Market Profile Analysis dated 13th November

Market Profile Analysis dated 13th November 1

Nifty Nov F: 11863 [ 11957/ 11846 ]

HVNs – 11667 / 11814 / 11860 / 11905 / 11980 / 12003

NF opened below the Neutral Extreme low of 11932 but took support just above the yPOC of 11904 as it made a low of 11908 in the opening minutes and probed higher entering into the Neutral Extreme zone of 11932 to 11968 but could only make a high of 11957 in the ‘A’ period after which the auction made an inside bar in the ‘B’ period confirming a selling tail from 11943 to 11968 in the IB (Initial Balance). NF then stayed in the ‘A’ period range till the ‘H’ period after leaving poor lows at 11908 in the ‘D’ period but could not get into the morning tail which meant that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) is to the downside. The auction then finally made a RE (Range Extension) to the downside in the ‘I’ period as it made a low of 11897 but saw some responsive buying coming in as it got back into the IB and probed upto VWAP where it was rejected and this triggered a fresh RE to the downside as NF left an extension handle at 11897 and went on to make new lows for the week as it completed the 2 IB move lower at 11859 making a low of 11846 in the ‘L’ period before closing the day at the dPOC & HVN of 11860. Spike Rules will be in play for the next session with the spike reference at 11846 to 11876.

(Click here to view the 2-day Gaussian profile in NF forming lower Value and leaving a VPOC at 12004)

Market Profile Analysis dated 13th November 2

  • The NF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down) – with a spike close
  • Largest volume was traded at 11860 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11914 with volumes of 85.4 L and range of 110 points as it made a High-Low of 11957-11846
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 11465 on 16/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11776. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11503 on 17/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11808. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11162 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11554.  This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 29/10 at 11810 will be important reference on the downside.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Nov) is 11970
  • The VWAP & POC of Oct Series is 11461 & 11365 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11127 & 10960 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11849-11860-11924

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11865 for a move to 11889-897 / 11915 & 11928-934
b) Staying below 11850, the auction could fall to 11832-829 / 11810-795 & 11771-767
c) Above 11934, NF can probe higher to 11953-960 / 11980 * 11998-12003
d) Below 11767, auction becomes weak for 11749-734 / 11716-709 & 11689
e) If 12003 is taken out, the auction go up to to 12027-50 / 12064-80 & 12112
f) Break of 11689 can trigger a move lower to *11667* / 11645-622 & 11604-597


BankNifty Nov F: 30585 [ 31167 / 30538]

HVNs – 30075 / 30150 / 30288 / 30410 / (30530) / 30600 / 30900 / (31150)

Market Profile Analysis dated 13th November 3

BNF opened in the previous day’s spike zone of 30968 to 31223 and attempted a probe higher but got rejected at 31167 after which it went on to break below the spike lows confirming an excess on the daily time frame from 31072 to 31223 which triggered an OTF (One Time Frame) move to the downside till the ‘F’ period as the auction made lows of 30780 completing the 1.5 IB move down. BNF then gave a small retracement to the upside but was not able to get above VWAP and was meeting supply just below the spike lows of 30968 as it left a PBH (Pull Back High) of 30955 in the ‘G’ period after which it resumed the probe down making a fresh RE to the downside in the ‘K’ period as it left an extension handle at 30780 and went on to close in a spike down of 30710 to 30538 to negate the entire rise of Monday and looks set to test the composite VPOC of 30291 (chart link given below) till it does not take out that extension handle of 30780 in the coming session(s)

(Click here to view the 4-day composite in BNF which closed below the VAL)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (‘b’ profile with a spike)
  • Largest volume was traded at 30900 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 30889 with volumes of 40.9 L and range of 628 points as it made a High-Low of 31167-30538
  • BNF confirmed a fresh FA at 30052 on 06/11 and tagged the 2 ATR target of 31049 on 08/11. This FA is currently on ‘T+5’ Days.
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 27900 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 29779. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 06/11 at 30447 will be important reference on the downside.
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 29/10 at 29945 will be important reference on the downside. This was tagged on 30/10 and broken but was swiftly rejected so proves to be support.
  • The old Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995  is no longer valid reference now as BNF closed below this on 13/11
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Nov) is 30150
  • The VWAP & POC of Oct Series is 28784 & 28415 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 28416 & 27160 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30800-30900-31129

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate supply at 30600-624 above which it could rise to 30680 / 30736 & 30780-800
b) Staying below 30540-520, the auction gets weaker for 30473-445 / 30384 & 30310-*281*
c) Above 30800, BNF can probe higher to 30880-890 / 30935-965 & 31005
d) Below 30281, lower levels of 30225 / 30150-131 & 30072-50
e) If 31005 is taken out, BNF can give a fresh move up to 31155-160 / 31200-255 & 31310-326
f) Break of 30050 could trigger a move down 29995-945 / 29899-870 & 29800-749

Additional Hypos

g) Above 31326, higher levels of 31373-395 / 31417-440 & 31490 could get tagged
h) If 29749 is broken, BNF could fall to 29695 / 29635-628 & 29570-537

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