Market Profile Analysis dated 30th Jan

Nifty Jan F:

NF gave a gap up opening above previous day high and made a high of 10714 at open after which it auctioned around the open for most of the ‘A’ period before probing lower to tag 10675 and closed the period at the lows. The ‘B’ period made a new low at 10670 at the start where it got rejected and the auction probed higher to tag VWAP and to close the ‘B’ period at highs after which the ‘C’ period could not get above ‘B’ period highs & saw rejection from VWAP and went on to break the IBL of 10670 which was also a support level and this triggered a big move down as NF went on to tag the yPOC of 10625 making a 2 IB Range Extension downside making a low of 10620 all in the C period itself making the profile too stretched and the imbalance gave way to a balance forming as NF retraced the fall and one time framed higher till the ‘H’ period where it made a high of 10688. The auction then remained in a narrow range for the next 2 periods giving a pull back low at 10651 after which NF again probed higher in the ‘K’ period getting above the ‘H’ period high of 10688 and looked like there was a spike up coming but NF got rejected at the round figure of 10700 and got back into the IB (Initial Balance) and went on to break VWAP to give a big move down similar to the one it gave in the ‘C’ period making a low of 10641. The auction continued it’s probe lower in the ‘L’ period as it made new lows of the day at 10606 but found support there to arrest the down move and retraced the fall to get back to VWAP and closed at the dPOC. The Range & Value for the day were almost same as previous day’s and NF has formed a nice 3-day composite ‘b’ profile so can give a move away from here soon.

• • The NF Open was a Open Auction
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down)
  • Largest volume was traded at 10646 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10660 with volumes of 130.3 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 10714-10606 for a range of 108 points 
  • NF had confirmed a FA at 10962 on 23/01 and has completed the 2 ATR move down to 10755. This FA is currently on ‘T+6’ days
  • NF completed the 2 ATR move down of 10610 from the negated FA of 10811 on 29/01
  • NF had left a FA at 10678 on 04/01 and tagged the 1 ATR move of 10803 & closed above it. The 2 ATR target of 10928 was tagged on 15/01. The auction broke below this FA today and closed below it
  • NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 10796 & 10741 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 10480 & 10580 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of 31/10 10250 & 10248 will be important levels going forward

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10617-10646-10676

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF stays weak below 10640-635 and for a probe down to 10620 & 10608-605
b) Immediate resistance at 10660-671 above which the auction can move to 10701 and 10720
c) Below 10605, NF can fall to 10590 and the vPOC of 10566
d) Sustaining above 10720, NF can probe higher to tag 10745-760

BankNifty Jan F:

BNF opened with a gap up but was not able to sustain above the FA of 26849 and was making a balance in a narrow range of 75 points from 26825 to 26750 in the Initial Balance after which it probed lower in the ‘C’ period breaking below the dPOC of 26730 and made a low of 26686. The auction then stayed below IBL but could not extend the range further down balancing between 26700 & 26750 till the ‘F’ period and this meant that there were no new sellers below VWAP & IBL to take it further down hence the PLR could turn up once BNF got back above VWAP. The ‘E’ period had also been rejected at VWAP and left a pull back high at 26765 which was the level to be sustained for more confirmation which came in the ‘G’ period as the auction closed above both VWAP & 26675. BNF went on to make a high of 26846 in the ‘H’ period again stalling at that FA level of 26849 after which in the ‘I’ period it tested VWAP and held indicating that buyers are still defending. The ‘J’ period was an inside bar but above VWAP and BNF then got a push to the upside as the ‘K’ period started as it finally got above that 26849 level and also the extension handle of 26868 and went on to make new day highs at 26917. BNF however could not sustain the new highs and once it got back below the 26868-849 levels there was a quick liquidation break which saw the auction probe below VWAP making a low of 26700 just at the start of the ‘L’ period where it got rejected and then got back above 26730 first and then the IBL and went on to close above VWAP after making a high of 26856 giving a consecutive Neutral Centre Day with mostly higher Value.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction in Range
• The day type was a Neutral Centre Day
• Largest volume was traded at 26790 F
• Vwap of the session was at 26783 with volumes of 26.5 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 26917-26686 for a range of 231 points
• BNF had confirmed a FA at 26849 on 29/01 and tagged the 1 ATR level of 26605 that day itself. It got above this FA today but has closed below it. A move below 26600 again could trigger the 2 ATR move down to 26361
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27611 on 23/1 and closed below the 2 ATR level of 27153 hence is now strong resistance
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively, today’s close has been around the Dec VWAP
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively
• 31st October’s VWAP of 24895 & POC of 24900 will be important levels going forward

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 26740-26790-26845

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate resistance at 26845-856 above which it can probe higher to 26930-944 and 26995
b) Staying below 26846, BNF can test 26790 and 26750-730
c) Below 26730, BNF gets weak for a move to 26685 and 26643
d) Above 26995, the auction can tag 27043 and 27093
e) If BNF breaks & sustains below 26643, it can fall to 26593-580 and 26510

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