Market Profile Analysis dated 1st October

Market Profile Analysis dated 1st October 1

Nifty Oct F: 11430 [ 11607 / 11310 ]

Yesterday’s report ended with this ‘NF has a HVN at 11480 on the downside which would be the immediate support below 11510 and on the upside it would need to sustain above 11568 for a test of the VPOC of 11591 in the coming session(s).

NF started the day with an OL start at 11564 scaling above the HVN of 11568 as it went on to tag the VPOC of 11591 and made highs of 11607 but this drive up on low volumes failed in the ‘A’ period itself as it not only retraced the entire move but made new lows of 11547 and continued this move lower in the ‘B’ period as it broke below the support of 11510 & went on to test the HVN of 11480 making a low of 11472 breaking briefly below PDL (Previous Day Low) but got swiftly rejected as it left a large IB range of 135 points. The auction then made an inside bar in the ‘C’ period after which it probed higher in the ‘D’ period scaling above VWAP and testing the morning tail of 11560 to 11607 as it tagged 11595 but remained inside the IB range and continued to form a nice balance till the ‘H’ period with a HVN building at 11550. The ‘I’ period then gave a move away from this intra-day balance with a RE to the downside leaving an extension handle at 11472 as NF trended lower and more than doubled the IB range as it made lows of 11310 in the ‘K’ period in the process tagging the trend day VPOC of 11330 it had left on 20th Sep where it seemed to get new demand which led to a good bounce to 11449 before the auction closed the day at 11430 leaving a Double Distribution Trend Day Down which was an outside bar on the daily time-frame. Value for the day also extended on both sides as compared to previous day’s Value but the close was near to the VAL which means that the PLR would be to the downside if the auction stays below 11416. On the upside, 11490 would be the important level to watch if NF manages to get above 11451.

(Click here to view this week’s auction in NF)

Market Profile Analysis dated 1st October 2

  • The NF Open was an Open Drive (Up) on lower volumes which failed 
  • The day type was a Double Distribution Trend Day – Down
  • Largest volume was traded at 11547 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11486 with volumes of 185.9 L and range of 297 points as it made a High-Low of 11607-11310
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 20/09 at 11330 & 11178 are now now important support levels. The Trend Day POC was tagged on 01/10 and NF promptly bounced from it.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 11630
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11127 & 10960 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11419-11547-11606

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate supply at 11445-451 above which it could rise to 11473-490 & 11510-529
b) Sustaining below 11416, the auction can test 11380 / 11355-350 & 11332-327
c) Above 11529, NF can probe higher to 11550*-565 / 11588-595 & 11610-618
d) Below 11327, auction becomes weak for 11296-283 / 11255-245 & 11233-215
e) If 11618 is taken out, the auction go up to to 11634*-644 / 11660-670 & 11700
f) Break of 11215 can trigger a move lower to 11189-*178* & 11132-120


BankNifty Oct F: 28874 [ 29724 / 28218 ]

Market Profile Analysis dated 1st October 3

BNF opened higher above the yPOC of 29350 of previous day’s ‘b’ shape profile which was a bullish sign as it rose further making a high of 29724 in the ‘A’ period but could not sustain above VWAP and this led to a big liquidation move in the ‘B’ period as it not only closed the gap but went on to break below PDL (Previous Day Low) while making a low of 28982 and leaving a huge IB range of 742 points. The auction then remained within this range for the next 6 periods forming a balance and building volumes around the yPOC of 29350 with Value also similar to the previous day and saw initiative action in the ‘I’ period as BNF moved away from this balance making a RE to the downside starting a new leg lower as it broke below the 20th September’s Trend Day POC of 29078 and then went on to break that day’s VWAP of 28548 and similar to NF more than doubled the day’s range as it made a low of 28218 in the ‘J’ period stopping just above the extension handle it had left on 20/09 at 28188. The auction then gave a good retracement over the next 2 periods as it almost tagged today’s extension handle of 28982 while leaving a pull back high of 28971 in the ‘L’ period before closing at 28875 leaving a Double Distribution profile for the day. Today’s VWAP of 29069 will be an important reference for the coming session(s) above which 29350 will be the level to watch on any move higher but staying below 28892, the PLR would remain to the downside.

(Click here to view this week’s action in BNF)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR) 
  • The day type was a Double Distribution Trend Day – Down
  • Largest volume was traded at 29350 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 29069 with volumes of 73.2 L and range of 1506 points as it made a High-Low of 29724-28218
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 20/09 at 29075 & 28548 are now now important support levels. The auction broke both these levels on 01/10 but was able to close above 28548.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995 remains important reference going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 30230
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 28416 & 27160 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 28734-29351-29559

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 28900-922 for a rise to 28976-982 / 29069 & 29140-211
b) Immediate support is at 28830-820 below which the auction could test 28750-730 / 28675-650 & 28560-526
c) Above 29211, BNF can probe higher to 29283 / 29320-350 & 29400-450
d) Below 28526, lower levels of 28460 / 28345-290 & 28188 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 29450, BNF can give a fresh move up to 29525 / 29650 & 29725-735
f) Break of 28188 could trigger a move down 28110-090 / 28038 & 27855

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