Market Profile Analysis dated 22nd October

Market Profile Analysis dated 22nd October 1

Nifty Oct F: 11624 [ 11715/ 11604 ]

HVNs – 11155 / 11250-253 / (11276) / 11330 / 11380 / [11410] / 11484 / 11592 / (11625) / 11670

NF opened a bit lower and found support at the TPO POC of Friday which was at 11640 as it made a low of 11641 in the opening minutes and reversed the probe to the upside as it tagged 11693 but could not scale above the PDH of 11696 indicating that the auction could be range bound which was confirmed as NF remained in this ‘A’ period range till the ‘E’ period forming a mini balance & looking set to give a Double Distribution profile as it gave a RE to the upside in the ‘F’ period and followed it up with a higher high in the ‘G’ period as it made highs of 11715 but just fell short of the 1.5 objective of 11719 which gave a strong signal that the upside probe could have been done. More confirmation of this came in the ‘H’ period as it made a lower high & low ending the mini-OTF move from the C period lows and the ‘I’ period made a RE to the downside confirming a Neutral profile and seemed to be headed for a Neutral Extreme as it made lower lows till the ‘L’ period where it tested the buying tail of 11609 to 11551 but could only make a low of 11604 finding some demand in the singles zone after as it closed at 11624. NF has a 2 day overlapping POC at 11670 and is also giving a nice Gaussian profile on a 2-day composite so can give a move away from here in the coming session(s) and either needs to break above 11670 on good volumes for a probe higher or get accepted in the tail for a move to the downside.

(Click here to view the 2 day Gaussian profile in NF)

Market Profile Analysis dated 22nd October 2

  • The NF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The day type was a Neutral Day (Bell Curve)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11670 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11658 with volumes of 107.7 L and range of 111 points as it made a High-Low of 11715-11604
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 11420 on 16/10 and completed the 1 ATR move up of 11575. The 2 ATR objective comes to 11731. This FA is currently on ‘T+4’ Days
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11458 on 17/10 and completed the 1 ATR move up of 11611. The 2 ATR objective comes to 11763. This FA is currently on ‘T+3’ Days
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11113 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11505.  This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 09/10 at 11224 will be important support and this held on 10/10 as well as on 11/10
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is an important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 11630
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11127 & 10960 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11630-11670-11691

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to take out the immediate supply at 11645-655 for a move to 11670-685 / 11700-705 & 11725-731
b) Immediate support is at 11618-609 below which the auction could test 11590 / 11575-568 & 11550-543
c) Above 11731, NF can probe higher to 11751-763 / 11787 & 11805-810
d) Below 11543, auction becomes weak for 11522-514 / 11484-478 & 11458
e) If 11810 is taken out, the auction go up to to 11822-843 / 11863 & 11894-897
f) Break of 11458 can trigger a move lower to 11442-439 / 11424-420 & 11395-379*


BankNifty Oct F: 29492 [ 29747 / 29225 (freak low of 28851) ]

HVNs – 28025 / 28130 / 28330 / 28430 / 28625 / 29070 / 29140 / 29350 / 29480

Market Profile Analysis dated 22nd October 3

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘BNF would need to take out the supply zone of 29232-29275 for an immediate probe to the weekly VPOC of 29336‘ and BNF opened higher with a big gap up above this vPOC as it gave an OH (Open=High) start at 29397 to give a OAOR start and probed lower to check for demand and found the same at the 29232-225 levels but also left a freak low of 28851 in the opening minutes. The auction then started to contract till the ‘D’ period as it often does after an OAOR making similar lows around 29350 which meant that the downside was limited and the ‘E’ period then made an RE to the upside followed by higher highs in ‘F’ &’G’ as BNF completed the 2 ATR move from the FA of 27774 which was also the 1.5 IB objective for the day at 29659 and continued higher to hit 29747. These new highs could not be sustained which led to a big liquidation move as the auction retraced the entire rise to make a OTF move down from ‘G’ period to ‘J’ period where once again it took support just above the 29350 level as it left a PBL at 29372 and closed near the HVN & dPOC of 29480. Value for the day was completely higher as BNF formed a ‘p’ shape profile and the singles from 29350 to 29151 will be the important support this week.

(Click here to view BNF forming a ‘p’ profile after the 3-1-3 of Friday)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Up (‘p’ profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 29480 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 29502 with volumes of 43.7 L and range of 522 points as it made a High-Low of 29747-29225
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 27774 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 29653 on 22/10. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995 remains important reference going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 30230
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 28416 & 27160 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 29339-29480-29575

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate supply in the zone of 29550-576 above which for a rise to 29650-677 / 29735-745 & 29805
b) Sustaining below 29480, the auction could test 29410-390 / 29350-340 & 29253-222
c) Above 29805, BNF can probe higher to 29853-885 / 29928-950 & 30025-77
d) Below 29222, lower levels of 29160-140 / 29070-25 & 28997-983 could come into play
e) If 30077 is taken out, BNF can give a fresh move up to 30140-175 / 30216-269 & 30310
f) Break of 28983 could trigger a move down 28944-910 / 28857-830 & 28760

Additional Hypos

g) Above 30310, higher levels of 30390-396 / 30442 & 30480-500 could get tagged
h) If 28760 is broken, BNF could fall to 28703 / 28650-622 & 28541-500

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