Market Profile Analysis dated 27th September

Nifty Oct F: 11579 [ 11646 / 11565 ]

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile which started with ‘p’ shape on the first 2 days is slowly turning into a more balanced profile as the 4 day composite can be seen at the below link so will need to see if the auction moves away from this prominent composite POC of 11630 in the coming session(s) or continues to build Value around it. ‘

NF opened lower away from the composite POC of 11630 and made a low of 11577 in the opening minutes but did not find any new supply & reversed the probe to the upside negating the gap open as it went on to tag the yPOC of 11631 while making a high of 11646 in the ‘A’ period. The auction needed to move away from this POC on big volumes which was not happening as the ‘B’ period stayed below this level making an inside bar with the narrowest IB range for the week which suggested that there could be a good range & volume expansion later. NF then probed lower for the next 3 periods and made an attempt to break below the IBL just as the ‘D’ period was ending as it made a new day low of 11570 and followed it up with a new low of 11565 at the start of the E period but could not attract new sellers and this failed look down meant that the auction now needed to probe to the upside to find new buyers. NF then made a slow OTF (One Time Frame) move to the upside as it got above VWAP & made higher highs for the next 5 periods scaling above the 11630 yet again as it made a high of 11639 in the ‘J’ period but once again could not attract fresh buying indicating that there was only locals who were present and looked like the big players were not yet ready to enter. The failure to sustain above 11630 then led to an inventory adjustment move as NF made a quick probe to the downside negating the move up from the lows of the day as it made similar lows of 11567 in the ‘K’ period but once again could not stay below the IBL as the last 2 periods made narrow range inside bar closing the day at 11579 which also was an inside day with a narrow range of just 81 points which was the least in the last 7 days leaving a nice balanced profile with poor lows. On the weekly front, NF has made a nice Gaussian profile (read the weekly report here) and could give a move away from here in the coming session(s).

(Click here to view this week’s auction in NF)

  • The NF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR) 
  • The day type was a Normal Day (Gaussian profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11591 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11602 with volumes of 93.4 L and range of 81 points as it made a High-Low of 11646-11565
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 20/09 at 11330 & 11178 are now now important support levels.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 19/07 at 11478 11523 are now positional references on the upside. NF has closed above both of these on 23/09.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 11630
  • The VWAP of Sep Series is 11127.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11575-11591-11613

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate supply at 11595 above which it could rise to 11618 / 11634-644 & 11660-670
b) Immediate support is at 11565-560 below which the auction can test 11538-520 & 11485
c) Above 11670, NF can probe higher to 11700 / 11725-735 & 11751
d) Below 11485, auction becomes weak for 11445 & 11415-410
e) If 11751 is taken out, the auction can rise to 11776 / 11805-822 & 11842
f) Break of 11410 can trigger a move lower to 11375-360 & 11330


BankNifty Oct F: 30081 [ 30340 / 29882 ]

BNF made an OH (Open=High) start at 30201 and made a fast probe lower as it got into the buying tail of 30001 to 29750 while making a low of 29883 in the first 10 minutes but was swiftly rejected as it went on to scale above the OH level and made new highs of 30280 in the ‘A’ period leaving a pretty large 397 point range in the first 30 minutes. The auction then remained in this range till the ‘H’ period as it first made a slow rotation to the downside till the ‘E’ period where it left a PBL (Pull Back Low) of 29928 from where it reversed to probe higher as it made highs of 30229 in the ‘H’ period. The ‘I’ period then made a RE (Range Extension) to the upside making new day high of 30330 & followed it up with a higher high of 30340 in the ‘J’ period but could not find new buyers hence did not sustain the new highs and reversed into the close breaking below VWAP  & making a low of 30022 before closing around the dPOC of 30070 leaving an inside bar on the daily with a Gaussian Profile. Like in NF, BNF has also formed a nice weekly balance & the same could be seen below so will need to see if the auction continues to build Value here or gives a move away in the coming week.

(Click here to view this week’s action in Oct BNF)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR) 
  • The day type was a Normal Day (Gaussian profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 30070 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 30115 with volumes of 39.2 L and range of 457 points as it made a High-Low of 30340-29882
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 20/09 at 29075 & 28548 are now now important support levels.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995 remains important reference going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 30230
  • The VWAP of Sep Series is 28416.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30020-30070-30194

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 30090 for a rise to 30140-175 / 30210-250 & 30300-310
b) Staying below 30070, the auction could test 30025-20 / 29980 & 29935-900
c) Above 30310, BNF can probe higher to 30390-396 / 30480-500 & 30565-600
d) Below 29900, lower levels of 29860 / 29784 & 29690-630 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 30600, BNF can give a fresh move up to 30728-750 / 30800-850 & 30900-935
f) Break of 29630 could trigger a move down 29550-528 / 29425 / 29350-285

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