Nifty Spot – 10302 [ 10553 / 9544 ]
Monthly Profile (June 2020)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Nifty has not only formed an inside bar on the monthly timeframe but this month’s Value at 9024-9106-9432 is also completely inside previous Value which means that Nifty is still in balance mode on the higher timeframe after the huge imbalance it saw in March but with the close at highs, June promises to be a big month
Nifty opened the month with a gap up & trended higher for the first week as it made highs of 10178 and followed it up with another big gap up in the second week as it made an almost OH (Open=High) start at 10328 which not only marked the end of the upmove but also resulted in a reversal as the auction trended lower all week forming Value lower on the daily and the move down culminated in a big gap down open on Friday (12th June) as it got back into previous month’s range but was swiftly rejected after an OL (Open=Low) start at 9544 as it left a long buying tail. The third week started with a balance for the first 3 days and gave an initiative move on the upside on 18th June after which Nifty made a high of 10272 for the week before closing at 10244 thereby confirming a monthly FA (Failed Auction) at the lows of the month. The fourth week started with another gap up as the auction made new highs for the month & continued to probe higher tagging the 1 ATR objective of 10480 in a spike close on 23rd June and continued this imbalance on the 24th as it opened higher but made a failed C Side Range Extension resulting in a FA being confirmed at 10553 on the daily which signalled the end of the upside probe. The FA triggered a trending move down resulting in a 270 point drop in the day as Nifty made lows of 10282 and opened lower the next day and made a low of 10194 in the Initial Balance as it took support at the daily VPOC of 19th June hinting that the move lower for the time being is done. The auction then formed a balance over the last 4 days of the month with a prominent TPO POC at 10355 from where it would need to give an initiative move away for the next leg of imbalance to begin.
The monthly range was of 1009 points with Value completely higher at 9820-10110-10320 with Nifty resembling a nice balanced 3-1-3 profile with rejections at both ends and the auction could continue to remain in this range in the coming month for a probable test of 10110 & 9930 if it does not negate the selling tail of 10485 to 10553.
The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 10110 spot and the POC is at 10110
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 10240 F.
The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 9200 spot and the POC is at 9106
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 9426 F.
The VWAP of the April 2020 series is at 8999 spot and the POC is at 9010
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 9822 F.
The VWAP of the March 2020 series is at 9146 spot and the POC is at 8592
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 8686 F.
The VWAP of the February 2020 series is at 11944 spot and the POC is at 12125
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 11610 F.
The VWAP of the January 2020 series is at 12178 spot and the POC is at 12132
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 12044 F.
BankNifty Spot – 21370 [ 22479 / 19507 ]
Monthly Profile (June 2020)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile has overlapping to lower Value at 17880-19633-20100 along with a HVN at 19320 which would be the first reference on the upside for the coming month. The ability to stay above 19320 & then take out the POC of 19633 could lead to a fresh leg up in June
BankNifty opened with a big gap up this month much above that HVN of 19320 as it made a low exactly at 19633 on 1st June which confirmed that the PLR is to the upside from where it rallied almost 2000 points over the first 3 days of the month while making a high of 21619 on 3rd June as it stalled just below the Value of 30th April 2020 profile which began the new leg down. The auction then made a retracment to 20316 the next day as it formed a 2-day balance but confirmed a daily FA at 20425 on 5th June which triggered a fresh probe higher resulting in a Neutral Extreme profile as it made highs of 21199 before closing the first week at 21034. This imbalance continued in the form of a big gap up open in the second week as BankNifty made new highs for the month at 21807 but once again got rejected from the 30th April profile ending up as a Double Distribution Trend Day down on Monday which started a series of overlapping to lower value being formed for the next 6 days during which it made new lows for the month not once but twice as it tagged 19526 first on 12th June & then made a marginal lower low of 19507 on 16th June. The point to note was the fact that on both the occasions the auction left a buying tail indicating demand coming in at these levels which finally led to an initiative move higher on 18th June after the 5-day balance as BankNifty closed in a spike higher & continued this probe higher over the next 4 days as it confirmed a weekly as well as monthly FA at 19507 with a probable 1 ATR target of 22303 & 22615. The auction finally got above the 30th April highs as it made new highs for the month at 22078 on 22nd June and followed it up with tagging the weekly 1 ATR of 22303 on 23rd June looking set for the monthly 1 ATR of 22615 also. BankNifty opened higher yet again on 24th June but made an OH start at 22479 after which it left an initiative selling tail in the IB which meant that the upside probe was mostly over resulting in a big liquidation of more than 1000 points for the day and this imbalance continued on the next day as the auction fell by another 500 points making a low of 20926 as it took support in the buying tail of 19th June. Similar to Nifty, the last 4 days formed a balance with Value below the extension handle of the Trend Day and a prominent POC at 21480.
The monthly profile is a nicely balanced one with completely higher Value at 20160-21000-21660 and staying below 21480, the new month could see a probe lower towards 20210.
The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 20918 spot and the POC is at 21164
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 21430 F.
The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 18780 spot and the POC is at 19633
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 19035 F.
The VWAP of the April 2020 series is at 19605 spot and the POC is at 19710
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 21380 F.
The VWAP of the March 2020 series is at 22104 spot and the POC is at 20248
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 19380 F.
The VWAP of the February 2020 series is at 30692 spot and the POC is at 30692
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 30520 F.
The VWAP of the January 2020 series is at 31425 spot and the POC is at 32104
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 30726 F.