OrderFlow charts and Notes 27/10/14

[08:49]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:49]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-27th-oct/
[08:50]   Porus : GM
[08:50]   Sharad : GM all
[08:50]   r m : NF HypoAbove 8022➜8056➜8082➜8112 (Stop 7989)Below 7988➜7962➜7932
[08:51]   r m : BNF Hypo Above 16550➜16630➜16710 Below 16540➜16470➜16380➜16270➜16050
[09:06]   Manik : gm rm
[09:07]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:07]   Shai : GM all
[09:09]   r m : Hi Manik
[09:11]   Kathir : good morning all friends
[09:11]   Amit J : GM
[09:14]   Chiranthan : Sl for BNF pe is 16610 spot?
[09:15]   Shai : yes
[09:15]   Chiranthan : ok
[09:16]   Shai : FP chart of Nov is added next to the MP chart
[09:17]   Shai : as it is expiry week try to see both deltas
[09:26]   Shai : in NF 8022 is the ref line for the upauction
[09:27]   Shai : open is after a break
[09:27]   Shai : so NF may just hang out for some time
[09:27]   Shai : BNF 16470 is ref line for the auction
[09:29]   Shai : First 15 min activity- 8000 ce seems to be dropping and 8000 pe becoming major
[09:33]   Sumit : Shai, please adjust the candle size one font up
[09:35]   Shai : better?
[09:35]   Shai : we have to let go of the BN put if 16400 F does not break
[09:36]   Sumit : yes thank you
[09:36]   Shai : Though Vix is expected to climb into expiry and that will cushion the time decay
[09:37]   Chiranthan : spot price for bank nifty not getting updated
[09:37]   r m : bn spot at 16521
[09:37]   Chiranthan : ok thanks
[09:38]   r m : welcome
[09:38]   Shai : Yes seems to be a signal error
[09:38]   Shai : esignal is behaving like the typical office goer not wanting to come to work today 🙂
[09:39]   r m : lol
[09:41]   r m : bnf crawling up with negative delta, slightly positive in NOV
[09:41]   r m : NF oct and nov cancelling each other – maybe rollover time
[09:42]   Shai : yes
[09:43]   Shai : IN NF it is better to look for signs of the vwap band expanding before taking a new intra trade
[09:44]   Shai : vet falt with vwap bands at 8045-8023 which will restrict movemnt
[09:44]   Shai : *flat
[09:45]   Manik : @ SHAI pnb levels please
[09:48]   Shai : pnb at 924 supp
[09:48]   Shai : break of 924 will give 905
[09:48]   Shai : strong res at 950- 51 all this week
[09:49]   Shai : and most probably will be sell on rises it is gets to 951
[09:49]   Manik : tnx shai
[09:51]   Shai : wc
[09:55]   Shai : BNF can run to 166640
[09:55]   Shai : shorts careful
[09:55]   Shai : operating in the single prints of wed
[09:55]   r m : with that extra 6, shorts will commit harakiri 🙂
[09:56]   Shai : lol
[09:59]   Kathir : lol
[10:00]   Shai : mixed auction still
[10:00]   Shai : clearly the mkt not in sync yet
[10:00]   Shai : on wed we have the FOMC and thurs is expiry
[10:01]   Shai : so today and tom will be rollover time
[10:05]   r m : @Shai, BN spot touched 16610, stop for PE is triggered or we wait for close above 16610?
[10:07]   r m : BNF Hypo 1 first target 16630 done
[10:08]   Kathir : bonus other 25 also
[10:08]   r m : 🙂
[10:08]   Kathir : moving towards that 710
[10:08]   r m : yeah
[10:09]   Shai : exit the pe
[10:09]   r m : Thanks
[10:10]   Kathir : manik can enter bnf around 16700 bnf range i guess
[10:10]   Kathir : pnb
[10:10]   Kathir : with shai’s Sl
[10:11]   Kathir : @shai supp and ress for usd/inr swing please
[10:13]   Shai : 61.04- 61.26- 61.57
[10:13]   Shai : same as last week
[10:14]   Shai : usdinr is coiled here and may not give a big move till wed
[10:15]   Kathir : ok shai thanks
[10:18]   r m : wednesday is currency expiry, so big move may come only in NOV series then
[10:18]   Shai : wc
[10:19]   Shai : yes
[10:19]   Kathir : ok ge
[10:19]   Shai : BNF a short covering move from 16550
[10:19]   Shai : 16710 was the estimate
[10:20]   Kathir : now what from here shai bnf?
