Market Profile Analysis dated 3rd September

Nifty Sep F:  10836 [ 10970 / 10813 ]

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘NF has formed overlapping Value for the last 2 days with HVNs at 11069 & 11004 which would be the important references for the open in the coming session‘ and today NF opened with a big gap down of 120 points below both these references as the auction moved away from the 2-day overlapping Value as it made a low of 10913 in the ‘A’ period staying inside the previous day’s range. The auction then probed higher in the ‘B’ period as it matched the ‘A’ highs of 10970 but was not able to enter the previous day’s Value which was an indication that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) continues to remain to the downside. (Click here to view the profile chart for September NF for better understanding) NF then made a RE (Range Extension) to the downside in the dreaded ‘C’ period as it made lows of 10908 but was still unable to break below the PDL (Previous Day Low) after which it balanced in a narrow range for the next 3 periods staying within the ‘C’ period range while making similar highs of 10942-943 confirming that probe to the upside is getting exhausted thus the PLR remained lower. The auction then made a fresh RE lower in the G period as it made a low of 10893 but there was still no sign of new OTF (Other Time Frame) sellers as NF still remained inside the previous day’s range as it made an inside bar in the H period. The ‘I’ period then made yet another RE down making a new low of 10875 finally breaking below the PDL with ‘J’ following with a lower low of 10864 almost tagging the 2 IB move down. The auction then gave the typical afternoon pull back in the K period as it probed higher but got rejected at the powerful combination of VWAP & IBL leaving a pull back high at 10911 which meant that the OTF sellers have entered and will want to take control of the close. NF then spiked lower into the close as it made a trending move in the last 45 minutes almost tagging the 3 IB objective of 10799 as it made lows of 10813. Spike Rules will come into play for tomorrow’s open & the spike reference is from 10865 to 10813.

  • The NF Open was an Open Rejection Reverse -Down (ORR)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (with a Spike close)
  • Largest volume was traded at 10925 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10909 with volumes of 139.8 L and range of 157 points as it made a High-Low of 10970-10813
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11079 on 29/08 & tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10906 on 30/08. The 2 ATR move down comes to 10733
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 26/08 at 10886 10951 would be important references on the downside.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 19/07 at 11478 11523 are now positional references on the upside.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 11010
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 11833 & 11714 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10882-10925-10964

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 10818 for a probe higher to 10836-850 / 10865 & 10890-900
b) Immediate support is at 10813-800 below which auction can test 10780-760 / 10746-733 & 10716
c) Above 10900, NF can probe higher to 10925-936 & 10962-977
d) Below 10716, auction becomes weak for 10680-676 / 10655 & 10640-631
e) If 10977 is taken out, the auction can rise to 11004-010 / 11028-35 & 11049
f) Break of 10631 can trigger a move lower to 10619-615 / 10586-582 & 10566


BankNifty Sep F: 26873 [ 27333 / 26802 ]

BNF not only opened with a big gap down of 200 points but also gave a drive lower as it broke below the PDL of 27151 in the A period itself and left a big selling tail from 27185 to 27333 at top in the IB as it made lows of 27010 looking weak for more downside. (Click here to view the profile chart for September BNF for better understanding) The auction then balanced in a narrow range within the IB for the next 4 periods as it made a slow probe to the upside till the E period where it made a high of 27149 stalling right at the PDL which was an important signal as BNF then resumed the probe to the downside and made a fresh RE in the ‘G’ period as it made new lows of 26967. Like in NF, the H period then made an inside bar and the ‘I’ period left a pull back high at 27093 before making multiple RE down in the next 2 periods as it tagged 26922 in the ‘J’ period. The ‘K’ period gave the customary pull back to VWAP as it left a new pull back high of 27049 after which the auction spiked lower in the last 2 periods to make new lows of 26802 to leave a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with a spike lower. Spike Rules will apply at open in the next session & the spike zone is from 26802 to 26922.

  • The BNF Open was an Open Drive – Down (OD)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (‘b’ profile with a spike close)
  • Largest volume was traded at 27080 F
  • Vwap of the session was also at 27033 with volumes of 35.4 L in a session which traded in a range of 531 points making a High-Low of 27333-26802
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 19/07 at 30085 is now positional supply point.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 18/07 & 08/07 at 30598 & 30995 remain important references going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 27450
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 30914 & 30961 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 26975-27080-27139

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to get above 26900-925 and sustain for a rise to 26975 / 27020 & 27072-95
b) Staying below 26810-790, the auction could test 26728 / 26660-640 & 26593
c) Above 27095, BNF can probe higher to 27140-185 / 27250 & 27320-330
d) Below 26593, lower levels of 26530-520 & 26465-440 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 27330, BNF can give a fresh move up to 27400-405 & 27498-510
f) Break of 26440 could trigger a move down 26395-360 / 26295 & 26345-225

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