Monthly (October 2019) charts and Market Profile analysis

Monthly (October 2019) charts and Market Profile analysis 1

Nifty Spot – 11877 [ 11945 / 11090 ]

Monthly Profile (October)

Last month’s report ended with this ‘as this monthly DD is in middle of previous range, there is good chance of these singles being revisited in the coming month’

Nifty began the month with a big 300 point down day as it got into the previous month’s DD singles on the first day itself and continued to probed lower for the first 5 days making a low of 11090 on 9th October which was also a probable FA on the monthly time frame as the auction made Value in the DD zone before giving as move away from this balance on 15th Oct after which it made a big move on the upside for the rest of that week making new highs for the month and confirming that monthly FA of 11090. Nifty continued this imbalance at the start of next week as it made new highs of 11714 falling just short of the 1 ATR objective of 11735 from the FA and gave a retracement as the imbalance then led to a balanced week with a prominent POC at 11584. The last week of the month started a new imbalance to the upside as the auction left a Trend Day on 29th Oct and continued to rise for next 2 days as it made highs of 11945 on the 31st completing the 2 ATR move from the earlier monthly FA of 10670 but saw some profit booking in the last hour as it closed the month at 11877 with a Neutral Extreme Down profile on the daily but on the monthly it has given a Neutral Extreme Up profile. The Neutral extreme reference for the next month would be 11714 to 11945 which would be the first level of support below which we have this month’s Value at 11170-11290-11610. On the upside, Nifty will need to get accepted above 11945 for a new leg up towards the 2 ATR target of 12380 from this month’s FA of 11090.

Monthly (October 2019) charts and Market Profile analysis 2

Monthly Zones:

The vwap of the October series is at 11461 spot and the POC is at 11365
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 11970 F.

The vwap of the September series is at 11127 spot and the POC is at 10960
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 11630 F.

The vwap of the August series is at 10966 spot and the POC is at 10984
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 11010 F.

The vwap of the July series is at 11547 spot and the POC is at 11576
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 11315 F.

The vwap of the June series is at 11833 spot and the POC is at 11714
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 11915 F.

The vwap of the May series is at 11613 spot and the POC is at 11696
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 11980 F.


BankNifty Spot – 30066 [ 30415 / 29385 ]

Monthly Profile (October)

BankNifty has made an inside month in October filling up the low volume zone of previous month’s profile as it opened the month with a probe to the downside falling by almost 2000 points in the first 4 days as it made lows of 27568 on 7th Oct which was confirmed to be a short term bottom as it confirmed a FA on daily time frame the next day at 27700 triggering a big move higher as it gave a rise of more than 1000 points on the same day to tag 28857. The auction then remained in this range forming a balance over the next 5 days which in turn was part of a larger composite of 10 days giving a ‘b’ shape profile which meant that there was no new selling coming in (Click here to view the October action using daily profile charts). BankNifty then began a new leg up from 17th Oct moving away from this composite to trend higher as it made new highs for the month on 22nd hitting 29690 where it looked exhausted as made similar highs on 3 consecutive days which led to a retracement to 28923 as the auction probed lower to check for demand before resuming the upside probe in the last week as it gave a trending move higher into the last day of the month making highs of 30415 where it got swiftly rejected giving a big 400 point dip in the last hour and 15 mins before closing the month at 30066. Value for the month was also inside previous month’s Value at 27700-28540-29220 with the first support in the coming month at 29985 below which important level to watch would be 28690. On the upside, BankNifty will need to scale above 30415 for a probe towards the previous swing high of 30801.

Monthly (October 2019) charts and Market Profile analysis 3

Monthly Zones:

The vwap of the October series is at 28784 spot and the POC is at 28415
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 30150 F.

The vwap of the September series is at 28416 spot and the POC is at 27160
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 30230 F.

The vwap of the August series is at 27858 spot and the POC is at 27960
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 27450 F.

The vwap of the July series is at 30425 spot and the POC is at 30560
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 29250 F.

The vwap of the June series is at 30914 spot and the POC is at 30961
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 31400 F.

The vwap of the May series is at 30211 spot and the POC is at 28940
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 31644 F.

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