[10:20]   Kathir : wait for delta?
[10:20]   r m : (*** Private to Kathir ) @Kathir, hope you checked your email, I mailed the Thursdy data long time back 🙂
[10:21]   Shai : may come down a bit and run up to 16720 spot
[10:21]   Shai : 16630 is supp
[10:28]   Shai : RM your data provider updating spot prices?
[10:28]   r m : @Shai, I steal data from NEST trader 🙂
[10:29]   r m : with a capture utility
[10:29]   Shai : 🙂 ok
[10:29]   Shai : Seems esignal is having an issue today
[10:29]   r m : ok
[10:29]   Shai : Most of the time they place it on NSE
[10:29]   Shai : so was wondering
[10:30]   r m : nse’s link with brokers is working that is how indices are updated in trading softwares
[10:30]   r m : maybe some issue with their link to data providers
[10:32]   Shai : could be or just esignal
[10:44]   Amit J : shai any view on expiry?
[10:46]   Rahul G : shai wht are two red lines in BN
[10:46]   Rahul G : 16569 and 16632
[10:48]   Shai : Half a min break trying to get spot prices to update
[10:48]   Shai : Rahul they are ref areas based on last week’s au ction and get updated based on today’s data prices
[10:50]   Shai : There will always be 2 lines now on screen and if the mkt stays abv 1 line it is positive and below the other it is negative for bias only
[10:51]   Shai : Amit looking at 7920- 8070 spot to begin with with center around 8000
[10:54]   Kathir : @shai half minute over :)please come back
[10:55]   r m : 🙂
[10:56]   r m : NF and BNF waiting at almost the same place waiting for Chart’s return 🙂
[10:56]   Kathir : 🙂
[10:57]   Kathir : or they are waiting for us to enter some position
[10:57]   r m : lol
[10:58]   Kathir : bnf all time high today?
[10:59]   Shai : back 🙂
[11:00]   Narendra : IVs of most active PEs jumped sharply today.
[11:00]   r m : @Kathir, BNF has made it a habit to score all time highs!
[11:00]   r m : Diwali was an exception
[11:01]   Kathir : oh great
[11:04]   Shai : Ce’s also Narendra from 7900 to 8100
[11:04]   Shai : http://screencast.com/t/DDx27g5ZWtH
[11:05]   Shai : vix was up to 13.30
[11:05]   Kathir : means more volatility expected for settlment ?
[11:06]   Narendra : due to fomc coming this weak
[11:06]   Shai : yes plus fomc which has to decide on QE this week
[11:07]   Shai : all world markets will wait for that now
[11:07]   Kathir : ok
[11:07]   Shai : Gen big investors don’t put money on the table till a big decision is out of the way for clarity
[11:08]   Shai : so wha happens if a pruning of positions and adjustment of risk
[11:08]   Shai : *is
[11:08]   Amit J : also brasil election result
[11:09]   Kathir : haryana mp and brazil now 🙂
[11:09]   Shai : suggest a aggressive short in NF for 8020/ 8004 with sl of 8046 here at 8034
[11:09]   Shai : Brazil election is too tight I think
[11:10]   Shai : latest opinion polls were 51- 49 in favor of the current person
[11:11]   Shai : BNF small short below 16630 for 16590 and 16570 with sl of 16676
[11:11]   r m : Modi tweeted his congrats to @dilmabr on her re-election
[11:11]   r m : that means results are out?
[11:11]   Shai : passive selling has increased backed by aggressive delta which is neg
[11:15]   Shai : Yes Modi is always quick 🙂
[11:15]   Shai : http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/us-brazil-election-idUSKCN0IE03L20141027
[11:15]   Shai : narrow win
[11:15]   r m : ok
[11:16]   Shai : stocks there are down 6%
[11:17]   Shai : they wanted change
[11:20]   Kathir : they wanted change but did not vote 🙂
[11:21]   r m : stock market wanted change, unfortunately they have less votes then others, she is a leftist 🙂
[11:23]   r m : latin american countries vote like India, Argentina, once a prosperous nation, was run down by popular Peron family
[11:24]   Kathir : ok
[11:26]   Kathir : realtives to nehru family ?
