OrderFlow charts and Notes 31/10

[08:47]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:47]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-31st-oct/
[08:47]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-301014/
[08:48]   r m : NF Hypo1 Above 8214➜8245-8251 (SL 8179) Hypo2 Below 8179➜8146(SL 8203)
[08:48]   r m : BNF Hypo1 Above 16885➜17000➜17210 (SL16818) Hypo2 Below 16788➜16696All levels NOV Futures
[08:51]   r m : Results today – M&M, NMDC, NTPC, GAIL, ITC
[08:56]   Clay : gm all
[08:56]   Sharad : GM all
[09:04]   Amit J : trade long in INR
[09:04]   Amit J : MS just came out with a positive report
[09:04]   Amit J : We think the USD/INR spot range will be maintained in the near term and recommend rolling into longer tenor NDFs given the rising expectations of interest rate cuts
[09:08]   Shai : GM all
[09:09]   Porus : GM
[09:09]   r m : Thanks Amit
[09:10]   Amit J : GM
[09:10]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:14]   Amit J : long in INR mein appreciation
[09:14]   r m : short in USDINR?
[09:15]   Amit J : will come down
[09:15]   r m : Thanks
[09:24]   Shai : in usdinr short is better below 61.52
[09:24]   Shai : then tgt 61.32/ 61.10
[09:24]   r m : OK, Thanks
[09:24]   Rahul G : hello all gm
[09:24]   Clay : these gapups and new settelement are making it extremely difficult for intraday traders
[09:25]   Shai : true
[09:25]   Shai : 8222 spot res
[09:25]   Shai : same as 8245/8251 of hypo 1
[09:29]   Anay : ok
[09:31]   Shai : abv day high an intra day spil off may still go to 8280
[09:32]   Shai : but auctuon should be an OAOR and quiet
[09:32]   Shai : *auction
[09:32]   Shai : BNF 16860 sl tgt 17000/ 17055
[09:33]   Shai : 16815 is a better sl but auction should not come below 16860 on this open now
[09:36]   Shai : If w estay abv 17000 today we could open 17210 on mon
[09:37]   Shai : turning into a drive
[09:38]   Shai : No point calling atop yet in NF
[09:38]   Shai : Value is marching higher
[09:38]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/NF_Compo118.png
[09:38]   Clay : determined buying Nifty
[09:49]   Shai : 8280/ 8297 bj of the move now’
[09:50]   Shai : we are spending the ope abv 8245
[09:50]   Shai : *obj of the move
[09:51]   Shai : strong move in Nifty abv 7920 spot last few days
[09:51]   Shai : 300 points
[09:51]   Shai : not great delta and not much movemnent in usdinr
[09:56]   Shai : confirmed now it’s a drive not an OAOR
[09:57]   Shai : vwap is the key to hold in NF and BNf
[09:57]   Shai : longs can be taken at vwap with a stop at 8245
[09:57]   Chiranthan : missed buying bnf. can I enter now?
[09:57]   Shai : yes
[09:57]   Shai : sl can be just below last swing low of 16874
[09:58]   Chiranthan : ok
[09:58]   Shai : we will rely on buyers to hold vwap all day in keeping with the open type
[10:01]   Shai : MO at 34 – no hear yet : http://vtrender.com/desi-mo-mcclellans-oscillator-for-nse-30th-oct-2014/
[10:01]   Shai : *heat
[10:03]   Anay : what is a “high” level for MO?
[10:03]   Shai : +65
[10:03]   Anay : ok
[10:04]   Shai : puts can be bought at +65 and calls at -65
[10:04]   Shai : It’s an extremely rewardig trade with a 1 week horizon
[10:04]   Shai : can go to -80/85 which is the upper boundary in many cases but also an addition point
[10:05]   Porus : Shai, which security?
[10:05]   Shai : Nifty
[10:12]   Anay : ok cool…thanks
[10:12]   Anay : So it was -60 at 7750?
