Monthly (September 2020) charts and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  11247 [ 11618 / 10790 ]

Monthly Profile (September 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Value for the month was higher at 11130-11311-11550 and has rejections at both ends with the selling tail being from 11617 to 11794 which would be the supply zone for the coming month. On the downside, 11311 would be the important level to hold which if taken out could lead to the test of the lower rejection from 11064 to 10882

Nifty opened the month forming a balance for the first 3 days after that big selling day of 31st August as it made Value below the selling tail of 11617 and made a big gap down open of 173 points on 4th Sep where it tested the combo of prevoius month’s POC / VWAP of 11311. The second week this month started on a bearish note as it made new lows of 11252 on 7th Sep followed by another lower low of 11185 on 9th where it confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) on both daily as well as weekly timeframe and this marked the end of the probe lower of the current leg. The auction then made a trending move higher over the next 6 days making higher highs on 5 of them completing the weekly 1 ATR objective of 11587 as it made highs of 11618 on 16th Sep stalling right at previous month’s selling tail indicating that the upside probe could be over. Nifty gave more confirmation of this as it formed a nice weekly balance in the third week with a prominent POC at 11559. The fourth week started with a daily FA being confrimed at 11535 on 21st Sep which led to a trending move lower not just for the day but the entire week as the auction left an extension handle at 11442 and a long selling tail till 11320 as it went on to make lows of 10790 tagging the monthly VPOC of 10803 on the 24th of Sep where it closed in a spike lower from 10840 to 10790. Monthly VPOCs are important references and Nifty made a good reaction from there as it opened higher on 25th Sep rejecting previous day’s spike down and later confirmed a new FA at 10855 which confirmed that the downmove was over. The auction then completed the 2 ATR objective of 11168 with a gap up open the next week and continued to probe higher as it tagged 11305 on 29th Sep but stalled right below the latest selling tail of 11320 to 11442 as it closed the month with a nice 3-day balance with a prominent POC at 11220 and looks set to give a move away from here at the start of the new month.

The monthly Value was mostly inside previous month’s Value at 11202-11559-11580 and even the range was moslty inside except for the 2 days where it it was swiftly rejected leaving daily extension handles at 11015 & 11072. Nifty has been forming a balance over the last 2 months over a wide range of 11150 to 11550 and could continue to remain in this range unless it negates one of the rejections of 11618 on the upside or 11072 on the downside in the coming month.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of September on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 11320 spot and the POC is at 11560
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 10830 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 11311 spot and the POC is at 11311
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 11607 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 10897 spot and the POC is at 10803
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 11095 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 10110 spot and the POC is at 10110
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 10240 F.

The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 9200 spot and the POC is at 9106
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 9426 F.

The VWAP of the April 2020 series is at 8999 spot and the POC is at 9010
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 9822 F.


BankNifty Spot –  21452 [ 24199 / 20405]

Monthly Profile (September 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘This month’s Value is at 21060-21595-23400 and is completely overlapping July’s range and has left multiple extension handles at 22440 / 22897 & 23180 which would be the important references on the downside in the coming month. The selling tail of 24611 to 25232 would be the zone to watch out for on the upside

It was a month of 3’s in BankNifty as it began the month with couple of 3-day composites and trended lower to form a Triple Distribution profile on the monthly which ended with yet another 3-day balance closing around the POC of the lower most distriubtion.

The auction opened this month in the lower part of the trend day down profile of 31st Aug as it remained below the PBH of 24289 and formed a 3-day Gaussian profile with similar lows near 23450 just above previous month’s VAH of 23400 but the first Friday of the month gave a strong bearish sign as it not only opened with a gap down of more than 400 points leaving an extension handle at 23451 but in the probe higher later in the day got rejected exaclty at previous month’s VAH while making a high of 23395 which confirmed that the PLR for the month would be down. BankNifty then trended lower for the first 3 days in the second week making lower highs & lower lows as it hit 22080 on 9th Sep, the day where it moved away from the 3-day composite POC pf 22975 which was the latest reference on the upside. The auction then formed a bigger composite of 7 days from 9th Sep to 17th Sep forming Value at 22189-22404-22509 and spent most of the day on 18th Sep also in this balance before it gave the next move lower in a late spike leaving an extension handle at 22250 signalling the start of a new imbalance. BankNifty trended lower all of next week as it got fueled by a daily FA at 22099 on 21st Sep as it left an extension handle at 21812 and went on to break below the monthly FA of 21027 repairing the poor lows of the last 2 months as it not only completed the 2 ATR objective of 20914 but fell by another 500 points in the week as it closed in a spike lower of 20600 to 20405 on 24th Sep. This spike was rejected with a gap up on 25th Sep and further confirmation of the lows for the month being made came in the form of a daily FA at 20430 on the same day from where the auction began a fresh probe higher as it completed the 2 ATR target of 21458 on 29th Sep while making a high of 21811 stalling right below the extension handle of 21st Sep. This imbalance then led to a balance being formed on the last 3 days of the month as BankNifty made yet another prominent POC at 21363 and looked set to move away from here.

The monthly Value was almost similar to previous month at 21030-22405-23100 and has mentioned above has 3 seperate distributions with the 3 respective HVNs at 21363, 22405 & 23698 which would be the important references in the coming month as BankNifty could look to fill up the low volume zone(s) in the monthly profile.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of September on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 22246 spot and the POC is at 22405
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 20490 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 22444 spot and the POC is at 21595
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 23576 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 22163 spot and the POC is at 22087
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 21615 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 20918 spot and the POC is at 21164
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 21430 F.

The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 18780 spot and the POC is at 19633
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 19035 F.

The VWAP of the April 2020 series is at 19605 spot and the POC is at 19710
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 21380 F.