[11:26]   r m : lol
[11:26]   r m : may be unofficially 😀
[11:27]   Kathir : lol
[11:27]   Kathir : they always wanted to rule the country like kings and do as much damage as possible
[11:27]   Shai : 3 names have come in the black money case : Pradeep Burman, Pankaj Chamanlal Lodhiya andRadha S Timblo
[11:28]   Kathir : oh god poor guys
[11:28]   Manik : no politicians ???
[11:28]   Kathir : manik from now these three will become politicians dont worry
[11:28]   Shai : it is being given to us in installments 🙂
[11:28]   Manik : 🙂
[11:29]   r m : 🙂
[11:29]   Kathir : next list RM MANIK and etc
[11:29]   r m : lol
[11:29]   Manik : LOL
[11:30]   r m : I will be very happy to have a swiss account – will donate 90% to GOI 🙂
[11:30]   Manik : i am taking kathir for a cup of coffee immly:)
[11:30]   r m : 🙂
[11:31]   Kathir : @RM ou need not give 90% to GOI they will take 100 % from you
[11:31]   r m : 🙂
[11:31]   Kathir : nf -430
[11:32]   Manik : rather than giving it to gov , DBT to my account
[11:32]   r m : those folks who are paying fine are allowed to keep the account 🙂
[11:32]   Kathir : oh is it?
[11:32]   Kathir : @manik to your swiss account or indian account?
[11:32]   Shai : 8022 break only will create further fall
[11:33]   Shai : There is a tax planned in Hungary for using the internet !!
[11:33]   Shai : internet tax
[11:33]   r m : 🙂
[11:33]   Kathir : oh
[11:33]   Shai : Lots of sellers have come in NF from 10.30
[11:34]   Shai : but vwap band says it is under avg volumes
[11:35]   Kathir : @shai where is the othe red line downside for both?
[11:35]   Shai : 8020- (11:09) Shai :suggest a aggressive short in NF for 8020/ 8004 with sl of 8046 here at 8034
[11:36]   Shai : exit if small qty or keep tsl at 8037
[11:36]   r m : only managed pre-diwali close so far
[11:36]   r m : NF
[11:37]   Shai : almst tere- (11:11) Shai :BNF small short below 16630 for 16590 and 16570 with sl of 16676
[11:40]   Amit J : shivsena joins bjp
[11:41]   Amit J : good for mkts
[11:41]   r m : that was known to everyone except Saamna editor 🙂
[11:43]   Amit J : this kind of news mkt waits for final announcement as no one believes politicians
[11:45]   r m : yeah, can’t blame them 🙂
[11:51]   Porus : @shai, what are ST levels for HUL?
[12:00]   Shai : cash?
[12:00]   Porus : futures
[12:06]   Shai : Hindlever res defined at 760.8 now in F and 754.13
[12:06]   Shai : 743.7 and 737.1 are supp
[12:07]   Shai : looks like a sell on rise and can be a good short at 754
[12:07]   Porus : Thanks
[12:08]   Shai : today’s high could be a short term top there and has to move lower to atract buyers
[12:08]   Shai : welcome
[12:13]   Shai : Results today in HLL – be cautious
[12:17]   Porus : yes
[12:19]   Narendra : banknifty shorts should exit or hold
[12:22]   Shai : exit at 16635
[12:23]   Anay : BNF longs unwinding today?
[12:24]   Shai : yes
[12:24]   Anay : how days today’s delta stand compared to long build up last week? NF and BNF both
[12:24]   Anay : *does
[12:25]   Shai : NF was positive on wed but down today and BNF is eeing profit booking from past 2 sessions
[12:25]   Anay : ok
[12:26]   Shai : It’s expiry week and we are looking at both nova nd oct F
[12:26]   Anay : yes
[12:28]   Amit J : shai how are rollover premum. does it makes sense to roll now or wait for expiry
[12:32]   Shai : still high- should come down a bit tom
[12:32]   Shai : NF back in IB
[12:32]   Shai : shorts would get squeezed abv 8036
[12:38]   Kathir : enter long above 8036 shai?Sl and trgt is so?
[12:40]   Shai : sl will be 8022 and tgt 8052
[12:41]   Kathir : ok thanks
[13:01]   Shai : shorts are holding their own now
[13:02]   Shai : still a flat vwap and vwap bands are tight
[13:02]   Shai : with under avg vlume of 46 lakhs only
[13:03]   Shai : so even though delta is at -500 it is still not a huge qty of shorts
[13:03]   Kathir : but bnf shai?
[13:03]   Kathir : -351 now new shaorts created?