[10:13]   r m : http://vtrender.com/desi-mo-mcclellans-oscillator-for-nse-16th-oct-2014/
[10:14]   r m : exactly!
[10:17]   Narendra : shai view on lichsg
[10:23]   Sharad : Shai can’t see NF please adjust
[10:24]   Clay : ES on move in overnight session 1998-looks like will screw overnoght beras and make new highs today
[10:25]   Clay : sorry for bad language
[10:26]   Clay : so DAX open also likely to be strong?
[10:26]   r m : it made a low of 1960 yesterday, i guess fred bear-steaks already being served there 🙂
[10:26]   r m : *fried
[10:26]   Clay : 🙂
[10:28]   r m : nearing 17K time to book part
[10:29]   Anay : Thanks rm
[10:30]   r m : welcome 🙂
[10:31]   Clay : This is a Diwali rally spilling over into Thanksgiving 🙂
[10:31]   r m : 🙂
[10:33]   Clay : ES 2000
[10:34]   Clay : ap_pune has called this Nifty rally spot on_twitter handle ap_pune
[10:36]   Clay : recommended buying Nov 8000 and 8100 CE at bottom
[10:37]   Clay : Nov 8000 Ce from 81 to 314 !!!
[10:38]   r m : yes, good spotting by him, Kris and @ranajayb
[10:39]   Porus : Shai, levels for L&T ST and MT pls
[10:40]   Clay : 8300!!! talk about speed
[10:41]   Clay : buyers in a hurry
[10:46]   r m : Trading is like wars before geneva convention, no mercy is shown to losers 🙂
[10:46]   Clay : 🙂
[10:50]   Clay : even intraday 8100 CE from LOD -184 to 240 now
[10:50]   Shai : LT moving in a channel abv 1616
[10:52]   Shai : 1645 possible
[10:52]   Porus : OK thanks.
[10:53]   Clay : thats a nice tip rm about buying intraday options when expecting a trend day
[10:53]   Shai : a break abv 1645 in the MT can bring 1714 where there are sellers
[10:53]   Clay : thanks sHAI
[10:53]   Clay : Shai sorry
[10:54]   Shai : wc
[10:54]   Shai : 🙂
[10:55]   Shai : 8308 just saw determined sellinng
[10:55]   Shai : 8274 visit coming
[10:55]   Chiranthan : sl 8308?
[10:56]   Shai : anybofy in the BN long has to part book near 17000
[10:56]   Shai : round figures attract the mkt’s attention though we should head towards 17210 by Mon as mentioned here before
[10:56]   Rahul G : shia this long is based oon red blue OF
[10:57]   Rahul G : shai* sorry
[10:57]   Shai : which long?
[10:57]   Rahul G : the BN long
[10:57]   Shai : BN long of the morning?
[10:57]   Shai : that was hypo 1?
[10:57]   Rahul G : okay
[10:58]   Shai : hypo1 levels are taken off orderflow data but projections are based on auctun market theory
[10:58]   Shai : we may not get very accurate as we move into unchartered territory but stil the rules match
[10:58]   Rahul G : okay
[10:59]   Shai : This is end of month buying
[10:59]   Shai : and profile is open drive
[10:59]   Shai : so we are looking at close at highs
[10:59]   Shai : and as mentioned vwap to hold
[10:59]   Rahul G : shai an open dive used to have an O at the bottom or above
[10:59]   Rahul G : but this profile does now
[10:59]   Shai : (09:58) Shai :we will rely on buyers to hold vwap all day in keeping with the open type
[11:00]   Clay : Shai,could one have anticipated a trend day in the morning?and bought intraday Nifty options or wait for first few min? 15 before buying intraday options playing for a trend day
[11:00]   Shai : 30 mins wait would have been enough
[11:01]   Clay : ok tks
[11:01]   Shai : Honestly if yu look back at morning cmments I inititally thought it was an OAOR then changed to Open drive
[11:01]   Sharad : 200 nifty lots ticks are started again
[11:01]   Shai : (09:37) Shai :turning into a drive
[11:02]   Shai : 17200 ce was 204 in the morning 252 now
[11:02]   Porus : Sharad, are they buyers?
