Weekly Charts (05th to 09th April 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (05th to 09th Apr 2021)

Spot Weekly – 14835 [ 14984 / 14459 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a narrow 266 point one due to the 2 holidays with Value being completely inside at 14694-14742-14790 and has a prominent POC at 14742 along with a buying tail from 14670 to 14507 which would be the important references on the downside for the coming week whereas staying above 14878, the levels to watch on the upside would be the daily VPOCs of 14986 & 15283 and in between them the weekly FA and positional reference of 15052′

Nifty started the week with an Open Drive Down on Monday as it initiated the 80% Rule in previous week’s balanced Value Area in the ‘A’ period itself and left an extension handle in as early as the ‘B’ period just below the weekly POC of 14742 indicating aggressive intent by the sellers after which it not only completed the swipe through the weekly Value of 14790 to 14694 but got into previous week’s buying tail of 14670 to 14507 forming a large IB range of 290 points where it made a low of 14559. However, the auction continued to trend lower making couple of REs (Range Extension) in the ‘C’ & ‘D’ periods as it made a low of 14459 and seemed to be stalling after tagging the PBL (Pull Back Low) of 14474 it left on 26th Mar and more confirmation of the downside probe being completed came as the OTF (One Time Frame) stopped and the second half of the day saw a retracement to 14681 before closing around the dPOC of 14631 leaving a huge 390 point range and a ‘b’ shape profile. Tuesday saw a higher open and formed Value above 14631 after leaving a small buying tail in the IB which meant that the initiative sellers of Monday had all but booked out as Nifty got accepted in Monday’s big IB range and in the process almost completed the reverse 80% Rule on the weekly Value as it made a high of 14779. The auction then made a fresh move to the upside on Wednesday with the help of an initiative buying tail in the IB from 14758 to 14650 and went on to scale above Monday’s profile hitting new highs for the week at 14880 as it left a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a close below the POC of 14843 but made a hat-trick of higher opens on Thursday as it got accepted above 14843 and went on to tag 14950 in the IB and even tried making a RE in the ‘C’ & ‘D’ period but could only manage similar highs of 14959 which indicated exhaustion to the upside and led to a pull back to 14885 as Nifty took support above the PDH (Previous Day High) confriming a PBL in the ‘G’ period. The auction then made a fresh RE to the upside in the ‘I’ period to hit 14984 almost tagging the 16th Mar VPOC of 14986 but could not continue further as it got back into the IB and this time the failed IB break led to a big liquidation move into the close as Nifty broke below the PBL of 14885 and made a RE to the downside as it made new lows for the day at 14821 in the ‘L’ period before closing the day at 14874 leaving a Neutral profile with a prominent POC at 14937. Friday saw the narrowest daily range the the week of just 133 points as the auction formed a Normal Day with a failed RE attempt and completely lower Value leaving yet another prominent daily POC at 14862 before it closed the week at 14835 right where it had opened.

The weekly profile is an elongated one of 525 points extending previous week’s Range & Value at both sides with the larger time frame continuing the balance it has been forming since past 4 weeks which is also seen in the overlapping Value of this week at 14631-14853-14895. The daily VPOCs of 14937 & 14986 along with the positional reference of 15052 would be the levels to watch on the upside for the coming week it Nifty gets accepted above 14853 whereas on the downside, staying below 14814 the auction has importantant references at 14774, 14654 & 14609.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 14853 for a probe to 14890 / 14937 / 14986 / 15052 / 15120 / 15153 & 15196
B) Accepting below 14814 could lead to a test of 14775 / 14737 / 14654 / 14609 / 14570 / 14514 & 14461

NF (Weekly Profile)

14889 [ 15045 / 14490 ]

NF opened the week with a big long liquidation ‘b’ shape profile on Monday as it moved away from previous week’s Value and made a low of 14490 but the selling seemed exhasuted which resulted in a short covering move over the next 3 days as the auction not only completed the 80% Rule in the weekly Value but went on to scale above the highs of the last 2 weeks as it tagged 15045 and stopped just below the FA of 15049 it had confirmed on 17th Mar and had not been tagged since then. This signalled the end of the upmove as NF formed a Neutral Day on Thursday leaving a prominent POC at 14988 and formed a nice Gaussian profile with completely lower Value on Friday but also confirmed good responsive buying coming in at 14810 as it made a failed attempt to make a RE lower before closing the week at 14889. Value for the week was slightly overlapping to higher at 14679-14903-14959 above which the daily VPOC at 14988 would be the reference along with 15049 & 15151 for the coming week whereas on the downside, NF would get weak below 14810 for a probable test of 14762 / 14685 & 14630.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (05th to 09th Apr 2021)
Spot Weekly – 32448 [ 33698 / 32141 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘This week’s range remained inside previous week’s Value hence the Value also was completely inside at 33210-33330-33750 and the weekly profile looks like a DD (Double Distribution) with the 2 HVNs at 33872 and 33330 and would need an initiative move away from one of them for the auction to change from balance mode to an imbalance in the coming week’

