Market Profile Analysis dated 29th September 2020

Nifty Oct F:  11235 [ 11298 / 11186 ]

NF opened higher and went on to make a high of 11298 in the ‘A’ period but could not continue higher as it then broke below VWAP and trended lower getting back into previous day’s range and completing the 80% Rule in the Value Area as it made a low of 11186 in the ‘H’ period stopping just at the VAL and also above the PBL (Pull Back Low) and Extension Handle of 11182. This led to a bounce in the ‘J’ & ‘K’ periods as the auction got above VWAP and went on to test the morning selling tail as it left a PBH at 11290 before closing the day around the dPOC leaving a nice Gaussian profile. Value for the day was mostly overlapping so we once again have a 2-day composite with a prominent POC from 11191-111234-11263 and a good chance of getting a move away from here in the next couple of sessions.

Click here to view NF forming another 2-day composite on MPLite

  • The NF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
  • The Day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (Gaussian profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11238 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11240 with volumes of 135.1 L and range of 112 points as it made a High-Low of 11298-11186
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10857 on 25/09 and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 11165 on 28/09. This FA is currently on ‘T+3’ Days
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 10830
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11353 & 11560 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 11311 & 11311 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 10897 & 10803 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11202-11238-11263

HVNs – 10962 / 11229

Main Hypos for 30.09.2020:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11245 for a rise to 11265 / 11290-301 / 11321-355 & 11395
b) The auction staying below 11225 could test 11200-191 / 11158-145 & 11120-090

Extended Hypos:
c) Above 11395, NF can probe higher to 11410 / 11440-461 / 11495 & 11508*-520
d) If 11090 is taken out, NF could fall to 11058-040 / 11013 & 10990-960


BankNifty Oct F:  21450 [ 21840 / 21312 ]

BNF opened above 21760 and went on to hit 21840 in the opening minutes but got stalled right below previous week’s extension handle of 21853 which indicated that the supply was back in this zone which reversed the probe to the downside as the auction not only broke below VWAP but went on to complete the 80% Rule in previous day’s Value in the IB itself where ot left a big selling tail from 21616 to 21840 and it fell by 412 points leaving a second successive large IB range this week. BNF then made a RE lower in the ‘D’ period as it made new lows of 21326 but could not extend further which was a sign that the shorts must be booking out at lows and this led to a VWAP test in the ‘E’ period where it was rejecting showing that the sellers were re-loading. The auction then made a slow probe lower and made another attempt to break lower in the ‘I’ period but could only make a marginal new low of 21312 as it got back into the IB confirming that the sellers were getting exhausted triggering a short covering move above VWAP as BNF went on to test the morning selling tail and left a PBH at 21646 before closing the day at 21450 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile for the day which suggests long liquidation. Value was overlapping to lower and similar to NF, we have a 2-day composite here as well at 21335-21386-21631 and would need to watch for initiative volumes for a move away from this balance in the coming session(s).

Click here to view BNF also forming another 2-day composite on MPLite

  • The BNF Open was a Open Rejection Reverse – Down (ORR)
  • The Day type was a Normal Day (‘b’ shape profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 21400 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 21476 with volumes of 78.5 L and range of 527 points as it made a High-Low of 21840-21312
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 20431 on 25/09 and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 21490 on 28/09. This FA is currently on ‘T+3’ Days.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 20490
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 22320 & 22320 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 22444 & 21595 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 22163 & 22087 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 21328-21400-21538

HVNs – 20538 / 20822 / 21385 / 21630

Main Hypos for 30.09.2020:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 21476 for a rise to 21530-586 / 21645-700 / 21750-853 / 21950-970* & 22085
b) The auction staying below 21450 could test 21385-300 / 21200-160 / 21090-024 / 20970-920 & 20846-800

Extended Hypos:

c) Above 22085, BNF can probe higher to 22157-227 / 22300 / 22401-436* / 22490-579 & 22640-675
d) Breaking below 20800, it could fall to 20725-624 / 20556-535 / 20485-431 / 20366-261 & 20181*

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