[11:03]   Sharad : looks seller only
[11:03]   Anay : is today’s NF delta correct? 🙂
[11:03]   Clay : can one buy it now also looking at global liquidity and with your target 2 of 17210
[11:03]   Clay : 17200 CE
[11:04]   Shai : yes clay
[11:04]   Shai : May come today itself
[11:05]   Shai : BNf getting new legs
[11:05]   Shai : Anay it is right 🙂
[11:05]   Sharad : SBI
[11:06]   Shai : I know that NF delta is not much of a help now but it is right and just the way it is
[11:08]   Shai : I’m going to buy puts at the close in Nifty
[11:09]   Amit J : shai trending day today?
[11:09]   Shai : yes
[11:09]   Shai : close at highs
[11:09]   Amit J : also weekly close so can we expect high of the day close
[11:09]   Amit J : 🙂
[11:09]   Shai : vwap may not get visisted
[11:09]   Porus : best put would be just OTM?
[11:09]   Amit J : you read minds
[11:10]   Shai : monthly close also
[11:10]   Shai : 🙂
[11:10]   Clay : 17200 Ce up 72 % from yesterdays close
[11:11]   Shai : Rm what wa sthe high in BN spot yesterday ?
[11:12]   r m : 16776
[11:12]   Shai : thanks
[11:12]   Shai : was it over the past 3 days high?
[11:12]   Shai : is it a 3 day high is what I meant?
[11:12]   r m : yes
[11:13]   Shai : Thanks
[11:14]   r m : spot 30 minute chart, I think it will come out a balanced composite profile for last three days – http://screencast.com/t/FMcg1ZE0xEe1
[11:15]   Shai : yes thanks that wa swhat I was watching
[11:16]   Shai : spx near the 2010 level
[11:17]   Anay : @Shai should NF/BNF delta co-related with the FII Index FUT figures at EOD?
[11:17]   r m : FIIs are net buyers in Index future since 7750
[11:18]   Clay : @tomandprisha,a good market timer, expecting 2050 on SPx as fair value
[11:18]   Shai : Anay delta is for the full mkt and is for all particpants including diii, pro and retails
[11:18]   Shai : what is happening is FII on buy and res of the mkt is short’
[11:20]   Shai : This mkt is reacting to the BoJ
[11:20]   Clay : rest of the market is acting as fuel for FII’s motor to rev up
[11:21]   Shai : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2014/k141031a.pdf
[11:22]   Shai : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-31/markets-explodes-bank-japan-goes-all-er-increases-qqe-jpy-80-trillion
[11:23]   Clay : plus there is talk of ECB increasing qe in its Nov 6 meeting
[11:24]   Shai : yes looks co- ordinated
[11:24]   Clay : Also,end of month buying + beginning of month buying next week
[11:25]   r m : @Sha, this is how bn spot’s last three day composite looked – http://screencast.com/t/EyfeXyN01
[11:30]   Shai : Thanks RM well balanced
[11:30]   r m : welcome
[11:30]   Shai : 2010 is res in spx
[11:32]   Shai : just as that news broken yen crashed
[11:32]   Shai : and es went up
[11:32]   Shai : and Nifty folowed
[11:32]   Shai : http://screencast.com/t/1hqBpuznn
[11:33]   Clay : 8400 Nifty next week?
[11:34]   Clay : 200 points in 2 days
[11:35]   Clay : ppl are ignoring risk,throwing caution to wind
[11:35]   Shai : No all gains should come today and at open on Mon
[11:35]   Shai : midday Mon we should see a ull back
[11:35]   Shai : *pull back
[11:36]   Chiranthan : Put option buy on mon then?
[11:36]   Shai : buy part at close
[11:36]   Porus : 8200 pe?
