Market Profile Analysis dated 24th Jan

Nifty Jan F:

NF opened inside yesterday’s spike and tried to probe higher but could not sustain above the resistance zone of 10860-872 indicating that the auction wants to test lower levels first and it started moving lower breaking below the spike and giving a fast move down making a low of 10813 but seem to be getting support at the weekly extension handle of 10820 as price stayed above it. NF then went on to get back above VWAP making another dash towards the morning highs and made new highs of 10874 where it got swiftly rejected back into the IB leaving a probable FA on top and started to probe lower taking support at spike lows of 10835 after which it gave a bounce above VWAP but got stalled at the 10860 level again signalling that the downside auction is not yet complete. NF then got back below VWAP & probed below the 10835 level and went on to break even the 10820 support making a new low of 10811 but this break of IB also was swiftly rejected back leaving a probable Failed Auction (FA) at lows too. Often we see ‘failed move’ gives a big move in the opposite direction and this failed move below the IBL also went on to give a big move to the upside and NF went on to make new highs for the day giving a back to back Neutral Extreme Day but today’s was to the upside giving a nice bell profile on daily with a FA at lows of 10811.

• • The NF Open was a Open Auction
  • The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Up)
  • Largest volume was traded at 10850 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10846 with volumes of 81.6 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 10885-10811 for a range of 74 points 
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10811 today and if the auction stays above 10870 can do the 1 ATR move up of 10912
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10962 on 23/01 and has tagged the 1 ATR level of 10858. Staying below it, NF can probe lower to the 2 ATR move of 10755
  • NF had left a FA at 10958 on 17/01 and closed below it. The auction completed the 1 ATR move on downside which comes to 10844. The 2 ATR move down would be at 10730
  • NF had left a FA at 10678 on 04/01 and tagged the 1 ATR move of 10803 & closed above it. The 2 ATR target of 10928 was tagged on 15/01. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
  • NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 10796 & 10741 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 10480 & 10580 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of 31/10 10250 & 10248 will be important levels going forward

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10827-10850-10860

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate support at 10870-860 and sustaining above it can probe higher to 10902-912 & 10923-935
b) Below 10850, the auction can probe lower to 10835-830 and test the FA of 10811
c) 10805 if broken & sustained, NF can go for that vPOC of 10760 & the 2 ATR move of 10751 from the FA of 10962
d) If NF manages to get above 10923, then can move higher to that vPOC of 10944 & the FA of 10962

BankNifty Jan F:

BNF opened in the lower part of previous day’s Neutral Extreme reference of 27275-27462 making a high of 27327 at open after which it continued the imbalance downside and went on to break the previous day’s low and made a low of 27224 in the A period. The ‘B’ period then went back into the previous day range making a new high for the day at 27344 after which BNF began to make a small balance between VWAP & IBH as ‘C’ made an inside bar. The auction attempted to move higher in the ‘D’ period moving above ‘C’ high but got rejected and went on to make an outside bar closing below the lows of ‘C’ thus turning the PLR to the downside. BNF then made a slow one time frame move to the downside making lower lows in the ‘E’, ‘G’ & ‘I’ periods and three attempts to VWAP were rejected during this time. ‘J’ period made an identical low as ‘I’ but did not break below it & went on to get above VWAP which signaled that the downside probe for the day could be done with. The ‘J’ period went in to make highs of 27309 but BNF was not able to sustain above the previous week’s low of 27300 and closed near VWAP. The next period ‘K’ made an inside bar and had a dip below VWAP which was rejected but again was not able to get above ‘J’ closing exactly at the previous week’s low of 27300. ‘L’ period then started with breaking below VWAP & the ‘K’ period lows and went on to move below the IBL making a low of 27215 but was swiftly rejected back suggesting there was demand coming in. This rejection then gained momentum on the upside once the auction got above VWAP and BNF then went on to get above the ‘J’ period highs of 27310 and made new highs for the day to close at highs leaving a consecutive Neutral Extreme Day but this time on the upside. Value however was completely lower for the day as BNF formed a nice bell profile below the composite it made from 7th Jan.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Up)
• Largest volume was traded at 27240 F
• Vwap of the session was at 27267 with volumes of 23.7 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 27375-27186 for a range of 189 points
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27611 on 23/1 and closed below the 1 ATR level (27382) so seems on for the 2 ATR move down to 27153
• BNF left a FA at 27435 on 22/01 but closed below it on 23/1. The 1 ATR down move from the FA comes to 27195 which was tagged today
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively
• 31st October’s VWAP of 24895 & POC of 24900 will be important levels going forward

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 27227-27240-27304

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate support at 27300 below which it can probe lower to 27240-225 and 27185
b) Staying above 27345, the auction can test 27380 again and above it can move to 27435-450
c) Below 27185, BNF gets weak for a probe to 27112 and the vPOC of 27030
d) Above 27470, BNF can move higher to tag the vPOC of 27530 and if sustains above that can test the FA of 27611

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