Market Profile Analysis dated 13th July 2020

Nifty Jul F:  10807 [ 10879 / 10749 ]
HVNs – 10190 / 10293 / 10475 / 10570 / 10764

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘There is a very good chance that this balance forming from the last 5 days could be coming to an end but we will need initiative volumes from this Value in the coming session(s) for more confirmation for a start of a new imbalance

The start of a new imbalance generally happens with an initiative move away from the composite POC which was not to be in NF as it opened with a gap up and probed higher on low volumes as it stayed above PDH (Previous Day Range) to make new high for the series at 10863 in the IB leaving yet another narrow range of just 41 points which suggested poor trade facilitation as the auction was looking for fresh volumes. NF then made a ‘D’ side RE (Range Extension) and even got accepted above the IB for most part but failed to tag the 1.5 IB objective of 10882 which meant lack of new demand and this in turn triggered a move back not just into the IB but also resulted in a RE lower confirming a FA at 10879. The auction then trended lower till the ‘J’ period as it got back into the weekly composite and went on to tag the prominent POC of 10752 while making a low of 10749 where it took support. This was an important sign and also marked the lows of the day as NF left a small buying tail which meant that the buyers were defending this zone which led to a retracement back to VWAP into the close with the DPOC also shifting lower to 10810 where the day closed leaving a perfect Neutral Centre profile with small tails at both ends & a close right at the centre where both the DPOC & VWAP were overlapping.

We now have a 6-day composite with Value at 10710-10765-10805 which can be viewed on MP Lite by clicking here

  • The NF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
  • The Day type was a Neutral Centre – Gaussian Profile (NeuD)
  • Largest volume was traded at 10810 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10813 with volumes of 126.2 L and range of 130 points as it made a High-Low of 10879-10749
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10879 on 13/07 and the 1 ATR target is at 10731
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 10533 on 06/07 and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10742 on 06/07. The 2 ATR target is at 10950
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10440 on 02/07 and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 10868 on 13/07. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10172 on 29/06 and and the tagged the 2 ATR target of 10619 on 06/07. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • The 18th June & 01st July Trend Day VWAPs of of 9957 & 10350  would be important support levels.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Jul) is 10240
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 10110 & 10110 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of May Series is 9183 & 9109 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Apr Series is 8999 & 9010 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10789-10810-10852

Main Hypos for 14.07.2020:

a) NF needs to stay above 10806 for a rise to 10826-834 / 10880-914 & 10945-965
b) The auction below 10797 can test lower levels of 10774-754 / 10732-716 & 10663-657

Extended Hypos:
c) Above 10965, NF can probe higher to 10995 / 11033-55 & 11097-114
d) If 10657 is taken out, NF could fall to 10657-637 / 10596-570 & 10542-500


BankNifty Jul F: 22174 [ 22664 / 22028 ]
HVNs – 21000 / 21294 / 21430 / 21840 / 21990 / 22240 / 22720 / 22806

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘The profile represents long liquidation with completely lower Value so staying below 22400 in the coming session could see more downside towards the weekly VPOC of 21840 zone with the HVN at 22241 & VPOC at 22080 being minor support levels. On the upside, BNF has supply points at 22572 & 22675 which will be on watch on the ability to sustain above 22400

BNF also opened higher but stayed within previous day’s range and got rejected in an attempt to probe above yVAH as it got rejected at 22664 just below the supply point of 22675 in the IB which indicated that the sellers were very much active. The auction however remained above yPOC of 22400 as it formed a nice balance in a narrow range after it made a C side RE lower which got rejected at 22430. However, BNF could not scale above VWAP from the failed C side set up and this rejection from VWAP along with a small initiative selling tail at top led to an initiative move lower in the ‘D’ period in the form of an extension handle at 22430 as the auction trended lower to break the HVN of 22241 & the VPOC of 22080 as it almost completed the 3 IB objective of 22026 by making a low of 22028 in the ‘J’ period. The completion of 3 IB plus the presence of last week’s swing low of 22001 marked the end of the probe lower for the day as BNF formed a balance in the lower part of the day’s profile with a close at the bulkier looking POC at 22180 leaving a Double Distribution Trend Day down with lower Value once again. The PLR remains down if the auction stays below this POC in the next session for a probe to 22001 / 21840 & 21545 and on the upside acceptance above 22180 could lead to the test of the extension handle of 22430 which was the level where we got initiative selling today.

Click here to view the MP Lite chart of the rejection from yVAH in BNF in the ‘A’ period

  • The BNF Open Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The Day type was a Double Distribution Trend Day – Down (DD)
  • Largest volume was traded at 22180 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 22274 with volumes of 63.1 L and range of 636 points as it made a High-Low of 22664-22028
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 22001 on 07/07 and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 22708 on 08/07. The 2 ATR objective comes to 23414
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 20901 on 29/06 and the tagged the2 ATR target of 22625 on 07/07. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • The 18th June & 01st July Trend Day VWAPs of 20494 & 21650 would be important support levels.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Jul) is 21430
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 20918 & 21000 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of May Series is 18767 & 19633 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Apr Series is 19605 & 19710 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 22032-22180-22448

Main Hypos for 14.07.2020:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 22180 for a rise to 22236-308 / 22380-448 / 22543-675 & 22755-810
b) The auction accepting below 22170 could test 22116-055 / 22000-21939 / 21840*-720 & 21649-545

Extended Hypos:

c) If 22810 is taken out, BNF could start a fresh probe to 22862-980 / 23100-160* / 23230-313 & 23370-440
d) Breaking below 21545, there could be a fall to 21468-355 / 21319-223 / 21120-000* & 20901

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