Market Profile Analysis dated 16th September

Market Profile Analysis dated 16th September 1

Nifty Sep F:  11017 [ 11079 / 10982 ]

NF opened with a big gap down of 100 points well below the spike reference of 11075 to 11118 and also negated the extension handle of 11045 but could not extend lower as it made a low of 11001 in the ‘A’ period after which it probed higher making a high of 11052 in the IB (Initial Balance) giving a rather small range of 51 points. (Click here to view the profile chart for September NF for better understanding) The auction then got above ‘B’ period highs in the ‘C’ period but could not extend the IB range which it did in the ‘D’ period as NF went on to tag the spike reference low of 11075 as it made a high of 11079 completing the 1.5 IB extension but could not sustain above it indicating that the auction is being rejected from the spike. The ‘E’ period saw another attempt to probe higher but could only make a marginal lower high of 11076 confirming that the upside probe is getting exhausted & that there is not enough demand for NF to gain acceptance in the spike zone of the previous session. This led to a big move in the opposite direction as the auction One Time Framed (OTF) lower for the next 4 periods and in the process made a RE (Range Extension) to the downside in the ‘H’ period and followed it up with a lower low in the ‘I’ period as it tagged 10982. The OTF move down came to an end in the ‘J’ period as NF made a higher high and went on to get above VWAP to leave a PBH (Pull Back High) at 11040 in the ‘K’ period before closing around the VWAP & dPOC of 11027 leaving an inside bar on daily both in terms of range & Value plus a well balanced Neutral Centre profile and is likely to give a good move away from here in the next session.

Market Profile Analysis dated 16th September 2

  • The NF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The day type was a Neutral Centre Day
  • Largest volume was traded at 11027 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11027 with volumes of 120.3 L and range of 97 points as it made a High-Low of 11079-10982
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10960 on 05/09 which was negated on 06/09 as NF closed above it. This FA got revisited again on 09/09 but closed above yet again so the 1 ATR move of 11124 is still open till 10960 is held. Low made on 13/09 was 10962.
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10785 on 04/09 & tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10958. The 2 ATR move up comes to 11131. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 26/08 at 10886 10951 would be important references on the downside.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 19/07 at 11478 11523 are now positional references on the upside.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 11010
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 11833 & 11714 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10999-11027-11039

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate supply at 11031-40 which if take out can rise to 11067-79 & 11105-110
b) Initial support is at 11004-10999 below which the auction can test 10982-965 & 10946-926
c) Above 11110, NF can probe higher to 11129-131 & 11157-175
d) Below 10926, auction becomes weak for 10900 & 10881-870
e) If 11175 is taken out, the auction can rise to 11195-200 & 11223
f) Break of 10870 can trigger a move lower to 10854-845 & 10822-818


BankNifty Sep F: 27890 [ 28095 / 27801 ]

Market Profile Analysis dated 16th September 3

BNF also gave a big gap down of more than 350 points but was also a OL (Open=Low) start at 27801 which was the weekly POC hence an important reference to arrest further downside as it probed higher in the Initial Balance to get back above the yPOC of 27925 and made a high of 28024 in the IB (Initial Balance). The auction made a RE (Range Extension) to the upside in the ‘C’ period making a new day high of 28044 but was swiftly rejected as it got back to VWAP quickly making a low of 27917 but did not sustain below it indicating that the probe to the upside is still not completed. BNF made a fresh RE in the D period as it made highs of 28095 entering the previous day’s spike zone of 28075 to 28200 but was rejected and this was a signal that the upside could be done with as the next period then made an inside bar once again getting rejected from the spike reference as it made a lower high of 28085 after which the auction made a OTF move down for the next 4 periods as it made a low of 27838 in the ‘I’ period testing the morning buying tail from 27876 to 27801 where it seemed to have got some demand. This defense of the tail then led to a rotation higher as the auction got above VWAP and also briefly scaled above the IBH leaving a PBH of 28035  in the ‘K’ period as it faced rejection to close around the dPOC completing a nice Gaussian profile for the day which was also an inside bar both in terms of range as well as Value. BNF has also made a nice balance on the 4 day composite with an excess (in form of a spike which has been rejected) at the top and looks set to tag the 2 VPOCs on the downside at 27720 & 27540 in the coming session(s).

(Click here to view the 4-day composite chart of September BNF for better understanding)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Auction In Range
  • The day type was a Normal Day (Gaussian Profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 27880 F
  • Vwap of the session was also at 27951 with volumes of 37.8 L in a session which traded in a range of 293 points making a High-Low of 28095-27801
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 19/07 at 30085 is now positional supply point.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 18/07 & 08/07 at 30598 & 30995 remain important references going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 27450
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 30914 & 30961 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 27850-27880-27970

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 27880 for a probe higher to 27950-960 / 28005-35 & 28085-95
b) Staying below 27880, the auction could test 27850-830 / 27735-725 & 27650-640
c) Above 28095, BNF can probe higher to 28130-175 / 28237 & 28280-291
d) Below 27640, lower levels of 27576-551 / 27472-448 & 27398 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 28291, BNF can give a fresh move up to 28346-365 / 28410-425 & 28475-485
f) Break of 27398 could trigger a move down 27350 / 27300-295 & 27240

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