Market Profile Analysis dated 9th September

Nifty Sep F:  11025 [ 11058 / 10915 ]

NF opened below the HVN & yPOC of 10968 and made a probe to the downside almost checking the small buying tail of previous day which was from 10908 to 10882 but took support just above it as it made a low of 10915 in the opening 10 minutes which was an indication that the demand was coming back at these levels. The auction then reversed to the upside & gave a big surge in the ‘B’ period leaving an extension handle at 10967 as it not only made new highs for the day but went on to scale above the PDH (Previous Day High) rising more than 100 points from the lows as it made a IBH of 11029 giving a large IB range of 113 points. (Click here to view the profile chart for September NF for better understanding) NF went on to make a Range Extension (RE) higher as early as in the ‘C’ period and tagged 11047 but the large IB range was preventing it from further upside as it made similar highs in the next 3 periods to indicate exhaustion. The ‘G’ period saw a fresh RE to the upside as NF tagged 11058 but once again was not able to sustain the new highs as it gave another set of similar highs in the ‘H’ & ‘I’ periods at 11054 which meant there was no new demand coming in & the late buyers could get into trouble. The auction then saw an inventory adjustment happening in the ‘I’ & ‘J’ periods as it broke below VWAP and made a low of 10986 stopping right above the PDH which was also the previous week’s high and would be an important support zone for the rest of the week along with the extension handle of 10967. NF got back above VWAP & closed the day at the dPOC of 11025 which will be the immediate reference for the next session and staying above it the PLR would remain to the upside but has a supply zone right above between 11049 to 11079.

On a larger time frame, we have a big composite in play from 31st July till date (click here to view the composite) with Value at 10853-11006-11049 and the VAH is which is where NF got stalled today and needs to sustain above it after which it has the FA of 11079 which has not been revisited even after ‘T+6’ Days and is now positional supply point.

  • The NF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Up) – ‘p’ shape profile
  • Largest volume was traded at 11025 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11011 with volumes of 99.9 L and range of 142 points as it made a High-Low of 11058-10915
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10960 on 05/09 which was negated on 06/09 as NF closed above it. This FA got revisited again on 09/09 but closed above yet again so the 1 ATR move of 11124 is still open till 10960 is held.
  • NF confirmed a FA at 10785 on 04/09 & tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10958. The 2 ATR move up comes to 11131
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11079 on 29/08 & tagged the 1 ATR objective of 10906 on 30/08. The 2 ATR move down comes to 10733. This FA is currently on ‘T+7’ Days
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 26/08 at 10886 10951 would be important references on the downside.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 19/07 at 11478 11523 are now positional references on the upside.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 11010
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 11833 & 11714 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11004-11025-11048

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11025 for a probe higher to 11037-58 & 11077-79
b) Staying below 11025 at open, the auction can test 11010-04 & 10984-967
c) Above 11079, NF can probe higher to 11092-107 & 11129-131
d) Below 10967, auction becomes weak for 10954-940 & 10926-900
e) If 11131 is taken out, the auction can rise to & 11157 & 11175-180
f) Break of 10900 can trigger a move lower to 10881-870 & 10854-845


BankNifty Sep F: 27551 [ 27609 / 27035 ]

BNF also gave a gap down and similar to NF stayed below the yPOC & probed lower in the first 10 minutes as it tested the buying tail of 27144 to 26994 while making a low of 27035 taking support just above the PDL of 27025 which indicated that the downside looks limited. The auction then closed the ‘A’ period above VWAP which was further confirmation that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) is now to the upside and this was followed by a big move in the ‘B’ period as BNF left an extension handle at 27268 and went on to scale above previous week’s high as it hit 27488 in the Initial Balance (IB). (Click here to view the profile chart for September BNF for better understanding). The auction then made a ‘C’ side RE to the upside as it tagged the vPOC of 27498 and went on to make a high of 27564 and stayed above VWAP making multiple REs in the E, F & G periods but could only make marginally higher highs as it tagged 27608 and then consolidated making an inside bar in the H period as it remained in a narrow range of less than 40 points. The ‘I’ period saw an attempt to probe higher but made similar highs of 27609 which made it clear that the trade facilitation is getting poorer on the upside. BNF then gave a dip over the next 2 periods as it left a PBL (Pull Back Low) of 27467 in the ‘J’ period and made a balance above VWAP for the rest of the day building volumes at 27550 and eventually closed at it leaving higher Value on the daily for the second consecutive day. The daily profile is a ‘p’ shape one so BNF needs to sustain above 27550 for more upside in the coming session(s) whereas it has good support at 27450 and would get weak below it.

  • The BNF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Up)‘p’ shape profile
  • Largest volume was traded at 27550 F
  • Vwap of the session was also at 27460 with volumes of 33.5 L in a session which traded in a range of 574 points making a High-Low of 27609-27035
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 19/07 at 30085 is now positional supply point.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 18/07 & 08/07 at 30598 & 30995 remain important references going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point is 27450
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 30914 & 30961 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 27454-27550-27603

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to get above 27576-608 & sustain for a rise to 27674-690 / 27735-780 & 27830
b) Staying below 27550, the auction could test 27472-448 / 27398 & 27350
c) Above 27830, BNF can probe higher to 27896-915 & 27996-28000
d) Below 27350, lower levels of 27300-295 / 27240-184 & 27128-112 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 28000, BNF can give a fresh move up to 28063-75 / 28120 & 28176-183
f) Break of 27112 could trigger a move down 27080-75 / 27000 & 26936-920

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