Market Profile Analysis dated 12th Feb 2020

Nifty Feb F:  12228 [ 12248 / 12158 ]

HVNs – 11922 / 11965 / 12012 / 12095 / 12130 / 12165 / 12218

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘Value for the day was completely higher but the inability to tag the VPOC of 12189 suggests that the supply is back and NF would need to take out that HVN of 12165 for a fresh probe higher towards 12189 & 12230.

NF for the second consecutive day opened with a gap up forcing the supply which came at 12165 yesterday to cover and this triggered a Open Test Drive on low volumes as the auction probed higher for the first 3 periods which meant it gave a C side RE (Range Extension) as it not only tagged the first VPOC of 12189 but went on to tag the next VPOC of 12230 above it too as it marked highs of 12234. The lack of fresh buying was evident as the volumes died down and NF remained stuck in a narrow range of just 30 points for the next 6 periods as it stayed above VWAP making similar lows near 12206 in the F, I & J periods indicating exhausion in the probe down indicating that there was no big supply coming in and it was only locals who were present in the market. The ‘J’ period then made a fresh RE to the upside mostly causing the weak shorts to cover as NF made new highs of 12244 and made another marignal new high of 12247 in the ‘L’ period but was swiftly rejected which meant fresh supply was coming in at the same place where it had left poor highs on 27th Jan and caused NF to close near the DPOC of 12218 leaving a perfect ‘p’ shape profile for the day. The HVN of 12218 would be the important reference for the next open and would require initiative buy side volumes to continue making higher Value this week towards the next VPOC of 12282 & 12309. Acceptance below 12218 could lead to a test of the today’s buying tail which starts from 12201 for a test of the HVNs of 12165 & 12130.

  • The NF Open was an Open Test Drive (Up)  (OD) on low volumes
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Up (‘p’ shape profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 12218 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 12218 with volumes of 75.2 L and range of 90 points as it made a High-Low of 12248-12158
  • The 20th Jan Trend Day VWAP of 12336 remains positional supply point.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Feb) is 12044
  • The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 12178 & 12132 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 12087 & 12182 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 11954 & 11910 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 12206-12218-12230

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 12235-242 for a move higher to 12258-275 / 12297-309* & 12325-336
b) Immediate support is at 12206-195 below which the auction could test 12175-165 & 12130-121  
c) Above 12336, NF can probe higher to 12354-369 / 12383-396 & 12417
d) Below 12121 auction gets weak for a test of 12095-090 / 12075-068 & 12050-040


BankNifty Feb F:  31567 [ 31620 / 31458 ]

HVNs – 30720 / 30800 / 30870 / 31050 / 31160 / 31200-230 / 31385 / 31458 / 31560

BNF also opened with a big gap up above the previous day HVNs of 31385 & 31460 and finally got accepted above the 20th Jan Trend Day VWAP of 31500 as it made a quick dash to 31579 in the IB (Initial Balance) leaving a very narrow range of just 121 points. The auction then made the dreaded C side extension as it tagged the VPOC of 31584 but got repeatedly stalled at 31599 just below the extension handle of the 20th Jan Trend Day which was at 31605. BNF then stayed in the narrow IB range for most part of the day making a slow probe lower as it tested the morning buying tail of 31505 to 31458 and took support there leaving a PBL (Pull Back Low) of 31492 in the ‘I’ period which led to a fresh short covering move in the ‘J’ period leading to a new RE to the upside as the auction hit 31620 but once again was not able to sustain above 31605 indicating supply coming back in this zone as it closed the day at the dPOC of 31560 leaving a nice Gaussian profile for the day with one of the lowest daily range along with volumes which means poor trade facilitation. BNF has major supply on the upside above 31620 in the form of the big selling tail from 31708 to 31893 which would need some initiative activity to be taken out and on the downside, the HVNs of 31460 & 31385 would be the levels to watch out for in case the auction gets accepted below 31560 in the coming session(s).

  • The BNF Open was an Open Test Drive (Up)  (OD) on low volumes
  • The day type was a Normal Day (Gaussian profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 31560 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 31553 with volumes of 22.2 L and range of 161 points as it made a High-Low of 31620-31458
  • BNF confirmed a multi-day  FA at 31004 on 07/02  and tagged the 1 ATR move of 31487. The 2 ATR objective comes to 31963.
  • BNF confirmed the 4th FA of this series in 6 sessions at 30956 on 06/02  and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 31453 on the same day. The 2 ATR move from this FA comes to 31950. This FA is currently on ‘T+5‘ Days.
  • BNF confirmed the third FA of this series in 5 sessions at 30631 on 05/02  and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 31600 on 11/02. This FA is currently on ‘T+6‘ Days.
  • The 20th Jan Trend Day VWAP of 31500 remains positional supply point. BNF finally closed above this level on 12/02.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Feb) is 30726
  • The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 31425 & 32104 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 31956 & 32102 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 30699 & 31100 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 31530-31560-31580

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate supply at 31585-605 above which it could rise to 31650-720 / 31775-800 / 31850 & 31936-963
b) Staying below 31560-530, the auction would get weak for a test of 31490-460 / 31385*-350 / 31287-255 & 31200
c) Above 31963, BNF can probe higher to 32040-57 / 32100 / 32152*-162 & 32205
d) Below 31200, lower levels of 31151-135 / 31070-50* / 31010-002 & 30956 could be tagged

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