Monthly charts (April 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  14631 [ 15044 / 14151 ]

Monthly Profile (April 2021)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Nifty has formed a 3-1-3 balanced profile for the month after getting rejected on the upside from previous month’s VAH leaving a small selling tail from 15273 to 15336 on the monthly timeframe which reversed the auction to the downside as it went on to test previous month’s buying tail of 14467 to 13662 while making a low of 14264 on 25th Mar where it left a small buying tail from 14350 to 14264 indicating end of the down move and closed the month just below the POC of 14737 leaving an inside bar both in terms of Range & Vaule. This month’s Value was completely overlapping at 14616-14737-15120 and this balance could lead to an imbalance in the month of April provided one of the tails of this month get negated

Nifty not only opened the month with a Neutral profile but saw dual auction happening all through April and formed a 3-1-3 balance once again on the monthly timeframe leaving a Neutral Centre profile with small tails at both ends and overlapping to lower Value at 14364-14375-14868. The auction did make an attempt to negate previous month’s buying tail and even made new lows of 14151 on 22nd Apr but was swiftly rejected leading to a trending move higher in the last week as it made new highs for the month at 15044 on 29th Apr with a gap up open but was rejected right below the weekly FA & positional reference of 15052 triggering a pull back of almost 450 points into the closing day of the month. This balance & the Neutral profile on the higher timeframe inceases the odds of an imbalance and a big move coming in the month of May.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of April on MPLite

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 14576 spot and the POC is at 14375
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 14925 F.

The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 14816 spot and the POC is at 14737
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 14425 F.

The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 14893 spot and the POC is at 15115
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 15174 F.

The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 14288 spot and the POC is at 14569
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 13809 F.

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 13528 spot and the POC is at 13528
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 14007 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 12554 spot and the POC is at 12862
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 12974 F.


BankNifty Spot –  32782 [ 34287 / 30405 ]

Monthly Profile (April 2021)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile has a FA at top but a good buying tail from 33151 to 32415 at the lows with Value being mostly lower at 32738-33870-35326 but has formed an inside bar on the monthly with a close right at the POC so can expect a good move in the coming month’

BankNifty began the month with a gap up & formed a Neutral Extreme Up profile on 1st Apr as it made a high of 33949 but got rejected from previous month’s POC of 33870 giving a huge liquidation on 5th Apr negating previous month’s buying tail as it made a low of 32330 which was followed by a balance in the first week as it formed a composite ‘b’ shape profile indicating weakness. The auction then began the second week with a big gap down leading to fresh liquidation as BankNifty negated the monthly buying tail of Feb also breaking below 30906 as it hit 30520 late on 12th Apr but closed the day with yet another ‘b’ shape profile which meant that the selling was getting a bit streched after the 3400+ point downmove from the start of the month and this led to a bounce for the rest of the week resulting in highs of 32325 on Friday where it left a Normal Day marking the end of the bounce also. The third week began just like the previous one with another huge gap up of almost 1000 points and saw a further fall in the IB on 19th Apr as the auction made new lows for the month at 30405 but could once again could not find fresh selling in this zone resulting in a short covering squeeze into the close which change the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) to the upside not just for the week but also for the next one as BankNifty trended higher till 29th Apr where it made new highs for the month with the help of a gap up but left an initiative selling tail in the IB from 34135 to 34287 marking the end of the upmove as it formed a balanced profile with a prominent POC at 33677 and closed the month just the way it started which was with a Neutral Extreme profile but this time it was to the downside as it confirmed a daily FA at 33455 which means the PLR is now to the downside with the monthly Value also forming lower at 31410-32490-33750.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of April on MPLite

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 32260 spot and the POC is at 32490
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 33765 F.

The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 34618 spot and the POC is at 33870
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 33250 F.

The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 35530 spot and the POC is at 35820
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 36719 F.

The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 31597 spot and the POC is at 32062
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 30445 F.

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 30270 spot and the POC is at 30766
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 31389 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 28103 spot and the POC is at 29565
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 29629 F.