[11:36]   Shai : have to do it in 2 parts as it is an aggressive trade and peculative too
[11:38]   Anay : ok
[11:39]   Sharad : NF unstoppable
[11:51]   Clay : ES 2013_2014 all time high
[11:56]   Clay : abnormal market-normal metrics don’t apply
[12:02]   Sharad : till now 197 ticks of more than 200 lots in NF and hardly 20-30 on buy side
[12:03]   Sharad : so 200 lots means 5000 NF from today
[12:05]   Sharad : i want to save it in excel and send you guys but … software guys say they do not have any option of exporting tick list
[12:07]   Sharad : i can see list of time , rate change with tick buy or sell quantity per tick
[12:07]   Shai : save it as a txt file
[12:07]   Sharad : how ? there is no option of exporting…. i can worst take print screen
[12:08]   Shai : (11:18) Shai :what is happening is FII on buy and res of the mkt is short’:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ase3dtbFwQWUdDhwdDFCSjY0cnFUM0VLY3lrMzRwLXc&usp=drive_web#gid=14
[12:08]   Shai : ok
[12:08]   Shai : Not an issue Sharad
[12:08]   Sharad : ok
[12:08]   Anay : NF VWAP current level?
[12:09]   Sharad : last tick is at 11:59:48 time so i think everything is programmed and executed by computer
[12:09]   r m : 8284
[12:13]   r m : FII vs the rest – http://screencast.com/t/hxmsR8wbHwJ
[12:14]   Shai : Long rollovers
[12:15]   Clay : sounds like a boxing match,with FII’s giving aknock out ounch to all
[12:15]   Clay : FII vs rest
[12:16]   Sharad : ES will cross life high in opening minutes only
[12:16]   r m : FIIs are hedged with stock future shorts and index PE while clients are hedged with stock future longs 🙂
[12:16]   r m : it is a madhouse 😀
[12:16]   Clay : oh ok thanks r,
[12:16]   Clay : rm
[12:18]   Clay : trailing stop loss on intraday Bank Nifty longs?
[12:21]   Shai : vwap s the safest
[12:22]   Shai : expctng a dipp in next 1 hour which will be the pull back low if vwap holds
[12:22]   Shai : then a move to highs again
[12:22]   Clay : ok thanks Shai
[12:26]   Clay : Shai.would you carry forward a Bank Nifty long over weekend?or get out near 17210 today if acheived?
[12:27]   r m : grab that 210 and run for unity 😀
[12:27]   Shai : Clay 17085 spot is my booking point
[12:27]   Shai : 17210 I’ll be happy to take
[12:27]   Shai : all I meant’
[12:31]   Clay : Previous Nifty upswings have been between 450 to 600 points
[12:33]   Clay : gap up DAX-cash not open yet
[12:37]   r m : Europe open is at 13:30
[12:38]   Clay : futures open
[12:38]   Clay : 9322 DAX
[12:38]   r m : yes, they trade all over the globe
[12:38]   r m : but prices tend to adjust when Europe opens
[12:39]   r m : just like Nifty adjusts after NSE open even though it trades in the SGX from early morning
[12:39]   Clay : right
[12:44]   Shai : av decline must be 95:5 let me check yahoo
[12:45]   Shai : 71:24
[12:45]   r m : declining volume touching 9% as of now
[12:45]   Shai : http://screencast.com/t/GQlr5HBaR
[12:46]   Shai : So that is MO at +60
[12:46]   Shai : Make enough profit between here and close so that you can buy risk free puts at the close
[12:47]   Shai : still on track for close at day high
[12:47]   Shai : 8374 obj
[12:47]   r m : MO toching 54 at current adv/dec levels
[12:47]   Shai : sl can be 8306 from here for these next 40 points
[12:47]   Shai : Thanks RM
[12:48]   Anay : @Shai enter CEs now till close or wait for a dip to VWAP?
