Market Profile Analysis dated 28th Apr 2020

Nifty Apr F:  9398 [ 9421 / 9257 ]

HVNs – (8112) / (8280) / (8400) / (8544) / 8928 / 8976 / 9024 / 9216 / 9290 / (9340)

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘NF has immediate support in form of the buying tail from 9280 to 9230 which if held would mean that the PLR for the week would be on the upside. However, the auction would need to take out the level of 9385 on good volumes for a probable move to the 1 ATR objective of 9402 & the HVN of 9432 of 16th March

NF opened with another gap up which was also an OH (Open=High) at 9379 once again stalling just below that 9385 indicating good supply coming in which led to a quick & big move lower in the IB (Initial Balance) as the auction not only completed the 80% Rule in previous day’s Value and in the process breaking below the prominent POC of 9340 but also went on to test the buying tail of 9280 to 9230 as it made lows of 9257 in the ‘B’ period. The ‘C’ period however made a narrow range inside bar displaying exhaustion of the probe lower as NF stayed above the weekly POC & HVN of 9270 leading to a retracement to VWAP in the following periods as it attempted the 80% Rule on the upside but was getting stopped below the yPOC of 9340. The auction then left a PBL (Pull Back Low) at 9275 in the ‘G’ period and the failure to make a RE (Range Extension) lower inspite of the ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start meant that the sellers were doing a bad job and once NF took out that prominent POC of 9340 in the ‘H’ period, it triggered a trending move higher for the rest of the day as it made a marginal RE higher in the ‘J’ period tagging 9385 after which it took a pause in the ‘K’ period mostly absorbing all the supply which was coming in and then ended the day with a spike completing the 1 ATR objective of 9402 but falling just short of the HVN of 9432. Spike rules will be in play for the next open & the reference would be 9385 to 9421. The 2-day composite of this week (Click here to view the MPLite chart) so far is forming a nice 3-1-3 profile so would be interesting to watch if NF gives a move away from here for the expiry or continues to form a balance in between the 2 tails.

  • The NF Open was a Open Rejection Reverse – Down  (ORR) on low volumes
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (NV) with a spike close
  • Largest volume was traded at 9290 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 9326 with volumes of 146.6 L and range of 164 points as it made a High-Low of 9421-9257
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 9115 on 27/04  and tagged the 1 ATR of 9402 on 28/04. The 2 ATR target comes to 9688.
  • NF had confirmed a multi-day FA at 8686 on 09/04  and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 9211 on 15/04. The 2 ATR target comes to 9736. This FA has not been tagged & is now important support.
  • NF confirmed a FA at 7521 on 24/03  and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 8595 on 26/03. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • NF confirmed a FA at 9384 on 17/03  and tagged the 2 ATR move of 8613 on 18/03. This FA has not been tagged and is positional supply point. This FA finally got negated on 28/04 as NF closed above it and is no longer an important reference.
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 8620 would be important support level.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Apr) is 8686
  • The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 9146 & 8592 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 11944 & 12125 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 12178 & 12132 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 9302 – 9290 – 9399

Main Hypos for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 9399 for a rise to 9421-45 / 9460-80 / 9510-17 & 9550-80
b) The auction has immediate support at 9384-79 below which it could test 9360-57 / 9340-12 / 9290-53 & 9230-07

Extended Hypos:
c) Above 9580 NF can probe higher to 9615 / 9650-80 / 9715-40 & 9775-90
d) Below 9207, the auction can fall further to 9179-59 / 9140-24 / 9102*-9085 / 9056-41 & 9017

-Additional Hypos`-
e) Sustaining above 9790` could take NF to 9850 / 9890 / 9920 & 9951-60
f) If 9017` is taken out, NF can start a new leg down to 8986 / 8962-44 / 8925 / 8892-75 & 8840-28


BankNifty Apr F:  20676 [ 20749 / 20242 ]

HVNs – (18144) / (19248) / 19344-392 / 19536 / (19680) / (20064) / 20130 / (20425) / (20688)

BNF also opened with a gap up just above the 1 ATR objective of 20387 and continued to remain strong as it made highs of 20490 in the first 15 minutes after which it settled into an OAOR (Open Auction Out of Range) breaking below VWAP and went on to make new lows in the ‘A’ period itself. The auction then continued to probe lower in the ‘B’ period but took support at 20242 just above PDH (Previous Day High) and this was an important signal for the rest of the day. BNF then played out the typical OAOR narrow range balance formation till afternoon where similar to NF, it confirmed a PBL (Pull Back Low) in the ‘G’ period at 20329 leading to multiple REs to the upside as the auction left an extension handle at 20526 and continued the OTF (One Time Frame) move higher as it tagged the VPOC of 20700 leaving a spike close from 20685 to 20749 which would be the reference for the next open.

  • The BNF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range  (OAOR)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (NV) with a spike close
  • Largest volume was traded at 20425 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 20461 with volumes of 51.6 L and range of 507 points as it made a High-Low of 20749-20242
  • BNF confirmed a multi-day FA at 19381 on 27/04  and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 20387 on 28/04. The 2 ATR target comes to 21393.
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 17921 on 07/04  and tagged the 1 ATR target of 19818 on 08/04. The 2 ATR objective from this FA is at 21715. This FA has not been tagged and is now positional support.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Apr) is 19380
  • The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 22104 & 20248 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 30692 & 30692 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 31425 & 32104 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 20248 – 20425 – 20558

Main Hypos for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 20740 for a rise to 20790-800 / 20880-916 / 21000-095 / 21150 & 21275
b) The auction has immediate support at 20700-685 below which it could test levels of 20628-592 / 20526 / 20460-425 / 20358-322 / 20248-220 & 20180-100*

Extended Hypos:
c) Above 21275, BNF can probe higher to 21312-393 / 21460-480 / 21530-574 / 21634-715 & 21788
d) Below 20100, lower levels of 20045-19995 / 19908 / 19860-814 / 19760-690 & 19600*-510 could come into play

-Additional Hypos`-
e) BNF sustaining above 21788` could start a new leg up to 21822-842 / 21910 / 22000-110 / 22200 & 22350-380
f) If 19510` is taken out, BNF could fall further to 19476-433 / 19380-368 / 19290-230 / 19184-125 & 19044-18970

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