Drive – Up (OD) which failed
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (1.5 IB)
  • Largest volume was traded at 28130 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 28200 with volumes of 60.3 L and range of 918 points as it made a High-Low of 28724-27805
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 27774 on 09/10 and completed the 1 ATR move up of 28713. The 2 ATR objective comes to 29653
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995 remains important reference going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 30230
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 28416 & 27160 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 27917-28130-28360

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 28152 for a probe higher to 28205-220 / 28280-365 & 28408-424
b) Staying below 28130, the auction gets weak for 28035-25 / 27970 / 27900-880 & 27840
c) Above 28424, BNF can probe higher to 28504-515 / 28580-592 & 28632-704
d) Below 27840, lower levels of 27774 / 27675-650 & 27570 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 28704, BNF can give a fresh move up to 28805-875 / 28954-990 & 29069
f) Break of 27570 could trigger a move down 27495-420 / 27352-340 & 27157-135

Additional Hypos

g) Above 29069, higher levels of 29140 / 29222-283 & 29350-382 could get tagged
h) If 27135 is broken, BNF could fall to 27065-027 / 26976-925 & 26840-830

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