Market Profile Analysis dated 19th Mar

Nifty Mar F:

NF opened at 11525 with a small gap up of 30 points but made an almost OH start and the inability to get above the previous week’s high at open stalled the move up & the auction probed lower in the ‘A’ period getting into the previous day’s Value as it made a low of 11477 in the ‘A’ period. The ‘B’ period made an inside bar indicating that either the sellers were not doing a good job or the buyers were still defending above the yPOC of 11467 although the profile had singles at top from 11527 to 11495. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘C’ period then made that dreaded extension down as it checked below IBL to make a new low of 11475 but was immediately rejected back into the IB after which the auction probed above VWAP and got above ‘C’ in the next period ‘D’ getting accepted in the morning singles confirming that the PLR is no longer down. NF then made a balance in a narrow range from the ‘D’ period to the ‘H’ period most of the time staying above VWAP and within the range of ‘D’ period getting resisted at 11515. The ‘I’ period saw NF finally move out of the ‘D’ period range as it probed above 11515 & closed higher indicating that the auction could be turning to imbalance which got more obvious as the ‘J’ period trended higher to get above the morning high of 11527 confirming a FA at lows and the ‘K’ period continued to rise as NF got above the PDH of 11554 making a high of 11559 but this first attempt saw some rejection as close in the ‘K’ period was almost at the lows. The ‘L’ period then gave a dip as it began to test the combo of VWAP & IBH which was successfully defended as NF made a low of 11522 and this triggered a spike higher into the close as the auction made new highs of 11581 to give a Neutral Extreme Day. The Neutral Extreme reference for tomorrow’s open would be 11559 to 11581.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction in Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Up)
• Largest volume was traded at 11574 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11517 with volumes of 78.4 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11581-11475 for a range of 106 points
• NF confirmed a FA today at 11475 and tagged the 1 ATR of 11580. The 2 ATR target from the FA comes to 11685
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 11/03 at 11165 & 11170 will now be the immediate support levels for the series.
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 05/03 at 10946 & 10934 will be important levels for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11480-11505-11536

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF saw big volumes at 11574 where the volume dPOC also shifted at close and will be the level to watch at open
b) Above 11581, NF can probe higher to 11599 & 11615
c) NF has immediate support at 11559-554 below which it can test levels of 11532-522 and 11505
d) Acceptance above 11615 can see NF rise to 11628-633 and 11649-655 levels
e) Below 11505, lower levels of 11490 and 11475-472 could come into play
f) If 11655 is taken out & sustained, NF can tag 11673-685 and 11693-700
g) NF would get weak below 11472 for immediate levels of 11457 and 11439-436

BankNifty Mar F:

BNF like yesterday again opened with a gap up of 140 points but made a freak tick in the opening minute with the low at 29502. The auction made high of 29835 but could not get new demand so started to drift lower and got into previous day’s Value as it made a low of 29602 in the ‘A’ period finding support just above yVWAP. The ‘B’ period then made an inside bar making an identical low of 29603 indicating exhaustion. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘C’ period then made an attempt to break below 29602 making a low of 29585 but was rejected and this initiated a OTF move to the upside in BNF as the auction got above VWAP and trended higher till the ‘F’ period as it made a high of 29800. The ‘G’ period then consolidated giving an inside bar after which the ‘H’ period probed below ‘G’ but was held above VWAP which was an indication that the upside probe is still not done. BNF then resumed the move to the upside as it trended higher in ‘I’ & ‘J’ periods even as it scaled above IBH making a high of 29884 but the auction could not sustain above PDH and gave a dip to VWAP in the ‘K’ period. The ‘L’ period then saw BNF breaking below VWAP as it made a lower low of 29715 but was swiftly rejected and the auction then probed higher to get above IBH again and made a new day high of 29899 in the last period to give a Neutral Extreme Day if the morning freak tick was ignored. BNF made higher Value today with the dPOC also rising at close to 29848 which will be the immediate level to watch in the next session.

• The BNF Open Open was a Open Auction in Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day – Up (if the opening freak tick is ignored)
• Largest volume was traded at 29848 F
• Vwap of the session was at 29747 with volumes at 24.3 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 29899-29585 for a range of 314 points
• BNF confirmed a FA today at 29585 and the 1 ATR target from the FA comes to 29944
• The Trend Day VWAP of 05/03 of 27380 will be important level for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 29720-29848-29880

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate support at 29848 below which it can probe lower to 29750-715 and 29660
b) Staying above 29890, BNF can tag 29945-30000 & 30101-126
c) Below 29660-650, BNF can fall to 29585-564 & 29500
d) Above 30126, BNF can continue its parabolic run to the upside and could bring 30355
e) Below 29500, BNF could move lower to 29433 & 29370

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