BankNifty gave the expected initiative move away from both the HVNs of 33872 & 33330 with a huge 1173 point IB range on Monday where it made a low of 32525 and went on to make couple of REs to the downside in the next 2 periods to tag 32330 as it held just above the buying singles of 32301 to 31730 it had left in the middle of the profile of 01st Feb which marked the end of the downside probe for the day as the auction then formed a balance giving a pull back to 32828 forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with a long selling stem. Tuesday made a higher open into previous day’s selling singles but got swiftly rejected as it went on to make a low of 32338 stalling just above previous lows indicating supply getting exhausted and this led to an equally sharp rise as BankNifty made new highs for the day at 33008 and all this action in the A period itself after which it remained in this 669 point range all day forming a Normal profile with a close around the dPOC of 32489 giving a 2-day composite ‘b’ profile with Value at 32444-32671-32782. The similar lows of the first 2 days got repaired on Wednesday at open as the auction made new lows for the week at 32141 but got swiftly rejected confirming an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) which triggered the 80% Rule in the 2-day composite as BankNifty went on to hit 33192 forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a close near the dPOC of 32998 and continued this imbalance to the upside at open on Thursday where it made a high of 33307 but left a small tail at top in the IB indicating rejection from the weekly POC of 33330 marking the end of the upmove. The auction then probed lower for the first half of the day making REs in the ‘F’ & ‘G’ periods as it made a low of 32892 taking support at previous day’s IBH which was also a ledge and gave a bounce back to 33251 in the ‘I’ period leaving a PBH there confirming that the supply at higher levels was persistant and this led to a spike lower into the close as BankNifty made new lows for the day at 32705 and carried over this downside momentum with a lower open on Friday and a further drop to 32330 which was once again held just as it did on Monday & Tuesday validating presence of demand over here and this rejection led to a big move of 642 points to 32972 in the IB stalling just below previous day’s Value. The inability of the auction to extend the range to the upside then led to a balance being formed resulting in a Normal Day with a PBH at 32829 and another ledge being formed at 32418 into the close.

The weekly profile resembles a composite ‘b’ shape with a selling tail from 33307 to 33698 with an ultra prominent POC at 32655 which would be the immediate reference on the upside in the coming session(s). Value for the week was completely lower at 32445-32655-32985 with the close being right at the lower end which means the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) continues to be to the downside but this week’s small buying tail from 32330 to 32141 in the earlier initiative demand zone of 31730 to 32301 could act as support for now and would need to be overcome.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs a drive from 32473 for a rise to 32581 / 32689 / 32829 / 32999 / 33161 / 33330 & 33490
B) Accepting below 32415, the auction could test 32301 / 32131 / 32041 / 31950 / 31774 / 31630 & 31405

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 33490, can expect higher levels of 33580 / 33675 / 33872 / 34002 / 34140 / 34405 & 34513
D) Below 31405, the auction could fall to 31230 / 31118 / 30912 / 30744 / 30625 / 30480 & 30319

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

32617 [ 33999 / 32251 ]

BNF opened lower on Monday and got rejected at 33999 as it made an attempt to get above previous week’s Value which triggered a huge drop of 1587 points in the first couple of hours as it left a selling extension handle at 33226 and made new lows for the series at 32412 in the ‘D’ period where the downmove looked a bit streched and the imbalance paved way for a balance being formed not only into the close but continued even on Tuesday as the auction formed a Normal Day after making a high of 33174 in the ‘A’ period making the ‘b’ shape profile smoother. Wednesday opened with BNF hitting new lows for the week at 32298 which was swiftly rejected confirming an ORR start and this led the auction back into the 2-day composite Value as it negated the extension handle of 33226 and went on to make a high of 33370 before closing the day at the dPOC of 33142 leaving a ‘p’ shape profile and this bounce continued on Thursday in form of a higher open which saw BNF entering into the selling tail of Monday but could only make a high of 33490 stalling right below previous week’s POC of 33495 which meant that the sellers were back. The auction then reversed the probe to the downside not just for the day as it made a low of 32851 but gave a big gap down on Friday where it made new lows for the week at 32251 but just like what happened on Wednesday, this time also there was a sharp rejection which saw BNF climbing back into previous day’s range & Value as it made a high of 33174 in the IB but could not extend any further forming yet another Normal Day for the week forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a close right at the dPOC of 32615. Value for the week was completely lower at 32595-32730-33135 as the weekly profile also represent a composite ‘b’ shape and would need fresh selling below the HVN of 32640 for a fresh move lower in the coming week whereas on the upside, BNF would need to stay above 32730 for a probable probe towards the daily VPOC of 33386 and the long weekly selling tail of 33490 to 33999.