Monthly charts (December 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  13982 [ 14025 / 12963 ]

Monthly Profile (December 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile once again represents a ‘p’ shape with a huge range of 1588 points which saw a trending move higher in the first half with multiple extension handles but formed a large composite in the second half of the month with the composite POC at 12862 which would be the important reference for the coming month. Value as expected was completely higher at 12528-12862-13140 but has a selling tail at top from 13080 to 13146 which would be the zone to be taken out on the upside

Nifty opened the month with a gap up along with a drive as it got accepted in the selling tail of 13080 to 13146 forming a 2-day balance with a prominent POC at 13085 after which it left an extension handle at 13128 to give the first trending move higher for the month forming higher highs over the next 5 days as it hit 13549 on 9th Dec. This imbalance then led to a 5-day balance till 15th Dec as the auction formed Value at 13489-13566-13593 and gave a move away from here with a gap up on 16th Dec where it also confirmed a FA at 13447 which was followed by similar new highs for the month being formed at 13773 on 17th & 18th Dec. These poor highs were a sign of exhaution indicating that the auction was getting too strecthed on the upside and though they were repaired by new highs of 13777 on 21st Dec, it was swiftly rejected resulting in Nifty confirming a FA at the new ATH (All Time High) which triggered a huge liquidation move of 646 points on the same day as Nifty went on to negate the FA of 13447 while making a low of 13131 retracing the entire rise it had made from 3rd Dec taking support just above the extension handle of 13128 and previous month’s VAH of 13140. The fall was more emotional became obvious as Nifty trended higher for the rest of the week and confrimed a new FA at lows of 13627 on 24th Dec as it made a high of 13772. The last week of December saw a gap up open on 28th Dec as the auction completed the 1 ATR objective of 13796 from the latest FA of 13627 and in the process negated the FA of 13777 but was stuck in a narrow range for most part of the day before it confirmed another FA at lows of 13811 which meant that the PLR was on the upside. Nifty then formed higher highs over the last 3 days of the month as it left the 3rd FA in 4 days at 13865 on 30th Dec and almost tagged the 1 ATR target of 14034 on the last day of the month & year where it made a high of 14025 before closing the month at 13982.

The monthly profile is a trending one to the upside with 2 extension handles at 13128 & 13777 and completely higher Value at 13209-13528-13769. The triumvirate daily FAs of 13865 / 13811 & 13627 would be the important references on the downside for the coming month along with the monthly POC / VWAP combo of 13528 which remains the important level that needs to be held. On the upside, the zone of 14202 to 14267 would be on watch for return of supply.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of December on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 13528 spot and the POC is at 13528
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 14007 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 12554 spot and the POC is at 12862
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 12974 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 11793 spot and the POC is at 11897
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 11665 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 11320 spot and the POC is at 11560
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 10830 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 11311 spot and the POC is at 11311
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 11607 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 10897 spot and the POC is at 10803
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 11095 F.


BankNifty Spot –  31264 [ 31510 / 28976 ]

Monthly Profile (December 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is an elongated one with a huge range of 6077 points with the first half being a completely one side probe higher with three extension handles at 25920 / 26400 & 27600 and a balance being formed in the latter half of the month with the composite POC at 29565 which would be the immediate reference for the new month on the downside along with the immediate daily VPOC of 29166. Value for the month was completely higher at 27150-29565-30150 but we also have a selling tail from 29828 to 30197 which would be the zone to watch on the upside’

BankNifty opened the month with a move away from the monthly POC of 29565 as it left an initiative buying tail on 1st Dec but could only form a ‘p’ shape profile for the day as it entered November’s selling tail of 29828 to 30197 and met aggressive supply which led to a Trend Day Down on 2nd Dec where it made a low of 29149 with the auction taking support at the daily VPOC of 29166 after which it formed an inside bar on the 3rd leaving a nice 3-day balance with Value at 29523-29675-29877. The next day saw continuation of this balance with Value also being inside but the confirmation of a FA at day’s low of 29473 induced a spike higher into the close as BankNifty went on to tag the 1 ATR objective of 30145 while making a high of 30162 and continued this imbalance in the next week as it left another FA at 29950 on 7th Dec and went on to make similar highs near 30810 which indicated return of balance as the auction formed a 8-day composite from 9th to 18th December with Value at 30470-30766-30809. The third week of December opened with a gap down as the balance led to a huge imbalance of 1406 points on 21st Dec which continued the next day as the auction made new lows for the month at 28976 but left a small but important tail at lows indicating that the probe to the downside was over as it closed as a Neutral Extreme Day. BankNifty then gave back to back Drive Up open for the next 2 days as it retraced the entire fall of 21st Dec and in the process confirmed a monthly FA at 28976 and began the last week of December with a gap up plus a drive continuing the imbalance on 29th Dec also as it not only made new highs for the month but also confirmed a fresh FA at 31002 and went on to complete the 1 ATR objective of 31502 with a gap up on 30th Dec but made an Open Rejection Reverse start confirming that the upside probe was now done with after a huge 2500 point move in just 5 sessions. The month ended with a 3-day balance building a prominent POC at 31300 and can expect a move away from here in the coming session(s). Value for the month was overlapping to higher at 29520-30766-30840 with the immediate references on the downside being the FA of 31002 & the extension handle of 30945.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of December on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 30270 spot and the POC is at 30766
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 31389 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 28103 spot and the POC is at 29565
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 29629 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 23740 spot and the POC is at 24468
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 24110 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 22246 spot and the POC is at 22405
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 20490 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 22444 spot and the POC is at 21595
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 23576 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 22163 spot and the POC is at 22087
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 21615 F.