Market Profile Analysis dated 19th September

Nifty Sep F: 10711 [ 10842 / 10679 ]

NF gave a Open Test Drive down as it got rejected at the HVN of 10840 after opening below previous day’s value to give a move away from the composite Value it was forming from 31st July and this initiative action saw a big IB (Initial Balance) range which broke the series lows of 10785 while making new lows of 10765 and in the process completing the 1 ATR move down from the multi-day FA of 10900 (which got confirmed once 10826 was broken in the opening minutes). (Click here to view the profile chart for September NF for better understanding) The imbalance to the downside continued in the ‘C’ period as the auction made a successful RE (Range Extension) lower making new lows of 10742 but the D period then made an inside bar stalling the OTF move down and this led to a test of VWAP as both E & F periods made similar highs of 10772 & 10771 clearly suggesting that the probe higher is not meeting new demand & is getting exhausted. NF then resumed the probe lower in the G period as it made a fresh RE down and followed it up with making lower lows till the ‘L’ period as it tagged 10679 but before that left a pull back high (PBH) of 10740 in the ‘I’ period which would be the main supply point for the rest of the series. NF closed the day around the dPOC of 10706 which will be the immediate reference for the next session.

  • The NF Open was an Open Test Drive – Down (OTD)
  • The day type was a Trend Day – Down
  • Largest volume was traded at 10706 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10743 with volumes of 119.3 L and range of 163 points as it made a High-Low of 10842-10679
  • NF broke the positional support of the FA at 10785 which was not visited since 04/09.
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 10900 on 19/09 & tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10770. The 2 ATR move down comes to 10642
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 19/09 & 17/09 at 10743 & 10904 would be important supply points.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 26/08 at 10886 10951 would be important references on the downside. NF closed below both these references on 17/09.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 19/07 at 11478 11523 are now positional references on the upside.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 11010
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 11833 & 11714 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10682-10706-10762

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 10725 for a move to 10743-752 & 10773-776
b) Staying below 10706 at open, the auction can test 10685-680 & 10655
c) Above 10776, NF can probe higher to 10795 / 10807-818 & 10854-858
d) Below 10655, auction becomes weak for 10642-631 / 10619-615 & 10586-582
e) If 10858 is taken out, the auction can rise to 10878-884 & 10904-910
f) Break of 10582 can trigger a move lower to 10566-544 & 10525


BankNifty Sep F: 26782 [ 27176 / 26683 ]

Yesterday’s report ended with this ‘BNF has left an inside day with a balanced profile with failed attempts at both ends of IB so could be in for a big move once again in the coming session(s)’ and today BNF gave a Open Drive Down making a OH (Open=High) start of 27176
and breaking below PDL (Previous Day Low) re-confirming the FA at 27470 as it made a big IB move down of 341 points making a low of 26834 and in the process completed the 1 ATR move down of 26982. The auction then made the dreaded ‘C’ side extension down & after a big IB it would be all the more difficult to continue the imbalance down which was seen as the D period made similar lows of 26810 indicating exhaustion and BNF then promptly scaled above VWAP in the E period as it made highs of 26955 but could not tag the initiative tail at top of 26978 to 27193 which indicated that the downside is still open. BNF then made a slow probe lower as it made multiple REs down as it made a low of 26683 in the L period but failed to tag the 1.5 IB objective of 26664 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with the dPOC at 26820 which will be the important reference for the next session.

(Click here to view the chart of September BNF for better understanding)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Drive Down (OD)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (‘b’ shape profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 26820 F
  • Vwap of the session was also at 26839 with volumes of 38.6 L in a session which traded in a range of 493 points making a High-Low of 27176-26683
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 27470 on 18/09 & tagged the 1 ATR objective of 26982 on 19/09. The 2 ATR move down comes to 26495
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 17/09 at 27690 27509 would now be important references on the upside.
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 19/07 at 30085 is now positional supply point.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 18/07 & 08/07 at 30598 & 30995 remain important references going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 27450
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 30914 & 30961 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 26745-26820-26902

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate supply in the zone of 26820-840 above which it could rise to 26900-905 / 26950-978 & 27025-35
b) The auction gets weak below 26750 for a probe lower to 26700-690 / 26640 & 26593
c) Above 27035, BNF can rise to 27100 / 27155-175 & 27225
d) Below 26593, lower levels of 26530-495 / 26440 & 26395 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 27225, BNF can give a fresh move up to 27304-352 & 27400-410
f) Break of 26395 could trigger a move down 26340 / 26295 & 26245-225

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