As Profilers we continue to organize the market activity, in multiples of time and/or volume and this gives an individual a very good insight into market behavior for any time frame.
One of the things I like to do on a broader term perspective, is to organize the market structure on “Time cycles”
Naysayers of the theory, often put this study in line with several others which “predict the past”, but it gives me a great view of what not to consider as we look forward to the market action in the immediate short term.
I last did a post on Price N Time in July, where I said “The projection for the current IT cycle would put a high in the 5950-6000 zone in the next two months.This is considering that we have not topped out already at 5730. If the top is in place, then the market should swiftly move below 5444 in the first 15 days of the next daily cycle”
That post was made on July 24th, and the next daily half cycle produced a drop of 600 points and took the market well before 5444.
At the moment we are nearing the end of the current Intermediate term cycle which should end around the 12-20th of this month.
Have a look at this chart :
The chart shows the Nifty spot in 2 panes.
The upper pane shows the intermediate term cycle ( IT) in blue horizontal rectangles.This is a continuation of the chart last posted here.
The lower pane shows the daily half cycles in maroon colored rectangles.
About 6 half cycles or 3 daily cycles make an intermediate term cycle.
We are in the last half cycle for the current intermediate term cycle.
The current intermediate term cycle, is clearly a left translated cycle and has a striking resemblance to the earlier one from Jan to March which also was left translated and moved about 1000 points in the cycle duration.
This current cycle has done 1020 points, which is the upper extreme for any cycle.
We feel the lows of the cycle will hold over the next 10-15 days by which the new IT cycle should begin.
For any up moves, 5123 spot will be the first Resistance line on daily closing basis, above which the market can attempt a gap fill and go up to 5400 levels.
On the upper extreme, 5645 is the max the next cycle can stretch to.
We will continue to look these charts once a month from hereon.
