Last week the settlement for the November series was just under the November vwap of 7926. The weekly close of Friday was at the 7930- 50 supply zone mentioned and did not give a decisive direction cue. However, we lean on the 7875- 7895 spot VAH to give us a support on any dip for a move to 8100 in the coming week. Our bias is positive on a trade above 7875 spot in the coming week.
Last week’s report can be assessed here : http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-23-nov-27-nov15/
Should we move above the supply band of 7930-50 in the coming week and continue above the VAL marked in the chart below , the auction can move to 8090 in the coming week, a point we had noted in last week’s post as well.
Nifty TPO chart :
On Monday and Tuesday of the week gone by we remained in range of Friday’s auction. However, the seller was not able to effectively break the lows of Friday and on Thursday and Friday we had moves off the open price in the index which took it to close at session highs on both days.
In the week to come we are watching the VAH near 7895 to support buying efforts even though there is supply at 7950 spot. We remain bullish above 7950 with stops below 7875 for 8090 in the coming week.
However if 7875 is broken the index can start a drop to 7796 and even 7665 if that does not hold.
Banknifty TPO chart:
At the beginning of the November series in our weekly post we had mentioned that strong sellers seem to have come in the BN at 17900 + levels. That chart from that post can be referenced at here : http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BN_weekly4.png
We stayed below 17800 all of November. However profile tells us that those shorts have covered and not rolled positions into the DEC series.
We see 17510 as a reference point in the coming week above which the index should make a sharp move to 17700 and 17820.
Support lower is at 17216 and the prominent POC at 17070.However should these 2 supports not hold, the index can drop down again to 16660 kind of levels.
We have used quantitative analysis and the principles of Auction market Theory to arrive at our levels. For running updates of the daily and weekly moves and to join our community visit – Vtrender Trading Room