Market Profile Analysis dated 4th Feb 2020

Nifty Feb F:  11964 [ 11975 / 11750 ]

HVNs – 11635 / 11685 / (11803) / 11932 / 11965-978 / 12055 / 12078

Previous day’s report ended with this ‘Acceptance above 11712 in the next session could lead to a test of the Trend Day POC of 11820 above which we have the important supply zone of 11847 to 11867

NF opened with a gap up above that 11712 level leading to a drive higher towards the zone of 11847-867 as it made highs of 11833 after leaving a buying tail from 11793 to 11750 in the IB (Initial Balance). The auction continued to probe higher making a C side extension as it not only tagged the Budget Day extension handle of 11867 but continued taking out all the new supply which was coming in as it made fresh REs in the ‘E’ & ‘F’ period also completing the 2 IB objective of 11917 while hitting highs of 11938. This OTF (One Time Frame) move finally stopped in the ‘G’ period as NF then left a PBL (Pull Back Low) in the ‘H’ period at 11896 not even tagging the VWAP even once all day which indicated that the buyers are in complete control leading to fresh REs into the close as the auction hit 11975 which was a HVN on the Trend Day before closing the day at 11964 leaving an elongated ‘p’ shape profile which can also be taken as a Double Distribution Trend Day with a mini balance in the upper half. Value for the day was higher with a gap so acceptance above 11970 in the coming session could see the higher VPOC of 12024 & the HVNs of 12055 & 12078 getting tagged. Staying below 11964, next support is in the zone of 11932-11925 which if broken can bring a test of 11888.

  • The NF Open was an Open Auction Out of Range + Drive  (OAOR + D)
  • The day type was a Double Distribution Trend Day (elongated ‘p’ shape profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11932 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11888 with volumes of 151.5 L and range of 225 points as it made a High-Low of 11975-11750
  • NF confirmed the first FA of the new series at 12020 on 01/02  and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 11817 on the same day. This FA is currently on ‘T+3‘ Days.
  • The 1st Feb Trend Day VWAP of 11847 would be an important reference for this series. This has been taken out on 04/02 effectively negating the supply here completely.
  • The 20th Jan Trend Day VWAP of 12336 remains positional supply point.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Feb) is 12044
  • The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 12178 & 12132 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 12087 & 12182 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 11954 & 11910 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11850-11932-11970

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11970 for a move to 11988 / 12010-20 / 12040-44 & 12057*
b) Staying below 11964, the auction could fall to 11944-925 / 11910-904 & 11888
c) Above 12057, NF can probe higher to 12078-086 / 12102 & 12120-130
d) Below 11888 auction gets weak for a test of 11864-862 / 11826 & 11805*
e) If 12130 is taken out, the auction go up to to 12146 / 12159-165 & 12185-189*
f) Break of 11805 can trigger a move lower to 11791 / 11763 & 11750-745


BankNifty Feb F:  30718 [ 30799 / 30191 ]

HVNs – 29900 / (30040) / (30150) / 30355 / 30720 / 30770 / 30984

BNF has also formed an elongated ‘p’ shape trending profile after opening higher & leaving a buying tail from 30285 to 30191 after which it continued to march higher for the first 6 periods completing the 3 IB objective of 30728 as it tagged the VPOC of 30780 it left on the Bugdet Day. Post this 800 point rise from previous close, the auction then formed a balance for the rest of the day building volumes at 30720 and looks set to give another move away from this level in the coming session(s)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Auction Out of Range + Drive  (OAOR + D)
  • The day type was a Double Distribution Trend Day (elongated ‘p’ shape profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 30720 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 30610 with volumes of 44 L and range of 608 points as it made a High-Low of 30799-30191
  • BNF confirmed the second FA of this series at 30990 on 01/02  and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 30217 on the same day. This FA is currently on ‘T+3‘ Days.
  • BNF confirmed the first FA of the new series at 31126 on 31/01  and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 30345 on 01/02. This FA is currently on ‘T+4‘ Days.
  • The 1st Feb Trend Day VWAP of 30387 would be an important reference for this series. This has been taken out effectively negating the supply here completely.
  • The 20th Jan Trend Day VWAP of 31500 remains positional supply point.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Feb) is 30726
  • The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 31425 & 32104 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 31956 & 32102 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 30699 & 31100 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30428-30720-30785

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 30720 for a rise to 30762-798 / 30856-900 & 30980-990
b) Staying below 30720, the auction could test 30665 / 30616-585 & 30500-475
c) Above 30990, BNF can probe higher to 31050-80 / 31126 & 31190-200
d) Below 30475, lower levels of 30410-388 / 30328-313 & 30285-249 could be tagged
e) If 31200 is taken out, BNF can give a fresh move up to 31250-285 / 31330-383 & 31447
f) Break of 30249 could trigger a move down to 30190 / 30150-100 & 30060-040

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