The Month of December was again 2 timeframes like most of 2015 was. And we got a balanced yearly profile to round things off. Earlier at the start of the month, we ran a poll on the expected yearly close as the Nifty stood between the dpoc of 8300 versus the 2014 POC of 7550 and the yearly close was in between the 2 POC’s after a rebound from 7550 dot.
Here is the Nifty chart of the year 2015:
Based on the yearly profile shown above, we summarize:
a) Bears have the slight edge for now and assume full control below 7400 for 6800 and 6460 during the year.
b) Roughly over 8480 spot we should be in a long setup for 9000 with stops below 8250 spot
c) A long breakout above 9050 should take the index to 10190 and 10670 during the year. Current volumes are not suggesting that we will go beyond 10600 in 2016.
d) It could also be a 2-time frame market again in 2016 at least in the first few months with the bias in favor of sellers as long as the trade is below 8330 on a weekly closing basis.
e) Charts do not project a break of 6000 during 2016.
f) Our Nifty range for 2016 is 6000- 10600 if we get a breakout from the 2015 profile of 7500- 9100.
And the BankNifty charts from 2015:
Some observations based on the 2 charts above:
a) Bias is in favor of bears till we do not close above 18700 weekly.
b) 20400 is tgt 1 if we do manage a strong close above 18700
c) If we do get a breakout above the 2015 range we see it extend to 24400 and 25800 roughly with 18700 serving as a reference area for the breakout f it comes about
d) We are looking for a close below 2014 POC or roughly 15200 for the bears to take full control of the BanKnifty
e) If that happens we should see 13400 first followed by 12260 and eventually 10900.
f) 10900 – 25800 is the expected range for 2016 if we get a break from the 2015 profile.
There we go…
You have my yearly hypos above and as the weeks and the months roll down we will divide the larger yearly into monthly and weekly and daily hypos. Stay tuned.
Wish you the best for 2016.