Market Profile Analysis dated 24th October

Market Profile Analysis dated 24th October 1

Nifty Oct F: 11624 [ 11684/ 11575 ]

HVNs – 11155 / 11250-253 / (11276) / 11330 / 11380 / [11410] / 11484 / 11610 / 11670

NF gave an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start today after a gap up open which was followed by a look up above the PDH (Previous Day High) as it made highs of 11689 in the opening minutes but got swiftly rejected to not only get back into previous day’s range but also completed the 80% Rule in the 3-day Value of the Gaussian profile in the IB itself as it made lows of 11610. The auction then made an RE (Range Extension) to the downside in the ‘C’ period and followed it up with another RE in the ‘D’ period making lows of 11580 taking support just above the mechanical reference of PDL (Previous Day Low). The slow OTF (One Time Frame) move down stopped in the ‘F’ period as NF probed higher till the ‘H’ period getting back into the Value and completing half of the 80% Rule as it made highs of 11643 stalling just below the yPOC and this rejection led to a fresh RE lower in the ‘I’ period as NF broke below PDL and in the process completed the 1.5 IB objective to the downside as it made low of 11567 which also confirmed an outside day. Though NF made a fresh RE down in the ‘J’ period, it struggled to extend the range as made a lower low of 11557 and more confirmtion of the exhaustion to the downside came in the ‘K’ period as it made similar lows of 11558 and this led to a close at the dPOC of 11610 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile for the day but on the larger time frame making the 3-day Gaussian composite even more smoother. 11610 would be the important reference for the next session as it is also the VAL of the 4-day Bell Curve and a move away from this balance could be coming in the next session(s).

(Click here to view the 4 day Gaussian profile in NF)

Market Profile Analysis dated 24th October 2

  • The NF Open was an Open Rejection Reverse – ORR (Down)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (‘b’ shape profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11610 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11610 with volumes of 103.7 L and range of 132 points as it made a High-Low of 11689-11557
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 11420 on 16/10 and completed the 1 ATR move up of 11575. The 2 ATR objective comes to 11731. This FA is currently on ‘T+6’ Days
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11458 on 17/10 and completed the 1 ATR move up of 11611. The 2 ATR objective comes to 11763. This FA is currently on ‘T+5’ Days
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11113 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11505.  This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 09/10 at 11224 will be important support and this held on 10/10 as well as on 11/10
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is an important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 11630
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11127 & 10960 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11581-11610-11638

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11615 for a rise to 11635-643 / 11661 / 11675-679 & 11700-705
b) Immediate support is at 11595 below which the auction could test 11560-543 & 11522-514
c) Above 11705, NF can probe higher to 11725-731 / 11751-763 & 11787
d) Below 11514, auction becomes weak for 11484-478 / 11458 & 11442-439
e) If 11787 is taken out, the auction go up to to 11805-810 / 11822-843 & 11863
f) Break of 11439 can trigger a move lower to 11424-420 / 11395-*379* & 11364-360


BankNifty Oct F: 29180 [ 29742 / 29021 ] ) ] 

HVNs – 28025 / 28130 / 28330 / 28430 / 28625 / 29170 / (29390) / 29480 / (29650)

Market Profile Analysis dated 24th October 3

Similar to NF, BNF also gave an b as it looked above PDH after opening with a gap up but got rejected to get back in to previous day’s range completing the 80% Rule in the IB as it made lows of 29338. The auction made a RE to the downside in the ‘C’ & ‘D’ periods but could hardly extend the range as it made lows of 29304 which led to a probe above VWAP to check for sellers and stalled at 29599 as it left a PBH (Pull Back High) there and triggered a fresh leg lower as it left an extension handle at 29304 and went on to test yesterday’s freak low of 29121 in the ‘I’ period as it made lower lows of 29042 & 29021 in the next 2 periods after which it gave a retracement to the developing POC & HVN of 29170 leaving a ‘b’ profile with a spike lower. The composite from last 3 days still gives a ‘p’ shape profile with the composite POC at 29490 and Value from 29361 to 29682 which will be the levels to watch on any bounce above the extension handle of 29304.

(Click here to view BNF forming a ‘p’ profile on a 3 day composite)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Rejection Reverse – ORR (Down)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (‘b’ shape profile with a spike lower)
  • Largest volume was traded at 29170 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 29372 with volumes of 53.8 L and range of 722 points as it made a High-Low of 29742-29021
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 27774 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 29653 on 22/10. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995 remains important reference going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 30230
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 28416 & 27160 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 29031-29170-29480

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate supply at 29200-240 above which it could rise to 29288-305 / 29360-408 & 29480-490
b) Sustaining below 29170, the auction gets weak for a test of 29100 / 29050-30 / 28997-983 & 28944-910
c) Above 29490, BNF can probe higher to 29544-555 / 29625-650 & 29700-745
d) Below 28910, lower levels of 28857-830 / 28760 & 29703 could come into play
e) If 29745 is taken out, BNF can give a fresh move up to 29805 / 29853-885 & 29928-950
f) Break of 28703 could trigger a move down 28650-622 / 28541-500 & 28430-410

Additional Hypos

g) Above 29950, higher levels of 30025-77 / 30140-175 & 30216-269 could get tagged
h) If 28410 is broken, BNF could fall to 28340-330 / 28284-250 & 28181-150

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