Weekly charts (03rd to 07th August 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (03rd to 07th Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 11214 [ 11257 / 10882 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘Staying below 11085, Nifty could revist the FA of 10953 and a break of that could start a probe towards the weekly VPOC of 10806 in the coming week(s) and on the upside, acceptance above 11086 could lead to a probe higher to 11159 / 11213 & this week’s POC of 11277′

Nifty opened the week with a OH (Open=High) start on Monday at 11058 and drove lower as it made a revisit to the FA of 10953 in the IB (Initial Balance) itself and formed a ‘b’ shape profile for the first half of the day after which it made a RE (Range Extension) to the downside in the ‘G’ period and leaving an extension handle at 10948 as it went on to make lows of 10882 in a spike close. However, this spike was rejected on Tuesday as the auction not only opened higher but left a buying tail from 10946 to 10908 in the IB and negated previous day’s extension handle of 10948 which meant that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) had now changed to the upside. Nifty made an OTF(One Time Frame) probe higher all day with a lone pull back at 11026 and closed around the highs leaving a Trend Day Up and confirming a weekly FA at 10882. This imbalance continued on Wednesday in the form of a gap up open along with yet another buying tail in the IB as Nifty made new highs for the week at 11222 but then made the dreaded C side extension which failed and this led to a FA being confirmed on the daily timeframe at 11226 after which the auction promptly completed the 1 ATR objective of 11065 to the dot before closing the day around the dPOC of 11116. Nifty opened slightly higher on Thursday and stayed above the yPOC of 11116 which indicated that the down move could be over and this was further confirmed by a small buying tail in the IB from 11152 to 11127. The auction once again made that dreaded C side extension on Thursday also but the probe lower got arrested in the morning buying tail as it left a PBL at 11139 and made a fresh RE on the upside negating the FA of 11226 and making new highs for the week at 11257 stalling below previous week’s POC of 11277 which triggered a long liquidation move as Nifty retraced the entire move up as it once again tested the morning buying tail breaking below the PBL of 11139 but took support just above the lows of the day to leave a new PBL at 11130 as it bounced back to close the day at 11200. Friday started with a probe lower which stopped right at previous day’s VAL of 11141 and for the 4th consecutive day the auction left a buying tail in the IB indicating limited downside. However, Nifty could not make any RE on the upside too and remained inside the narrow IB range of just 72 points for most part of the day before giving a small spike into the close as it hit 11232 but both the range as well as Value for the day stayed inside previous day closing the week at 11214.

The weekly profile is a trending one inspite of opening lower as the confrimation of the weekly FA at 10882 saw it tag higher highs till Thursday after which it formed a balance around this week’s prominent POC of 11190. Value for the week was overlapping to lower at 11040-11190-11232 but unlike last week, the close is near to the VAH so the PLR for the coming week remains higher till Nifty stays above 11190 with immediate targets of the weekly VPOC of 11277 & the 1 ATR objective of 11333. On the downside, acceptance below 11190 and the break of 11159 could lead to a test of the daily VPOCs of 11116 & 11045.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11238 for a rise to 11277*-333 / 11397 & 11438-449
B) The auction staying below 11183 could test 11130-116* / 11080 / 11045*-025 & 10993-969*

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11449, Nifty can probe higher to 11503 / 11537-582* & 11611
D) Below 10969, the auction can fall further to 10923 / 10882 & 10834-806**

NF (Weekly Profile)

11226 [ 11277 / 10883 ]

NF began the week with a move away from previous Value in form of a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day down on Monday as it made a low of 10883 but reversed the probe to the upside Tuesday onwards as it got back into previous week’s Value after leaving an extension handle at 11025 as it confirmed a weekly FA and made higher highs of 11226 & 11277 the next 2 days tagging previous week’s HVN before forming an inside bar on Friday leaving a nice 3-day balance to end the week at 11226. This week’s Value is overlapping to higher at 11031-11193-11268 with a prominent HVN at 11200.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (03rd to 07th Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 21754 [ 21936 / 21031 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a ‘b’ shape long liquidation one with a big selling tail from 22346 to 22668 and completely lower Value at 21700-22090-22310. The close has been below the VAL so staying below 21620 in the coming week, BankNifty would remain weak for a probe towards the daily VPOC of 21314 & the monthly VPOC of 21000. On the upside, acceptance above 21700 could see a test of higher levels of 21920 and this week’s POC of 22090

BankNifty opened the week well below 21620 with an OH start at 21544 after which it drove lower to leave a Double Distribution Trend day down with an extension handle at 21226 as it made a low of 21031 almost tagging that monthly VPOC of 21000 while taking support just above previous month’s low of 21027. The auction then negated the extension handle of 21226 on Tuesday as it left a buying tail in the IB from 21160 to 21057 and went on to form a ‘p’ shape profile as the shorts covered and in the process went on to make new highs for the week at 21576 thereby confirming a weekly FA at 21031. BankNifty then opened with a gap up on Wednesday and drove higher into previous week’s Value as it made a high of 21936 in the IB but then could not sustain above the 21920 reference marked for this week and this led to a big long liquidation drop of almost 500 points as it made a low of 21448 and closed around it. Thursday started with an OAIR start as the auction remained in previous day’s Value for most part of the day and attempts to move away on both sides were rejected as it left a buying tail at lows from 21370 to 21461 after which it probed higher but once again got rejected from 21926 to close at 21642 leaving a Neutral Centre profile. BankNifty continued this consolidation on Friday as it stayed in a narrow range of 336 points all day forming an inside bar on the daily, range wise and a double inside bar with respect to the Value Area along with an overlapping POC zone around 21600 giving a nice 3-day composite and closed just above the composite VAH of 21720.

The weekly profile is a well balanced one with mostly lower Value at 21360-21550-21780 and a prominent HVN at 21590 which could act as a magnet in the coming week unless we get an initiative move away from here. On the upside, staying above 21780 BankNifty could probe higher to 21930 & the weekly VPOC of 22090 and above it the selling tail of 22346 to 22668. However, the auction becomes weak below 21760 & could complete the 80% Rule in this week’s Value.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 21780 for a probe to 21850-930 / 21980 / 22056-090* / 22165*-202 & 22294*-345
B) Staying below 21760, the auction could test 21690-610 / 21535-450 / 21390-300 & 21244-184

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22345, BankNifty can probe higher to 22420-530 / 22606-670 / 22760-850 / 22911-944 & 23027-122
D) Below 21184, lower levels of 21093-021 / 20953-880 / 20774-640 / 20570-445 & 20390 could come into play

Additional Weekly Hypos

E) If 23122 is taken out, the auction can further rise to 23181-260 / 23333-450 / 23565-624 / 23716-822 & 23901-950
F) Break of 20390 could lead to a fall to 20310 / 20211* / 20100-031 / 19890 / 19780 & 19648-5600

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

21771 [ 22000 / 21085 ]

BNF also began the week by opening with a gap down & probing lower as it made a low of 21085 on Monday but similar to NF, it reversed the probe to the upside over the next 2 days as it got back into previous week’s Value confriming a weekly FA and went on to tag 22000 on Wednesday where it stalled and left a FA on the daily time frame marking the end of the upmove leading to a retracement to 21370 on Thursday before it bounced back to make a high of 21969 on the same day indicating presence of opposing forces in the market. Friday formed a balanced profile in a narrow range of just 400 points as BNF continued to build volumes around the 21600 zone leaving a balanced weekly profile with a prominent POC at 21608 antd a close at 21771. This week’s Value was mostly lower at 21392-21608-21824.