Market Profile Analysis dated 15th Feb

Nifty Feb F:

NF had a freak OH start at 10820 in the opening minute but got below 10760 in the very next minute re-confirming the FA at 10813 and negating the small buying tail of previous day. The auction then drove lower breaking below PDL in the ‘A’ period itself after which it tagged the weekly vPOC of 10716 and went on to make lows of 10707 in the IB. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) NF then made a small balance in the ‘C’ period after which it resumed the imbalance lower extending the IB to the downside tagging the 1 ATR move down of 10690 from the FA of 10812 and went on to make lows of 10666. The next 2 periods saw NF balancing again with the auction being mostly inside the ‘D’ period and staying below VWAP. The ‘G’ period saw NF repairing the poor lows it was forming & extended lower again to make new lows of 10641 but closed much higher. The ‘H’ period signalled the end of OTF downside as it got above the ‘G’ period as the auction probed towards VWAP and confirmed a small tail at lows. NF continued this probe up as ‘I’ period tagged VWAP and the ‘J’ period gave a big move above VWAP as got back above IBL and almost tagged the PDL closing at highs. ‘K’ made new highs of 10760 and got stalled at yVAL as the auction seemed to be a bit stretched after the 120 point move from lows and closed lower back below PDL. NF continued the move lower in the ‘L period as it broke VWAP but saw a swift rejection there to leave a pull back low at 10696 and trended higher in the last 30 minutes to print new highs at 10766 and closed at the dPOC of 10748. The profile has again left tails at both ends with a bigger balance as it recorded the 2nd highest range of the series so far.

• The NF Open was a Open Drive Down
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 10748 F
• Vwap of the session was at 10706 with volumes of 142.8 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 10785-10641 for a range of 144 points if we ignore the freak OH tick of 10820
• NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 10946 on 12/02 and completed the 2 ATR move down of 10699. This FA is now on ‘T+4’ Days
• NF had left a FA at 10830 on 04/02 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11073. This FA got tagged on ‘T+7’ days and is no longer support.
• NF had left a FA at 10710 on 04/01 and completed the 2 ATR move up on 15/01 and was strong support as couple of times it was broken intraday but got back above it by EOD. The auction broke below this FA again today but again closed above it.
• NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 06/02 11046 & 11035 was broken on 08/02 and the closed below them so now they are no longer support levels
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 31/01 is at 10793 & 10775 which was broken on 15/02 and the closed below them so now they are no longer support levels
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively. The auction close below this today and remains weak below it.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively. The auction close below the VWAP today and just about managed to close above the POC.
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 10480 & 10580 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10683-10748-10755

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate support at 10745 below which it can probe lower to test 10728 & 10706
b) Immediate resistance is at 10770 above which the auction can move higher to tag 10785 & 10804-813
c) Below 10696, NF gets weak for a move to 10680-670 & 10655
d) Sustaining above 10813 could bring a move to 10830-842 and above it 10863-876
e) Auction getting accepted below 10655 could signal a move lower to 10640 & 10619-615

BankNifty Feb F:

BNF continued its streak of giving freak ticks at open as it gave a high of 27090 in the opening tick and seemed to have started the day with a Open Drive Down as it probed lower to break the PDL making new lows of 26901 in the ‘A’ period negating the upside range extension it made yesterday. The auction then balanced in the next 2 periods making narrow range bars above PDL and saw the ‘C’ period make a higher high which got rejected at yVAL indicating that the PLR was to the downside. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘D’ period then went on to make a huge move lower breaking below the IBL & then the previous week’s low of 26885 extending the range by more than 150 points making a low of 26754 following which the ‘E’ period made a lower low but closed higher with ‘F’ making almost an inside bar but leaving behind a pull back high at 26840 just below VWAP indicating that new lows could come. This got confirmed in the ‘G’ period as BNF made new lows of 26721 completing the 2 ATR move lower from the FA of 27384 and this new low looked a bit secure as ‘H’ period made a higher high leaving a small tail at lows. The auction then continued to probe higher getting above the pull back high & VWAP in the ‘I’ period and completely retraced the 150 point move of ‘D’ as it made a high of 26929 at the start of the ‘K’ period but got swiftly rejected there making a probe back to VWAP breaking below it making a low of 26840 and this time it left a pull back low there as BNF got back above VWAP in the last 30 minutes to make a high of 26920 before giving a close around VWAP.

• The BNF Open was a Open Drive Down
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 26824 F
• Vwap of the session was at 26842 with volumes of 27.7 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 26990-26721 for a range of 269 points if we ignore the freak open tick of 27090
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27384 on 12/02 and tagged the 2 ATR move down at 26736 today
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27716 on 23/1 and completed the 2 ATR move down hence is now strong resistance
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively. The auction has closed below both of them.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively. The auction broke below the VWAP almost tagging the POC but closed just above it.
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 26762-26824-26900

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate support at 26840-824 below which it can move lower to test 26752-736 & 26685
b) On the upside, sustaining above pull back high of 26930 could bring 26990-27006 & 27060
c) BNF gets weak below 26685 for a probe to 26636 & 26593
d) Above 27060, the auction can tag higher levels of 27128 & 27189-200

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