Weekly charts (08th to 12th June 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (08th to 12th June 2020)
Spot Weekly – 9973 [ 10328 / 9544 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile which started with initiative buying went on to close near the highs and represets a composite ‘p’ shape with a long tail at lows above and the Value at 9900-10113-10173 and is all set to continue the probe higher as long as it stays above 10113 in the coming week towards the 2 ATR objectives of 10402 & 10569 from the weekly FAs of 8806 & 8896 respectively which also has the weekly VPOC of 10446 in between

Nifty opened this week with a gap up of 180 points continuing previous week’s imbalance but made an almost OH (Open=High) start at 10328 which was the first sign that the upside probe was coming to an end. The auction then made multiple REs (Range Extension) lower resulting in a 3 IB day down as it closed the entire gap and in the process leaving a Double Distribution Trend Day on Monday. This 3 IB move called for a retracement on Tuesday as Nifty made Value in the low volume zone of the DD profile and made an attempt to probe higher in the ‘F’ period which was swiftly rejected at previous days POC of 10290 which indicated that the supply was still active & this rejection led to a big fall of 270 points in the day as Nifty made new lows for the week at 10021 ending the day as a Neutral Extreme profile which again is not known to give a follow up on the next day. After 2 big range days and the imbalance from 10328 to 10021 to the downside, it was time for Nifty to return to balance on Wednesday as it formed a narrow range inside bar making a Gaussian profile in the Neutral Extreme reference of 10135 to 10021 but Value for the day was completely lower which meant that the week’s trend was still to the downside. Thursday saw imbalance returning after the auction moved away from previous day’s prominent POC of 10107 at open leading to yet another 3 IB day on the downside as it closed around the lows of 9885 and seemed to be taking support at previous week’s VAL of 9900. Just as it seemed that the 3 IB down day could give a retracement, there was an unexpected huge gap down open of 350+ points on Friday as Nifty opened below the weekly buying tail of 9802 to 9580 but gave a OL (Open=Low) start at 9544 which was the signal that the weekly trend which started with the OH on Monday has now come to an end. The auction probed higher all day as it left a long buying tail in the IB from 9658 to 9544 and made multiple REs on the upside and also left a PBL (Pull Back Low) at 9718 along with an extension handle at 9831 as it not only closed the gap but went on to tag previous day’s VAL of 9981 while making highs of 9996 to leave a Trend Day Up though Value for the day was once again lower.

Range wise, Nifty made an outside week with a 784 points elongated profile though Value was overlapping to higher at 9960-10092-10308. On the daily front, we have a nice 7-day composite from 3rd to 11th June with Value at 10002-10109-10181 so entry into this Value in the coming week could trigger the 80% Rule on the upside. On the downside, we have the spike reference of 9928 to 9996 as immediate support below which the auction could test the extension handle of 9831, the POC of 9767 & below it finally the tail from 9658 to 9544.

(Check the MPLite chart of the 7-day composite in NF)

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 10002 for a rise to 10050-92* / 10159-181 / 10259* / 10329-392
B) Immediate support is at 9936-28 and a break of this could bring 9831-9767 / 9658-04 & 9544-10

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) If 10392 is taken out, Nifty can probe higher to 10446** / 10503* / 10541-569 / 10612-661 & 10713-765
D) The auction sustaining below 9510 could move lower to 9468* / 9394 / 9330-12 / 9272*-13 & 9150-06*

NF (Weekly Profile)

9955 [ 10319 / 9582 ]

NF opened with a gap up of around 150 points on Monday but trended lower all week forming lower highs & lower lows to leave an outside bar on the weekly with overlapping to higher Value at 9936-10080-10290. The POC of this week was almost the same as previous week and would be an important reference on the upside along with the HVN of 10142 for the coming week.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (08th to 12th June 2020)
Spot Weekly – 20654 [ 21807 / 19526 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is an elongated one with tails at both ends but as the Value was completely higher at 19770-20080-20890 plus the close was well above the VAH, the PLR for the coming week would continue to remain up towards the selling tail of 21478 to 21619 and above it the FA of 21967 and finally the longer and higher selling tail of 21970 to 22544 which would also mark the 2 ATR objective of 22495 from previous week’s FA of 17311

BankNifty also opened higher this week with a gap up of 600 points as it got above the selling tail high of 21616 and and made a high of 21807 in the IB stalling just below the 30th Apr VPOC of 21853 & the 2 ATR target of 21861 from last Friday’s FA of 20425 which was a sign that the probe to the upside could be getting over. The auction then formed a small balance in the first half of the day while staying in a narrow range of just 270 points which indicated poor trade facilitation due to lack of new demand and this led to a big liquidation move starting from the ‘G’ period as BankNifty tripled the range for the day leaving a 3 IB along with a Double Distribution Trend Down profile closing the weekly gap as it made lows of 20911 before closing at 21187. Similar to Nifty, the 3 IB range extension led to a small retracement on Tuesday as BankNifty probed higher for the first half of the day but stalled right below Monday’s POC of 21604 which meant that the sellers were coming back in this zone. The auction then made a OTF (One Time Frame) move lower for the rest of the day making multiple REs as it made new lows for the week at 20629 to leave a Neutral Extreme Day Down. After 2 big range days, the auction returned to balance on Wednesday where it formed the narrowest daily range of just 580 points in June which included a spike close of almost 200 points from 21057 to 21251. Thursday open saw this spike being tested but BankNifty could not get above the spike high and once this was clear, sellers pushed their foot on the pedal once more to give a Trend Day Down making new lows for the week at 20458 but formed an overlapping POC at 20931 as it also formed a nice 2-day balance with Value at 20730-20931-21005 which would be the immediate reference for the next session. Friday saw an unexpected huge gap down of almost 1000 points in BankNifty as it made new lows for the month at 19526 but once again saw demand coming in previous week’s buying tail of 19801 to 19297 as it left a fresh buying tail from 19765 to 19526 in the IB and continued to probe higher giving a spike to 20400 in the ‘E’ period which was swiftly rejected as the auction retraced by more than 500 points to leave a PBL of 19872 in the ‘G’ period from where it started a fresh OTF move into the close as it got back in previous day’s range and tagged the VAL of the 2-day balance as it made a high of 20748 but stalled there before closing the week at 20654.

The weekly profile is once again an elongated one like the previous week with a 2281 point range and overlapping to higher Value at 20480-20870-21500 and an important HVN at 20930 which will be the first reference on the upside if we get above 20730 in the coming week and the ability to sustain above 20931 could start a fresh probe higher towards the VPOCs of 21438 & 21604. On the downside, 20480 would be the first reference below which BankNifty could test 20100 & 19650 levels.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 20730 for a probe to 20870-931* / 21005-098 / 21170-246 / 21336-438* & 21500-604*
B) The auction has immediate support at 20590 below which it could test 20515-480 / 20328-245 / 20100-071* / 19943-872 & 19765-633

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 21604, BankNifty can probe higher to 21682-786 / 21853*-967 / 22052-275 / 22350-425 & 22501-634
D) Below 19633, lower levels of 19526-397 / 19320-279 / 19157*-060** / 18990-855 & 18780-700 could come into plays

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

20624 [ 21775 / 19555 ]

BNF opened higher this week but got rejected just below the weekly HVN of 21788 as it made a high of 21775 on Monday after which it kept trending lower all week just like NF to make lower highs & lower lows as it tested previous week’s buying tail on Friday as it made a OL (Open=Low) start which finally signalled the end of the probe down as the auction made a 1173 point move up to close the week at 20624. The weekly profile is of similar range as last week of 2220 points and the Value for the week was mostly higher at 20514-20878-21502.