[12:49]   Shai : can buy here
[12:49]   Shai : vwap does not get visisted on trend days
[12:50]   Shai : follow a 30 min chart with HH and HL
[12:50]   Shai : one low gets violated around 12.30 to 1.30 but that is it
[12:52]   Anay : ok
[12:58]   Shai : first day f the series and no one is backing off much from established option positions
[12:59]   Shai : vix at 13.70 at resistance
[13:00]   Shai : vix rise is on call positions being closed but that is all marginal
[13:04]   Sharad : Gold new low 1165 $
[13:07]   Sharad : one very good expert view … 8600+ nifty before 20th december …but one dip to 8100 pending
[13:12]   Clay : Bank Nifty up 1.5 % from prev close,Nifty u[ 1.74 %
[13:13]   Clay : Nifty is senior sister today
[13:13]   Clay : or equal
[13:23]   Shai : ES backing off a bit
[13:24]   Shai : Max pull back in the day has not exceeded 20 points in NF
[13:24]   Shai : so a trailing stp with 8342-20 should do fine
[13:24]   Shai : keep below 8317 just to be sure
[13:24]   Shai : tgt remains 8374
[13:25]   Shai : max pull back in BNF is 60 points
[13:25]   Shai : 17040 is trailing sl on all positions
[13:37]   Anay : tsl hit
[13:42]   Anay : 12:50 Shai : one low gets violated around 12.30 to 1.30 but that is it
[13:42]   Anay : is this it?
[13:43]   r m : That part is always known later 🙂
[13:44]   r m : there has been a volume surge in bnf between 17025-45
[13:52]   Clay : anyway great trades for intraday<avoiding overnight risk_Thanks Shai
[13:53]   r m : bnf made 3rd attack at 17100
[13:55]   Clay : in out Nifty Bank Nifty_nobody gets hurt or at risk overnight,in this volatile environment
[14:03]   r m : Angel’s rollover report http://tinyurl.com/kvsx4ng
[14:04]   Rajarshi : any views on bank of india?
[14:09]   Shai : sure Let me just pull up the chart
[14:10]   Rajarshi : tnx
[14:12]   Shai : Bankindia firm resitance at 285 in cash
[14:13]   Porus : Shai, any re-entry points in NF, BNF?
[14:13]   Shai : supply will keep coming in the 285- 292 band
[14:13]   Shai : can fall to 269/ 257 is 292 holds
[14:14]   Shai : abv 292 breakout
[14:14]   Rajarshi : thanks….
[14:14]   Shai : welcome
[14:14]   Shai : Porus trailing stops triggered
[14:14]   Clay : Shai,any statistics on average range of a trend day in Nifty,Bank Nifty?
[14:14]   Shai : let’s buy abv day high now with a 10 point stp
[14:15]   Shai : Clay every trend day is diff but BN is known to do 27- 350 ad NF 120- 160
[14:15]   Shai : 270- 350
[14:16]   Clay : ok thanks
[14:16]   Shai : @ Anay yes sl hit on that view
[14:16]   r m : This trend day is into new territories
[14:16]   Shai : I’ll look to buy abv day high again with a 10 point stop
[14:17]   Shai : I’m taking off the NF FP chart
[14:17]   Shai : Just got a mail from esignal. We ahave to adjust our volume filters on that chart again
[14:19]   Shai : have a substitute chart in place which is clsoe to what we will have on Mon
[14:20]   Shai : Regret the inconvenience
[14:20]   Shai : BN chart is just fine
[14:21]   Shai : this NF chart n screen is a quick compliation though nt very accurate
[14:22]   Shai : But shows us supply coming at 8328 + and buying/ shortcovering from the lows of today
[14:23]   Shai : We will have the correct chart on Monday in NF again and I will post the last 2 day chart on the bloh on sunday
[14:30]   Anay : ok
[14:33]   Anay : what’s current MO level?
[14:34]   r m : it is calculated EOD, should be above 50 as of now
[14:39]   Anay : ok
[14:40]   Shai : stubborn sellers holding up 8340
[14:41]   Shai : It’s more to do with teh 8300 spot round number
[14:42]   Sharad : spot 8300 crossed?