[13:04]   Shai : yes they are but not on huge volumes
[13:04]   Kathir : ok
[13:04]   Shai : 17 lakhs traded vol size
[13:17]   r m : NF delta reaching minimum everytime Shai’s rekha is near!
[13:21]   Shai : just to give an idea on the expected volumat at this point based on 20 day avg :http://screencast.com/t/MFgBcnoTx
[13:23]   r m : pre-FOMC avoidance by big funds
[13:23]   Shai : which is why everytime we hit the vwap band we will not penetrate it
[13:23]   Shai : as vol is under avg
[13:24]   r m : so till something breaks, buy at 8022 is a better option?
[13:24]   Shai : (09:44) Shai :very flat with vwap bands at 8045-8023 which will restrict movemnt
[13:24]   Shai : yes RM
[13:24]   r m : Thanks
[13:24]   Shai : since that FA at 7752 this NF has bought all dips
[13:25]   r m : ES was going down when 7752 happened
[13:26]   Manik : any chance of visiting 7752 aagian
[13:26]   r m : now a days ES is not sure where to go 🙂
[13:26]   r m : Big Bear speaketh 🙂
[13:26]   Manik : 🙂
[13:31]   Manik : @ rm cnx it ?
[13:36]   r m : CNX IT’s sole purpose in life seem to be balancing BNF 🙂
[13:36]   Manik : 🙂
[13:37]   Shai : 7752 F is on day T+4
[13:37]   Shai : looks diff to revisist again
[13:37]   Shai : In which case FA theory states tat it is a big supp for the near term
[13:38]   Manik : ok shai
[13:39]   r m : CNX-IT is 900 points down from high of 11633
[13:42]   r m : this time NF delta not picking up even at the lows
[13:45]   Manik : @ rm tnx
[13:45]   r m : @Manik, for what? 🙂
[13:46]   Manik : vwap band holds still
[13:46]   r m : yeah, Shai not generating enough volumes to break vwap band!
[13:49]   Kathir : -700 nf
[13:50]   Manik : @ rm kathir back from lunch
[13:50]   r m : yeah 🙂
[13:50]   Manik : so vwap under theat 🙂
[13:50]   Manik : *threat
[13:51]   Kathir : i thought its treat..
[13:51]   r m : @Kathir, -420 in NOV series 😀
[13:51]   Manik : 🙂
[13:51]   Kathir : oh
[13:52]   r m : both series aggressive selling but not enough to bend the vwap bend!
[13:52]   Kathir : where is the next red lines for both?
[13:52]   Kathir : shai rekha lines
[13:53]   Kathir : manik vwap treat
[13:53]   Kathir : bnf
[13:54]   r m : now the NF bend is expanding, looks like Manik has applied full pressure now!
[13:55]   Kathir : yeah he is trying from morning nad gets active now
[13:55]   Manik : yeah with help from guruji from dun
[13:55]   r m : lol
[13:55]   Kathir : thats why i told you guys are in the next black money list 🙂
[13:56]   r m : 😀
[13:58]   Kathir : @rm three idiots (black money) one says that account is not mine
[13:58]   r m : NF is making 15-17 points gyrations, could go back to IBL this time
[13:59]   Kathir : dabur ceo says that account was started when i was an NRI
[13:59]   r m : 🙂
[13:59]   r m : dud accounts 🙂
[14:00]   Kathir : 🙂 what will they do if someone says that account is not mine..?
[14:00]   Kathir : they cant take the money without the depositors knowledge right?
[14:00]   r m : they should confiscate the peanuts in those accounts 🙂
[14:00]   r m : if nobody claims the account
[14:01]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:01]   Kathir : if you want to go to swiss free of cost..tell them i have an account in swiss bank
[14:01]   r m : account holders are in catch-22 situation – owning up means jail or penalty, disowning means poverty 🙂
[14:01]   Kathir : lol
[14:03]   Kathir : now they will decide -penalty is better than poverty
[14:04]   Kathir : few x ministers from Tamilnadu will be there sure
[14:04]   r m : yeah, i read somewhere that many folks are already in the process of paying penalty and getting the balance – they won’t be prosecuted so their names also stay secret
[14:05]   Kathir : oh ultimate aim is to bring the money back so excuse
[14:05]   Kathir : -810 nf
[14:06]   r m : pink OF, red delta, both aggressive and limit traders are selling, then who is buying? 🙂
[14:07]   Kathir : no chance for short covering also here
[14:07]   r m : vwap band has travelled 5 points in last two hours – guess tortoise need not race any more with rabit, we have got a substitute – vwap band!
