Market Profile Analysis dated 1st Apr

Nifty Apr F:

NF opened with a gap up of 40 points & sustained above previous week’s high giving a move away from Friday’s balance as it probed higher in the IB (Initial Balance) closing at highs in the ‘B’ period after tagging 11769. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then made a ‘C’ period extension and most often when a ‘C’ period extension comes after a good move in the IB, it tends to fail and today also NF got rejected back into the IB range after making a high of 11784. NF then attempted a probed lower in the ‘D’ period as it went below ‘C’ but could not get below VWAP and ended up making a very narrow range of just 13 points which indicated that there were so sellers to push the auction lower and this got more confirmation when NF made a similar low in the ‘E’ period at 11760 after which the auction got back above the IBH and moved higher for the next 4 periods. The range to the upside also looked to be contracting as NF tagged 11792 in the ‘H’ period but again had a range of just 13 points indicating that the auction may be stalling to the upside and the ‘I’ period then attempted a probe down making a lower low of 11776 but the range contracted even more indicating that sellers were still absent perhaps waiting for a better entry. The auction then resumed the morning trend to make a fresh range extension to the upside in the ‘J’ period and continued higher in the ‘K’ period also as it made a high of 11822 and looked like there could be a close at highs but the ‘K’ period could not hold above the ‘J’ period highs and closed at the lows which gave a signal that may be the auction has got too long or that supply is finally coming in. The ‘L’ period then gave a big move lower as often happens when there is an inventory adjustment break as NF not only broke below the pull back low of 11776 but went on to break the combo of VWAP & IBH at 11769 tagging the morning singles of 11737. The last period saw the auction make a low of 11722 almost touching the opening point to end the day where it opened. NF seemed to have moved away too fast from the dPOC of 11776 so could give a move higher at open and what the auction does there may set up the rest of the week.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Up)
• Largest volume was traded at 11776 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11772 with volumes of 92.6 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11822-11708 for a range of 115 points
• NF had confirmed a FA at 11432 on 26/03 and tagged the 2 ATR move of 11632 on 27/03. This FA is currently on ‘T+5’ Days
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 11673
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 11327 & 11448 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11740-11776-11791

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to stay above 11756 at open for a move higher to 11776 and 11795
b) Staying below 11756, the auction can test 11725 and 11705-697
c) Above 11795, NF can probe higher to 11808 & 11823
d) Below 11697, NF can tag the vPOC of 11680 and 11661
e) If 11823 is taken out, NF can give a fresh move higher to 11850 & 11870
f) NF has important support at 11661-658 which if broken can bring 11641-634 & 11611-101

BankNifty Apr F:

BNF made a higher open staying above that pull back high (PBH) of 30613 to probe higher in the ‘A’ period as it made a high of 30762. However, it made a narrow range in the ‘B’ period of 60 points which was also an inside bar to indicate it could make a balance for the first half as it was an OAOR start. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) BNF then stayed mostly inside the range of ‘B’ for the next 3 periods rotating around VWAP and in the ‘F’ period made a probe lower as it got into the morning singles to make a low of 30615 again taking support just above the Friday’s PBH. The ‘G’ period then made an inside bar making a similar low of 30620 indicating that the auction is facing exhaustion in the attempt to move lower after which BNF remained inside the range of ‘G’ for the next 2 periods and gave a move higher in the ‘J’ period as it moved out of ‘G’ and went on to make a range extension higher as it hit 30812 to close just above the IBH. The ‘K’ period however could not extend higher and got back into the IB (Initial Balance) and went on to break VWAP which was a signal that sellers have taken control of the auction and this got confirmed as BNF spiked lower in the last 45 minutes once it broke that pull back low of 30615 confirming a FA at 30812 and went on to tag the 1 ATR move lower of 30403 as it made a low of 30380 to give a Neutral Extreme Day (Down). Immediate support for BNF would be the trend day VWAP of 30364 which if taken out could bring in more downside. The Neutral extreme reference for next session would be 30380 to 30588.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 30690 F
• Vwap of the session was at 30678 with volumes at 24.4 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 30812-30380 for a range of 432 points
• The Trend Day VWAP of 28/03 of 30364 will be important level for the series.
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 30500
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 29061 & 29778 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30265-30690-30776

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to stay above 30426 for a move to 30475 and 30530
b) Below 30426, BNF will remain weak for a move to 30364 and 30315-309
c) Above 30530, the auction can test the important level of 30588 and above it 30625
d) If 30309 is taken out, the auction can probe lower to 30270 and 30217-185
e) Above 30625, BNF can tag the yPOC of 30690 and 30760-774
f) Below 30185, BNF can move lower to 30105 and 30060-29999

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