[14:43]   Clay : 1900 point rally on Bank Nifty from Oct lows
[14:43]   r m : 8298.95
[14:43]   Sharad : ok
[14:43]   Sharad : thanks RM
[14:44]   r m : 16995.85 bn spot
[14:44]   r m : like bata shoe prices 😀
[14:44]   Sharad : yeah
[14:46]   Shai : lol
[14:47]   Sharad : bnf crossed
[14:47]   Shai : 17118
[14:47]   Shai : BN always does wonders in last hour
[14:47]   Shai : 80 points nneded
[14:48]   Sharad : nf also 8300+
[14:54]   Shai : 17200 ce is 50% up
[14:55]   r m : 86% up from previous close
[14:55]   Shai : 🙂
[14:55]   Shai : spot high is still 8300
[14:57]   Shai : didn’t expect this big range from NF today
[14:57]   Shai : BNF was possible on account of the 3 day profile
[14:59]   Clay : excellent trade Shai in 17200 CE_are you carrying it over weekend?
[14:59]   r m : may spend rest of the series repairing today’s profile?
[14:59]   Shai : No Clay we will book
[15:02]   Shai : Sad that NF came down below 8317
[15:02]   Shai : now headed for close at highs
[15:02]   Shai : except those 5 points of the range break everything played to the text book
[15:03]   r m : perhaps that was stop hunting
[15:03]   Shai : yes
[15:03]   Shai : 17035/ 8312 are pull back lows for Monday
[15:04]   Shai : the bull has to defend these 2 levels in the first 2 sessions on net week to keep the bear away
[15:04]   Porus : Shai, Time to pickup some puts now
[15:04]   Porus : ?
[15:04]   Shai : Yes buy ony 50%
[15:04]   Shai : keep a little away for close and maybe some at open on Mon
[15:05]   Shai : If the month closes at a high point there is a pull back
[15:05]   Shai : But those puts get momentum only when pull back low breaks
[15:07]   Chiranthan : 8350 pe?
[15:07]   Shai : go with 8300 pe
[15:07]   Chiranthan : ok
[15:08]   Shai : no huge qty – It’s a contra setup
[15:08]   Clay : general observatiosn on firstday of new settlement,Shai,and also first few days
[15:08]   Shai : the 25 lot size helps thse setups now 🙂
[15:10]   Shai : spot is up 20 pnts in last 20 mins and NF only 10
[15:16]   Sharad : Shai can you tell res for reliance .. for tomorrow only not in hurry
[15:20]   Shai : 1010- 1014
[15:20]   Amit J : calls are flat since 2 hrs
[15:21]   Shai : yes
[15:21]   Shai : something weird in past few mins
[15:21]   Sharad : is it big or can go more upside if cross
[15:21]   Shai : has to cross 1014 for more upside
[15:22]   Sharad : if cross 1014 then which one
[15:22]   Shai : Some1 here wanted to pick RIL at 930 and I remeber mentoning 1014 as tgt ad res
[15:22]   Shai : then drive to 1120
[15:22]   Sharad : ohhh very nice thanks
[15:23]   Shai : supply from july is stilling at 1014
[15:23]   Shai : so short covering will be big
[15:23]   Sharad : i have bot call of 1000 strike @ 19
[15:24]   Sharad : so asking
[15:24]   Shai : watch 1014
[15:24]   Sharad : fine sure
[15:29]   Shai : 8356
[15:29]   Shai : NF open abv 8356 is bullish on MON
[15:29]   Shai : else we fgo to 8314
[15:29]   Shai : BNF has to cross 17187 for bullishness
[15:29]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great weekend 🙂
[15:30]   Clay : what a day !!! Thanks Shai and rm for navigating it safely
[15:30]   Shai : Pleasure 🙂
[15:30]   Porus : bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Sharad : Thanks & bye
[15:30]   Clay : bye
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:30]   Anay : bye all