[14:08]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:08]   Shai : without a doubt shorts have come in today in NF
[14:08]   Shai : the only Q is how many of them are day trders
[14:08]   Shai : that we will know only by close delta
[14:09]   r m : ok
[14:09]   Kathir : @shai shall we buy soem pe for tomrw if delta is more than – 500?
[14:09]   Kathir : eve
[14:10]   Chiranthan : Is the BNF 16500 pe worth buying ?
[14:12]   Shai : Chiranthan not now but let’s wait for the close
[14:12]   Shai : Kathir let’s ecide at close
[14:12]   Chiranthan : ok
[14:12]   Kathir : ok shai
[14:13]   r m : cnxit trying to dig deeper
[14:14]   Kathir : 13:36 r m: CNX IT’s sole purpose in life seem to be balancing BNF 🙂
[14:14]   r m : nobody trades in it, still it keeps on going up and down 🙂
[14:15]   Kathir : then we should enter trading
[14:16]   Kathir : bnf long cnx it short
[14:16]   Kathir : or op
[14:16]   Kathir : opp
[14:16]   r m : spread is huge for cnxit
[14:16]   r m : 15 point diff today in ask and bid
[14:17]   Kathir : yeah that shows poor volume
[14:17]   Kathir : only 6875 traded
[14:19]   Shai : ST view on spot “The marked finished a full session above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot. Support now placed at 7920 spot this week.Below 7920 the market can once again drop a 100 points to 7827 quickly. 8060 spot is now short term resistance.”
[14:19]   Shai : update : 7998 pivot on spot
[14:20]   Shai : BN spot : “Support for the BN spot is now at 16300 spot this week followed by 16128. Resistance to the upside would be 16560 and 16720 this week.”
[14:21]   Kathir : 720 resi bnf active now and nearest for trading
[14:21]   Shai : 16560 res has turned into minor supp and cushioned that fall just now
[14:23]   Shai : we will go with a 7950 put if this delta stay
[14:24]   Shai : tgt of the move would be 7962 F or 7930 F
[14:27]   r m : 8000 spot on test
[14:28]   Kathir : @rm nf spot high shows 8064?
[14:29]   Kathir : but fut 8061.5 only
[14:29]   r m : yeah
[14:30]   r m : must be the irrational exuberance shown in cash market at open )
[14:30]   r m : 🙂
[14:30]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:31]   Kathir : red rekha @ 16569
[14:31]   Kathir : tested
[14:31]   r m : 7999
[14:35]   Manik : @ rm guruji 7962 kal kyon, aaj ka din bhi acha hai!!!
[14:38]   r m : yeah, somebody tell it to vwap band too 😀
[14:39]   Manik : 🙂
[14:40]   Shai : 8004 was the vwap of wed
[14:40]   Shai : not many selelrs below 8004 yet
[14:43]   Shai : hll below 737 supp – came back from 751 thereabout
[14:45]   Kathir : bnf strugling between shai;s red lines
[14:46]   r m : red cage!
[14:46]   Kathir : yeah wonderfull
[14:46]   Kathir : when it broke it went 30 points down staright away
[14:58]   Shai : IV change- http://screencast.com/t/eb1lmYmMH3
[15:01]   Kathir : shai what it suggestes now
[15:03]   Manik : @ rm some intraday shorts have covered ?
[15:05]   r m : looks like that
[15:05]   Shai : Manik about 10- 15%
[15:06]   Shai : From an AMT perspective coming back in wed value would mean we go lower to check the gap zone
[15:06]   Shai : hence advisisng that 7950 put
[15:06]   Chiranthan : buy in the end
[15:07]   Shai : BNF acted weird
[15:07]   Manik : ok shai !!!!
[15:07]   Shai : Can buy now Chiranthan
[15:07]   Chiranthan : ok
[15:07]   Shai : sl will be 8036 tom
[15:07]   Shai : 8036 of F
[15:07]   Shai : tgt 7962 F
[15:28]   Shai : anyone else facing connnectivity issues with omnovia?
[15:28]   Chiranthan : no
[15:28]   Narendra : no
[15:28]   Porus : no
[15:28]   r m : we are all well-connected 🙂
[15:29]   Kathir : NO
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Chiranthan : Bye
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:30]   Clay : bye
[15:32]   Narendra : bye
[15:43]   Kathir : THANKS AND BYE ALL