Market Profile Analysis dated 25th Mar

Nifty Mar F:

NF followed the Triple Distribution Trend Day Down of Friday with a gap down of more than 50 points and continued to probe lower as it tagged 11370 in the IB to complete the 1 ATR move down from the negated FA of 11475. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) As happens most of the times after an OAOR start, the auction stayed confined to a narrow range of just 10 points above VWAP in the ‘C’ period as it left a pull back high of 11397 to confirm a selling tail from 11397 to 11472. NF then broke below VWAP in the ‘D’ period & went on to make a range extension to the downside as it made a new low of 11362 and continued this range extension lower for the next 7 periods but only on a marginal scale as it made a low of 11337 in the ‘K’ period to mark the completion of the 2 ATR move from the earlier negated FA of 11533. The auction did make an attempt to get above VWAP in the ‘J’ period which saw rejection as NF left another pull back high at 11374. The failure to get a good range extension lower inpite of the gap down & VWAP rejection indicated that there was no new selling in NF & only locals were at play & this lead to a small bounce in the last 2 periods as NF got back above the second pull back high of 11374 tagging 11379 before closing at VWAP. NF also has a wide POC at 11366 which will be the level to watch at open in the next session.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down
• Largest volume was traded at 11366 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11370 with volumes of 106.2 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11420-11337 for a range of 83 points
• NF had confirmed a multi-day FA at 11533 at open on 22/03 but got negated the same day & tagged the 2 ATR move lower at 11343 today
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 22/03 at 11532 & 11521 will now be the immediate resistance levels for the series.
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 11/03 at 11165 & 11170 is important support levels for the series.
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 05/03 at 10946 & 10934 will be important levels for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11350-11366-11382

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) Sustaining below 11365 at open, NF can test levels of 11342-330 and 11308-298
b) Staying above 11366, NF can probe higher to 11380-390 and 11425-435
c) Below 11298, the auction can fall further to 11286-274 and 11252
d) Above 11435, NF can tag 11451-454 and above it the important supply zone of 11475-487
e) If 11252 is broken & sustained, lower levels of 11213 and 11198 could be seen

BankNifty Mar F:

BNF opened with a big gap down of more than 200 points to continue lower after Friday’s Trend Day Down and stayed below the previous week’s low of 29371 indicating limited upside. However, BNF looked stretched on the downside also as it had fallen 800 points from Friday’s high and began to balance as the ‘B’ period made an inside bar. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) BNF remained inside the ‘A’ period for the next 3 periods after IB too after an attempt to probe higher in the ‘D’ period was promptly cut short at 29374. The auction then made a range extension to the downside in the ‘F’ period as it made a low of 29251 but did not get any more follow through indicating lack of new selling below the IBL. BNF then again started to balance in the range of ‘F’ for the next 3 periods as yet another attempt to get below IBL was rejected as the auction made a higher low of 29257 in the ‘I’ period. This led to a probe above VWAP as BNF probed into the morning selling tail making a higher high of 29380 but yet again was rejected swiftly and this rejection led to a move lower in the ‘K’ period as the auction made a fresh range extension lower making a new low of 29211. BNF had been balancing all day in the buying tail of 15th Mar building up a prominent POC at 29310 and when the ‘K’ period extension lower also did not get new sellers, the auction reverted back to VWAP & the dPOC closing right there leaving a nice Gaussian profile for the day with a small tail at both ends. It remains to be seen if BNF gives a move away from this POC or continues to balance around this zone before making the next move.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (3-1-3 Gaussian Profile)
• Largest volume was traded at 29316 F
• Vwap of the session was at 29310 with volumes at 22.7 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 29420-29211 for a range of 209 points
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 22/03 at 29810 & 29825 will now be the immediate resistance levels for the series.
• The Trend Day VWAP of 05/03 of 27380 will be important level for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 29292-29316-29352

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) Sustaining below 29310 at open, BNF can probe lower to 29251 & 29185
b) Acceptance above 29316 can bring higher levels of 29371-380 and 29425-445
c) Below 29185, BNF can go down to 29135 & 29040-05
d) Above 29445, the auction can move higher to 29499-509 and 29550-572
e) If 29005 is taken out, BNF can tag the weekly vPOC of 28960 and break of that can get 28890

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